2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Dang!  A squall line just hit me!  Buckets of rain, temperature dropped from 90+ to 60....

Some who lived in parched lands welcome a hurricane from time to time bringing rain.

The Gulf hurricane that came last month gave my farm 2 1/2" of needed rain so my cows could have some new sprouts of grass.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 29 September 2026

NHC still issuing advisories on the two small fish storms.  No impact..  Rachel off. the coast of West Mexico appears to be paralleling the coast, so less wind expected, and monsoon for folks in those parts.

Sat review indicates the significant Caribbean flare up that I thought might be lead to something fizzled.  Radar's look more like November than September.  Still doesn't mean season is over.  It does mean unless we do see some upper level changes in the Gulf/Caribbean, we may continue to see less activity, 

GFS-

1. By the 3rd, the EPac conveyor continues with the lower Baja seeing 956mB Cat 3 storm near by.  But goes westward.
2. October 10th- Model suggests anotherNor'easter forming off the NC coast, but dies out before causing any impact.
3. Around the 12th GFS suggest something brewing in the Bay of Campeche.
4. By the 14th, this disturbance strenghthens, heads generally NNE toward the FL/AL coast as a Cat 1.
5. Generally, the 15 day run shows a continued parade of strong cold fronts reaching the Gulf.  By mid month, I am guessing enough fronts will take the bite somewhat off the Hurricane fuel. 

[jmyrlefuller]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

[Bigun]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

Haven't seen a drop in my part of Texas yet and don't expect much.

[Cyber Liberty]

Haven't seen a drop in my part of Texas yet and don't expect much.

We had major rain in my corner of Arizona, but I don't think Polo had anything to do with it.  Monsoons, which haven't dropped much rain for the past several years.  A lot of street closures in my town.

[Bigun]

We had major rain in my corner of Arizona, but I don't think Polo had anything to do with it.  Monsoons, which haven't dropped much rain for the past several years.  A lot of street closures in my town.

Same in the southern part of New Mexico as reported by relatives there.

[berdie]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

So far...no much needed rain. Just hot and really humid. Maybe tommmorow.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

Brother-in-law in El Paso says it is clear skies, just like it is +300 days a year

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion-  1 October 2026.

I like to call October 1st, "Whew Day" for us Texans.  Yes celebrate.  In  150 years climatologically there has never been a Major Hurricane direct hit (Cat 3 or larger) the Texas coast.  That's not to say it could conceivably happen, but by October, we are in full blown frontal season, and 99%+ of disturbances and storms take a north and northeast turn....   and usually earlier, and at lower latitudes.

First from the NHC...  October 1st, no Hurricanes, no Tropical Storms, no Depressions....  Not even an Invest.  Hell, NHC is saying NO development expected the next 7 days. There are a couple of  decent looking wave located at 10N 25W, ,and 23N 63W...  Butr shear is tough in it's path....  It'll likely fizzle.  Most boring season ever.  Ohhh but I am fine with that.

Sat Review- Gulf quiet...  Caribbean quiet.  Strong front expected to reach pretty deep in the Gulf the next few days?  Nothing to see here.

GFS-

Now through the 6th- Cat 2 EPAC Rachel thankfully wants to move westward and weaken.  Strong front reaches well into the Gulf 1020 Mb High Pressure might dominate.  That'll be a nice infusion of cool air to take away energy.  Problem is, the model also shows some persistent low pressure in what appears to be the eastern gulf.

By the 8th, this comes to fruition, as GFS shows a depression forming off the coast near Jacksonville.

October 9th-  Depression stays small and takes an immediate eastward track.  At the same time, the Bay of Campeche disturbance (which also showed up a couple of days ago) stirs, and a system forms, and moves northward.

October 10th- Depression forms (998mB) about 80 miles east of Tampico, MX

October 11th- Samll quick storm reaches Lavaca as. a Depression

October 12th-13th- Remnant low off this depression rides the NW Gulf Coast, before fully dissapating over southern Louisiana

October 13h-  1030 mB High at Amarillo, Texas in October?  I have to see it to believe it,.  If this does ring true, we are talking about a lot of low temp records in tje middle of the country, and southern plains.  Also I am impressed by the fact that there is a 976mB suyrface low over the Canadian maritimes contrasting the 1030mB High in the middle of the US.....   From the set up, this model run shows some potential early season blizzards for eastern Canada.

Also by the 15th, another, yes another smaller Nor'easter off the the New England coast brings some wrap around snow for a lot of New England,

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 02 October 2026

NHC accurately showing a continued dead ATL season today.  Only thing on their docket are the ashes of Faye east of Bermuda.  And they only give regeneration chance at 10%.  Rachel is raging along in the EPAC, but is moving west, and won't likely impact anyone.

Sat review-  No different than yesterday.  Front moving rapidly southward, and good bit of the gulf coast is going to see their first taste of 60's in several months.  Zonal ULL winds look crazy fast for this time of the year too.  Neither are conducive to tropical activity.

GFS-

1. At intitalization GFS shows a 1006mB slight low in the north central gulf.  I just don't see it on any sat reads.

2. By the 3rd this phantom wave or depression makes landfall along the SE Louisiana coast.  I don't even see a spin in any of the light convection there.

3. Same time frame Rachel is continuing westward, no impact, as a strong Cat 2.

4. Approx. the 9th-  Jet patterns appear to be transitioning from Polar to Pacific Zonal.  That should cause a return to Indian Summer for most of the country.

