2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Dang!  A squall line just hit me!  Buckets of rain, temperature dropped from 90+ to 60....

Some who lived in parched lands welcome a hurricane from time to time bringing rain.

The Gulf hurricane that came last month gave my farm 2 1/2" of needed rain so my cows could have some new sprouts of grass.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 29 September 2026

NHC still issuing advisories on the two small fish storms.  No impact..  Rachel off. the coast of West Mexico appears to be paralleling the coast, so less wind expected, and monsoon for folks in those parts.

Sat review indicates the significant Caribbean flare up that I thought might be lead to something fizzled.  Radar's look more like November than September.  Still doesn't mean season is over.  It does mean unless we do see some upper level changes in the Gulf/Caribbean, we may continue to see less activity, 

GFS-

1. By the 3rd, the EPac conveyor continues with the lower Baja seeing 956mB Cat 3 storm near by.  But goes westward.
2. October 10th- Model suggests anotherNor'easter forming off the NC coast, but dies out before causing any impact.
3. Around the 12th GFS suggest something brewing in the Bay of Campeche.
4. By the 14th, this disturbance strenghthens, heads generally NNE toward the FL/AL coast as a Cat 1.
5. Generally, the 15 day run shows a continued parade of strong cold fronts reaching the Gulf.  By mid month, I am guessing enough fronts will take the bite somewhat off the Hurricane fuel. 

[jmyrlefuller]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

[Bigun]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

Haven't seen a drop in my part of Texas yet and don't expect much.

[Cyber Liberty]

Haven't seen a drop in my part of Texas yet and don't expect much.

We had major rain in my corner of Arizona, but I don't think Polo had anything to do with it.  Monsoons, which haven't dropped much rain for the past several years.  A lot of street closures in my town.

[Bigun]

We had major rain in my corner of Arizona, but I don't think Polo had anything to do with it.  Monsoons, which haven't dropped much rain for the past several years.  A lot of street closures in my town.

Same in the southern part of New Mexico as reported by relatives there.

[berdie]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

So far...no much needed rain. Just hot and really humid. Maybe tommmorow.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

How are our Texan BRiefers (of which we have a sizable contingent) handling the rain from Polo so far?

Brother-in-law in El Paso says it is clear skies, just like it is +300 days a year

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion-  1 October 2026.

I like to call October 1st, "Whew Day" for us Texans.  Yes celebrate.  In  150 years climatologically there has never been a Major Hurricane direct hit (Cat 3 or larger) the Texas coast.  That's not to say it could conceivably happen, but by October, we are in full blown frontal season, and 99%+ of disturbances and storms take a north and northeast turn....   and usually earlier, and at lower latitudes.

First from the NHC...  October 1st, no Hurricanes, no Tropical Storms, no Depressions....  Not even an Invest.  Hell, NHC is saying NO development expected the next 7 days. There are a couple of  decent looking wave located at 10N 25W, ,and 23N 63W...  Butr shear is tough in it's path....  It'll likely fizzle.  Most boring season ever.  Ohhh but I am fine with that.

Sat Review- Gulf quiet...  Caribbean quiet.  Strong front expected to reach pretty deep in the Gulf the next few days?  Nothing to see here.

GFS-

Now through the 6th- Cat 2 EPAC Rachel thankfully wants to move westward and weaken.  Strong front reaches well into the Gulf 1020 Mb High Pressure might dominate.  That'll be a nice infusion of cool air to take away energy.  Problem is, the model also shows some persistent low pressure in what appears to be the eastern gulf.

By the 8th, this comes to fruition, as GFS shows a depression forming off the coast near Jacksonville.

October 9th-  Depression stays small and takes an immediate eastward track.  At the same time, the Bay of Campeche disturbance (which also showed up a couple of days ago) stirs, and a system forms, and moves northward.

October 10th- Depression forms (998mB) about 80 miles east of Tampico, MX

October 11th- Samll quick storm reaches Lavaca as. a Depression

October 12th-13th- Remnant low off this depression rides the NW Gulf Coast, before fully dissapating over southern Louisiana

October 13h-  1030 mB High at Amarillo, Texas in October?  I have to see it to believe it,.  If this does ring true, we are talking about a lot of low temp records in tje middle of the country, and southern plains.  Also I am impressed by the fact that there is a 976mB suyrface low over the Canadian maritimes contrasting the 1030mB High in the middle of the US.....   From the set up, this model run shows some potential early season blizzards for eastern Canada.

