Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Mobilization in Russia is already underway.
Between 2024 and 2026, Russia built an infrastructure of permanent mobilization that allows it to continuously expand and replenish its armed forces without launching a politically conspicuous new nationwide mobilization campaign. After the shock of September 2022, the Kremlin appears to have concluded that a large-scale one-off mobilization creates too many risks. The system was therefore restructured so that people could be recruited continuously through different channels, with responsibility shifted to regions and businesses and without announcing a new wave of mobilization.
Legally, Russia has not returned to its pre-war system at all. The decree on “partial mobilization” issued on September 21, 2022, has not been formally revoked. This means the state has retained the legal framework that allows it to keep mobilized personnel in service and avoid starting from scratch if there is a need to sharply increase recruitment.
The main change over the past two years is that mobilization has become much more technologically advanced and tightly managed. Russia has created an electronic registry of people liable for military service, electronic draft notices, and automatic restrictions on those who ignore them. Since 2026, a significant part of military recruitment offices’ work has effectively shifted to a year-round system.
At the same time, the Kremlin has created a separate mechanism for managing reservists. In 2025, a legal framework was introduced for special training exercises for reservists, who can be deployed to protect critical infrastructure and carry out additional tasks without declaring a new mobilization. After that, regions began forming and training such reserve units. This is an important development: the state is gradually creating the ability to call up people in small waves without triggering the politically toxic scenario of “Mobilization 2.0.”
Another important change is that mobilization is being carried out through the administrative system. Formally, contracts remain the basis for recruitment, but regions receive recruitment targets, businesses are tasked with finding a certain number of candidates, and local authorities use bonuses, payments to recruiters, and pressure on employers. In some regions, direct quotas have already been imposed on businesses. In other words, the system operates not only on the principle of “those who want to sign a contract,” but through a vertical chain: the central government sets targets for the regions, and the regions pass them down to municipalities and employers.
Money remains the main incentive for now, but it is becoming less effective. That is why the pool of potential recruits is constantly expanding. Russia is actively recruiting students, foreigners, people with criminal records, debtors, and socially vulnerable groups. At the same time, pressure is increasing on people who can be quickly coerced or persuaded into signing a contract. There are documented cases of men being detained and subsequently pressured to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry.
At the same time, Russia continues to increase the authorized strength of its armed forces. The biggest jump came in 2024, when the authorized number of military personnel was increased to 1.5 million. In 2026, the authorized strength was increased several more times in smaller increments. Today, the Russian military has a total authorized strength of 2,441,630 personnel, including 1,550,500 military personnel.
Thus, Russia no longer necessarily needs to announce another large-scale mobilization. The Kremlin has created a system that allows it to continuously recruit people into the armed forces in small batches. That is why waiting for a new decree from Putin is not entirely the right approach. If the military needs more personnel, the authorities can gradually increase recruitment without creating a single major mobilization moment that everyone is waiting for.
4:51 PM · Sep 29, 2026 · 13.6K Views
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2105052928604049600