5. 10th- 12th- That pesky Campeche system persists, except the model believes it stays too close to land, and as a wave/ULL should give a period of rainy weather for the entire Texas Gulf Coast.

6. 13th- Very deep 986mB low located in the Great Lakes area.  Pacific system, so snow should be minimal. but history of these indicate very windy storms, and some severe weather outbreaks...  and this time in the uppper mid west....   if models are accurate.

7. By the 14th this low is 979mB, or analagous bp like a Cat 1.  Over Canada, and still reeking potential havoc.

8. By the 16h another identical type low forms and deepens again a little further west, over northern Minnesota. 

9.  And most of important of all......   GFS in the ATL basin stays remarkably quiet.    Which I don't believe 15 days out.  I still think one of these frontal low tails gets a little spin in the Gulf, and impacts somewhere in the eastern Gulf.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 3 October 2026

NHC?- Crickets, and the nice old "Tropical Cyclone Activity Not Expected for the Next 7 days"-  This can't be October 3rd can it?

Sat- NHC doesn't seemed that interested, but there is a strong blob of convection in the Eastern Gulf centered about 150 miles WSW of Tampa.  I wouldn't rule out this disturbance, because it is in an area that usually generates storms this time of the year.  I am guessing the more likely fate of this mid leveled low, is that it gets drawn into a strong front which is Gulf bound.  I took a screen shot of the ITCZ this morning too.  Never seen that clear during early October.  There is also a "so-so" wave approaching the Antilles, but its Latitude is low enough, I don't think it gets any tropical traction

GFS-

1. Intitilaization through tomorrow-  Model has the wave, and accompanying precip reaching the Mobile, AL area

2. 4th- 8th- GFS suggests that the frontal remnant might want to spin up a tropical system, but shows most of the precip on or too close to FL.

3. 10th- Another Tropical Wave approaches the TX/LA border.

4. 11th-13th- Repeat, but it suggests an actual depression.  Heads to the same TX/LA border, but curves NE at approach.

5. By the 16th, the zonal flow, returns to polar, and a 1036mB  High impacts northern half of the country.

6.  Remaining period - quiet.  And if this is the case, we will have made it to October 19th, w/o one ATL Basin hurricane,

[Hoodat]

Sorta weather related.  Or meteorologist related.

https://twitter.com/ScopeReport_/status/2106110726230200346

[Wingnut]

Am I a bad person for LOLing? 

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 4 October 2026

NHC- As you have been reading on this discussion, the models have kind of hinted as some Bay of Campeche.  Now there is a bubblem, with the NHC giving a 30% chance of development as it drifts northward.  No Invest # has been assigned yet.


Sat- Wave near the Antilles, and an another one NE of Hispaniola actually look more impressive with the Campeche disturbance.  Front/Trough now reaching Gulf. 

GFS-

1. GFS does not even read any Campeche development at initialiazBation. 

2. Cameche Depression does show up on Model Run the 9th,  does make it's NNE track, and has landfall near NOLA as a low end Cat 1 (980mB) or strong TS.

3. Storm for the next few days turns NE and the East toward Appalacia and the Carolinas, before returning to sea.  Flooding will be in the news on this path.

4. 17th- Non-tropical storm forms rapidly north of Maine.  Another Nor'easter type.

5. And most odd of all, the GFS basically shuts the door on Tropics after the 10th, at least in the west side of the basin.  Is it the end of the season?  I would bet not,. 

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 5 October 2026

NHC-  No AL assigned, but NHC has become more bullish on the Low in the Western Bay of Campeche. They give it 70% of development.  More on model review.

Sat review- Impressive cloud and convection deck the Campeche disturbance.  Do not see any spins or other that would indicate formation....at least now.  Caribbean shear is incredibly brisk

GFS-

1. Initialization- General low pressure in the Western Gulf (see NHC)

2. Bay of Campeche Depression forms the 7th.

3. If model is correct, this storm moves NE, and becomes the first ATL basin hurricane by the 9th.  Described as 975 mB low end Cat 1.  Location is about 400 miles south of NOLA

4. Storm takes a NNE turn, and GFS estimates the storm (still low end Cat 1).  By the 10th, it GFS says it is  nearing the Mississippi/Louisisana border.

5. 10th-12th- Innundation of ississipi and then Ohio valley

6. Balance of period- Quiet, with Pacific Fronts in succession.

I do think if we get a 3rd straight day of consistent GFS NOLA threat, then I think we give it some credibility.

[Wingnut]

The local peddlers of weather fear porn are champing at the bit wanting this blob forming in the southern gulf to become a 'cane!...

[DefiantMassRINO]

Damned El Nino is sheering the top off any prospective tropical cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic basin.

Global Climate Change is bad for insurance adjusters in Florida this year.

[libertybele]

Damned El Nino is sheering the top off any prospective tropical cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic basin.

Global Climate Change is bad for insurance adjusters in Florida this year.

We need a couple of years where insurance companies and policyholders can take a breather.

More insurance companies have moved into FL and policyholders are seeing some relief, but policies getting cancelled and premiums doubling and tripling are forcing people to sell and move out of state. Not a good scenario.

[libertybele]

The local peddlers of weather fear porn are champing at the bit wanting this blob forming in the southern gulf to become a 'cane!...

Indeed.  There are giving that 'blob' an 80% chance of formation to hit the northern Gulf Coast.....along with "too early to tell".

[Hoodat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/2106839271529418842