Also by the 15th, another, yes another smaller Nor'easter off the the New England coast brings some wrap around snow for a lot of New England,

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 02 October 2026

NHC accurately showing a continued dead ATL season today.  Only thing on their docket are the ashes of Faye east of Bermuda.  And they only give regeneration chance at 10%.  Rachel is raging along in the EPAC, but is moving west, and won't likely impact anyone.

Sat review-  No different than yesterday.  Front moving rapidly southward, and good bit of the gulf coast is going to see their first taste of 60's in several months.  Zonal ULL winds look crazy fast for this time of the year too.  Neither are conducive to tropical activity.

GFS-

1. At intitalization GFS shows a 1006mB slight low in the north central gulf.  I just don't see it on any sat reads.

2. By the 3rd this phantom wave or depression makes landfall along the SE Louisiana coast.  I don't even see a spin in any of the light convection there.

3. Same time frame Rachel is continuing westward, no impact, as a strong Cat 2.

4. Approx. the 9th-  Jet patterns appear to be transitioning from Polar to Pacific Zonal.  That should cause a return to Indian Summer for most of the country.

5. 10th- 12th- That pesky Campeche system persists, except the model believes it stays too close to land, and as a wave/ULL should give a period of rainy weather for the entire Texas Gulf Coast.

6. 13th- Very deep 986mB low located in the Great Lakes area.  Pacific system, so snow should be minimal. but history of these indicate very windy storms, and some severe weather outbreaks...  and this time in the uppper mid west....   if models are accurate.

7. By the 14th this low is 979mB, or analagous bp like a Cat 1.  Over Canada, and still reeking potential havoc.

8. By the 16h another identical type low forms and deepens again a little further west, over northern Minnesota. 

9.  And most of important of all......   GFS in the ATL basin stays remarkably quiet.    Which I don't believe 15 days out.  I still think one of these frontal low tails gets a little spin in the Gulf, and impacts somewhere in the eastern Gulf.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 3 October 2026

NHC?- Crickets, and the nice old "Tropical Cyclone Activity Not Expected for the Next 7 days"-  This can't be October 3rd can it?

Sat- NHC doesn't seemed that interested, but there is a strong blob of convection in the Eastern Gulf centered about 150 miles WSW of Tampa.  I wouldn't rule out this disturbance, because it is in an area that usually generates storms this time of the year.  I am guessing the more likely fate of this mid leveled low, is that it gets drawn into a strong front which is Gulf bound.  I took a screen shot of the ITCZ this morning too.  Never seen that clear during early October.  There is also a "so-so" wave approaching the Antilles, but its Latitude is low enough, I don't think it gets any tropical traction

GFS-

1. Intitilaization through tomorrow-  Model has the wave, and accompanying precip reaching the Mobile, AL area

2. 4th- 8th- GFS suggests that the frontal remnant might want to spin up a tropical system, but shows most of the precip on or too close to FL.

3. 10th- Another Tropical Wave approaches the TX/LA border.

4. 11th-13th- Repeat, but it suggests an actual depression.  Heads to the same TX/LA border, but curves NE at approach.

5. By the 16th, the zonal flow, returns to polar, and a 1036mB  High impacts northern half of the country.

6.  Remaining period - quiet.  And if this is the case, we will have made it to October 19th, w/o one ATL Basin hurricane,

[Hoodat]

Sorta weather related.  Or meteorologist related.

https://twitter.com/ScopeReport_/status/2106110726230200346

[Wingnut]

Am I a bad person for LOLing? 

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 4 October 2026

NHC- As you have been reading on this discussion, the models have kind of hinted as some Bay of Campeche.  Now there is a bubblem, with the NHC giving a 30% chance of development as it drifts northward.  No Invest # has been assigned yet.


Sat- Wave near the Antilles, and an another one NE of Hispaniola actually look more impressive with the Campeche disturbance.  Front/Trough now reaching Gulf. 

GFS-

1. GFS does not even read any Campeche development at initialiazBation. 

2. Cameche Depression does show up on Model Run the 9th,  does make it's NNE track, and has landfall near NOLA as a low end Cat 1 (980mB) or strong TS.

3. Storm for the next few days turns NE and the East toward Appalacia and the Carolinas, before returning to sea.  Flooding will be in the news on this path.

4. 17th- Non-tropical storm forms rapidly north of Maine.  Another Nor'easter type.

5. And most odd of all, the GFS basically shuts the door on Tropics after the 10th, at least in the west side of the basin.  Is it the end of the season?  I would bet not,. 

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 5 October 2026

NHC-  No AL assigned, but NHC has become more bullish on the Low in the Western Bay of Campeche. They give it 70% of development.  More on model review.

Sat review- Impressive cloud and convection deck the Campeche disturbance.  Do not see any spins or other that would indicate formation....at least now.  Caribbean shear is incredibly brisk

GFS-

1. Initialization- General low pressure in the Western Gulf (see NHC)

2. Bay of Campeche Depression forms the 7th.

3. If model is correct, this storm moves NE, and becomes the first ATL basin hurricane by the 9th.  Described as 975 mB low end Cat 1.  Location is about 400 miles south of NOLA

4. Storm takes a NNE turn, and GFS estimates the storm (still low end Cat 1).  By the 10th, it GFS says it is  nearing the Mississippi/Louisisana border.

5. 10th-12th- Innundation of ississipi and then Ohio valley

6. Balance of period- Quiet, with Pacific Fronts in succession.

I do think if we get a 3rd straight day of consistent GFS NOLA threat, then I think we give it some credibility.

[Wingnut]

The local peddlers of weather fear porn are champing at the bit wanting this blob forming in the southern gulf to become a 'cane!...

[DefiantMassRINO]

Damned El Nino is sheering the top off any prospective tropical cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic basin.

Global Climate Change is bad for insurance adjusters in Florida this year.

[libertybele]

Damned El Nino is sheering the top off any prospective tropical cyclone in the northwestern Atlantic basin.

Global Climate Change is bad for insurance adjusters in Florida this year.

We need a couple of years where insurance companies and policyholders can take a breather.

More insurance companies have moved into FL and policyholders are seeing some relief, but policies getting cancelled and premiums doubling and tripling are forcing people to sell and move out of state. Not a good scenario.

[libertybele]

The local peddlers of weather fear porn are champing at the bit wanting this blob forming in the southern gulf to become a 'cane!...

Indeed.  There are giving that 'blob' an 80% chance of formation to hit the northern Gulf Coast.....along with "too early to tell".

[Hoodat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/2106839271529418842

[catfish1957]

Indeed.  There are giving that 'blob' an 80% chance of formation to hit the northern Gulf Coast.....along with "too early to tell".

The west Gulf blob now has an ID......Invest AL92.  Beginning to think there is some validity to formation to this storm.  GFS now for 4 days has not only picked up on its presence, but tracks and intensity too.  GFS still has a NOLA target.  That will obviously change, but I am thinking everyone from. about the TX/LA border eastward to FL should keep an eye on it.

Taking a Quick Look at the Spaghetti models shows that the 7 subset Global ensemble has landfall fro. Morgan City, LA to the AL/FL border

The GFS is a little more spread from Port Arthur, Texas to Mobile AL as a 999mB Depression or weak TS.  Both are expected this weekend,

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 6 October 2026

We finally have something to talk about in the tropics....   And the big question is present what happens to present blob AL92, which is  clouding up the western Gulf/Campeche area.  Will it become Isaias?  I think that is a pretty fair bet.  The bigger question is whether it can gain enough early strength in the initial creep eastward in the Bay of Campeche. 

Want a good idea where it won't hit?  This is an observation I have noticed through the years.  On the sat, when you see low dew point settling like a front.  I have noticed that these a repellents on isobar basis.  I think I have seen only about 5 Cat 5 monsters that have had the ability to crash that dry air,  Those like Andrew, Gilbert, and a few others,.  A good bit of SE Texas has dewpoints in the 50's to low 60's.  I think Texas is in the clear.





The GFS has returned to it's better accuracy of late, and thge 06Z run still has "future Isias?" drifting eastward, organizing, and after about a day or two, turns northward, and accelerates and rides along the cold hight ridge. The model HAS weakened the storm, and according to it's footage it will only deepen to 994mB.  That tells me that this thing will be a borderline  TS/Depression status.   So if you believe the GFS, there still might not be a hurricane by mid October..  Needless to say the most important factor on this storm's direction will be how farther east and south the front goes into the Western and Northern Gulf.

Running the Spaghetti models, no change at all since last night with west outliers to the Morgan City area, and eastern outliers at the western Florida panhandle.  Center cluster seems focused on NOLA

Looking at the short term sat, AL92 is really two blobs...  Big blob is sitting 23N, while baby blob at 19N.  Big (23N) seems to be expanding convection, while 19N seems static.  How this pans out, is really the toughest part of hurricane forecasting,.   Where a storm initializes may be 50-150 miles apart.  This obviously can highly skew path.  On the short term, you'd think 19 would be absorbed or dissapates.  OTOH, don't forget that north blob is only 100 miles from a front digging deep into south Texas.  So this story line is not complete, and I will chime in, if anything drastically changes,

[Wingnut]

How to pronounce this new storm. 
Since it formed in the Gulf of America it will be called Eye zay uh in this country.

[catfish1957]

How to pronounce this new storm. 
Since it formed in the Gulf of America it will be called Eye zay uh in this country.

p.m. statement from the NHC

00
ABNT20 KNHC 061733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and
thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures
are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will
likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it
moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds
and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days.

The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward
the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too
early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but
interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely
monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en
route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air
Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

[catfish1957]

  Special Message from NHC    Tue, 06 Oct 2026 20:20:56 +0000 
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine (formerly AL92), located in the southwest Gulf of America, at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC).

I am seeing what appears to be a spin in the convection  about 23N 96W.  GFS had the upcoming TD 9 initializing  20N 96W.  If it does form about 100 miles north of expectation.  Question is, is how will that  impact the path, and where that northward turn happens.  Being closer to the front/trough, makes me think that the NHC will suggest a more eastward landfall. 

Cloud cover is a lot thicker than at last review 8am this morning.  All signs are pointing toward strengthening,

[catfish1957]

Urgent Update....

As Gomer Pyle would  say.....   Triple Surprise.

AL92 is now TD 9.  Of course that was no surprise.  The shocker is that the NHC is now projecting future Isias(?) as a Cat 2 Storm (100mph sustained), reaching near Mobile, Alabama early Saturday.

Spaghetti models have widened slightly from New Iberia,LA to the AL/FL Border.  With most clustered just east of NOLA....  or an eyelash west of the official NHC track.  Vis shows how this thing has organized nicely...   There are already even spiraling band emitting from the periphery of TD9.  Even as it moves away from Mexico, they still may see some squalls and gusts to near TS force.

One of the reasons I think the NHC trended towards this developing is the fact that wind shear has relaxed in the central Gulf due to stilling subsidence south of the front.  On the bright side, that same trough should wreck havoc on Isaias as it gets close to the coast.

[Wingnut]

Isias(?)
 Eye zay uh .

[catfish1957]

Isias(?)
 Eye zay uh .

Oops...  typo....  Isaias

[cato potatoe]

This storm already struck coastal NC when I lived there.  Nobody could pronounce it, so we just called it Easy Ass.

[Wingnut]

Oops...  typo....  Isaias

Yeah, Spanish name.  Americans say Eye zay uh

[libertybele]

Urgent Update....

As Gomer Pyle would  say.....   Triple Surprise.

AL92 is now TD 9.  Of course that was no surprise.  The shocker is that the NHC is now projecting future Isias(?) as a Cat 2 Storm (100mph sustained), reaching near Mobile, Alabama early Saturday.

Spaghetti models have widened slightly from New Iberia,LA to the AL/FL Border.  With most clustered just east of NOLA....  or an eyelash west of the official NHC track.  Vis shows how this thing has organized nicely...   There are already even spiraling band emitting from the periphery of TD9.  Even as it moves away from Mexico, they still may see some squalls and gusts to near TS force.

One of the reasons I think the NHC trended towards this developing is the fact that wind shear has relaxed in the central Gulf due to stilling subsidence south of the front.  On the bright side, that same trough should wreck havoc on Isaias as it gets close to the coast.

It'll be a rainmaker with some flooding.  Perhaps not even heavy winds by the time it makes landfall??

[catfish1957]

10 pm update for TD 9

Was pretty sure this advisory would upgrade Isaias.  Still TD criteria.  Sat loop shows very strong steady strengthening.  Looks like a TS...

NHC Changes?

1. Windspeed at landfall estimate has dropped from 100 to 95 mph
2. Path has shifted about 20 miles eastward, or right at Mobile,Alabama   Cone- Morgan City, La to Panama City, FL

[Hoodat]

YAYZ!  Finally, rain heading my way.

[jmyrlefuller]

The Gulf depression was officially upgraded and named to Tropical Storm Isaias overnight.

[catfish1957]

Tropical Weather Discussion- 7 October 2026

As jmyiefuller mentioned TD9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaias at the 4AM advisory.  He (she?) is forecasted to reach low end Cat 2 status before making landfall on the north coast of the Gulf of America.  Overnight, the path has shifted another 20 or so miles eastward.  This is 2 consecutive estimated landfalls that have shifted east.  Sometimes these models and prognostic tools are just as good for trending as they are for actual landfall estimations.  Mid cone now is at the FL-AL border.  The overall cone is pretty narrow for a storm that has to maneuver around a frontal High that may or may not drive the storm more continued eastward than estimated.  So for the next few advisories, my two critical data points are how strong this storm becomes, and if this eastward trend of path continues.  My personal thoughts of residents who should still keep an eye on the tropics is about Cameron, LA to Tampa, FL.  News is not good on strength....  Isaias is now expected to be a decent Cat 2 storm @ 105 mph by Friday.  Hopefully, it will butt up against some enough shear of frontal trough to weaken it before landfall.  A 105 mph hurricane is quite destructive, so let's hope the trough moves south enough to interact with Isaias.  I am guessing the NHC is having a tough time dealing with intensity,  From my POV, depending on what Ias.  sees in its northern track could deem it as drastic of a intensity variance from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 3 Hurricane.

Vis Sat, shows some impressive strengthening.  Though the last 2 loops show some convection diffusion.  All the elements are there, except an eye.  Also fascinating is watching sat loops, and how the front dry air infusion is interacting with the TD.  Want another reason why I think this storm might keep trending eastward?  The front has well cleared Mobile, and is still making some slow progress into the gulf.  That dry line of the front, is often a goo indicator, as the storm (at least small ones) tend to ride the troughs/fronts.

I'll update further in the day, if anything drastically changes. 





The GFS has Isaias as a low end Cat 2 @975mB  hitting the AL/FL border area.  This is identical with the present NHC forecast.  But, as I have mentioned in earlier Hurricanes......   Sometimes trending landfall locations, is just as important as the hard data itself.  Example?  Since Isaias has formed, the cone has shifted about 25-50 miles east after each advisory. So, if I was a betting man, and with my experience watching tropical trending?  I won't be surprised at all, if this cone shifts even further eastward....   And why I am not 100% sure that the Tampa is out of play.  Otherwise further down, the GFS has a lower end TS at the lower Baja on the 14th.  Moving NNE as weather maker the following week, feeding a Pacific Front.

[Wingnut]

The hording has begun.  The WallyWorlds are out of some water. TP is also a casualty of the horders. The real question is where’s Jim Cantore?

[catfish1957]

From the NHC 10am intermediate advisory....

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River eastward to Yankeetown, Florida.
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast from
Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Indian Pass, Florida.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf Coast
from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line, Louisiana to west
of Bay St. Louis, and from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla River,
Florida.
========================================

Noticed that confidence must be improving, since the cone at landfall is only about 100 miles wide. 

Still, one thing I kind of use myself, is modeling trends.  One thing I have noticed through the years, is if you get 3 consistent shifts in landfall (same direction), that that is enough trending that I think the estimated track will continue progressing shifts  in that direction.  My observation is that happens about 75% of the time.  With that......   I suggest those just east of track be especially vigilant.

Plus...  take a look at this fantastic water vapor sat frame.  See the cloud demarcation line from about Tampico Mexico and Cedar Key, Florida?  This is the front, and south Texas / MX - Frontal trough.  I mentioned a few posts ago, that these storms typically like to ride the isobars of least resistance, instead of smashing right into the drier air.  And again I have seen monster examples like Gilbert and Andrew that defied that philosophy.   That is another reason that the path "MIGHT" take  aim on a more eastern path, than what the NHC is saying,   Of course, the front could rapidly wash out by Saturday morning too.  And that may be why or what the NHC expects to keep this AL/FL bound

[catfish1957]

Looking at the Sat loops, it looks like this storm is getting some increased WSW - >ENE shear.  So strong that I won't be surprised if the NHC downscales Isaias rapid development.  So strong, that even though he is south of Houston, cloud tops are cropping off as far as the Atlantic off SC/FL/GA.

AND....a tongue of frontal high very dry air is being sucked into the SW quadrant of Isaias.  If the storms slows any I see that too hindering development,.

AND thirdly....   look at the flattening of the feeder bands at about 25N.  That tells me too, that storm is going to get a rough treatment with too west a track, and interaction with dry frontal air.  Or...a basis of why this thing is going to go more eastward than the NHC thinks.  Next advisory is at 4 PM.  Dont' forget most of these non-major hurricanes loving riding isobars.   

[Hoodat]

The hording has begun.  The WallyWorlds are out of some water. TP is also a casualty of the horders. The real question is where’s Jim Cantore?

Looks like you're about to take a direct hit, @Wingnut .  Better fill that washing machine up with beer and ice.  Hope you get power restored for the Bama v Georgia game Saturday.

[Wingnut]

Looks like you're about to take a direct hit, @Wingnut .  Better fill that washing machine up with beer and ice.  Hope you get power restored for the Bama v Georgia game Saturday.

LOL.  I have plans.

[libertybele]

....hmmm..... now we have a "Threat Zone" .... while all hurricanes are to be taken seriously, the drama from the weather teams are evident. Looks like Panama City is in the crosshairs @Wingnut.   They are calling a Cat1 or Cat 2 a dangerous hurricane -- perhaps rain/flood wise but Michael was a 5 in comparison  (you've been down this road a few times) ....

Anyhow ....

[Wingnut]

....hmmm..... now we have a "Threat Zone" .... while all hurricanes are to be taken seriously, the drama from the weather teams are evident. Looks like Panama City is in the crosshairs @Wingnut.   They are calling a Cat1 or Cat 2 a dangerous hurricane -- perhaps rain/flood wise but Michael was a 5 in comparison  (you've been down this road a few times) ....

Anyhow ....

It is all bullshit.  No way this thing will be a cat 2.  These people lie.  It is just for clicks.  I ain't leaving.  No one I know in the hood is leaving.  Hell no one is even putting up their hurrican shutters.

[libertybele]

It is all bullshit.  No way this thing will be a cat 2.  These people lie.  It is just for clicks.  I ain't leaving.  No one I know in the hood is leaving.  Hell no one is even putting up their hurrican shutters.

Gottcha.  First hurricane of the season .....   

[catfish1957]

7 pm Isaias update-

NHC has Isaias  moving ENE @ 8 mph.  Sustained winds are now at 65 mph.  Isaias is forecasted to bend NE, then North, all gradually.  Landfall has again shifted east about 10 miles.  That makes 4 consecutive advisories where the mid point of the cone has shifted east.  ETA to landfall- late Friday night, or very early Saturday as a Cat 2 w/ 105 mph sustained winds.  Does the eastward shift continue?  I bet is is better than 50/50 it does

Looking at radar, Isaias has shrank in covection shield, but the convection that is present, has significantly thickened, meaning he is really starting to wind up.  I am still thinking massive WNW -> ENE shear is or should be hindering development.  OTOH, the Gulf temp's are way up due, to that lack of tropical activity.  i mean that is high octane.  Additionally, there is still a lot of tongues of dry frontal air infiltrating feeding into the west side of the storm.  Does it hinder it?   

Will Isaias be a Cat 2 105 mph hurricane at landfall?  My eyeballs and experience say no.  But OTOH, never bet against 90 degree + bath water fueling this thing 

[catfish1957]

Vis sat- hot off the press...

[Sighlass]

Lol, my son's girlfriend is heading to Gulf Shores tomorrow... I told her to pack her lifejacket just in case... She was not amused.

[Hoodat]

Lol, my son's girlfriend is heading to Gulf Shores tomorrow... I told her to pack her lifejacket just in case... She was not amused.

I got friends in Orange Beach.  They ain't leaving.

[cato potatoe]

By the time it makes it to the coast it will be a half-a-cane.  Sunny weather on the back side.

[Wingnut]

Overnight Thursday morning 10/8 — Here are the brand new tropical model runs for #Isaias.

[mountaineer]

This darn storm is going to dampen our family get together on Sunday over 900 miles from where it makes landfall in the Gulf. Why couldn't it just stick to blue states?