The Briefing Room
General Category => World News => Topic started by: flowers on November 07, 2013, 04:05:29 pm
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846
Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight.
While the kingdom's quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.
Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.
Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring."
Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, "we will get nuclear weapons", the kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.
Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama's counter-proliferation adviser, has told Newsnight:
Gary Samore Gary Samore served as President Barack Obama's WMD tsar
"I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan."
The story of Saudi Arabia's project - including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges - goes back decades.
In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China.
These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago.
This summer experts at defence publishers Jane's reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran.
It has also been clear for many years that Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan's defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs.
Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.
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The Saudis are scared sh*tless of Iran and cannot count on the US or Israel's nuclear deterrent to stop the crazy mullahs from dropping a nuke on Riyadh.
That said, I'm not sure Pakistan is stupid enough to sell a nuke to anyone unless they want to become persona non grata like North Korea is. Even Russia and China do not want people just selling nukes on the open market.
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The Saudis are scared sh*tless of Iran and cannot count on the US or Israel's nuclear deterrent to stop the crazy mullahs from dropping a nuke on Riyadh.
That said, I'm not sure Pakistan is stupid enough to sell a nuke to anyone unless they want to become persona non grata like North Korea is. Even Russia and China do not want people just selling nukes on the open market.
Maybe so, maybe so; however, neither Pakistan nor Saudi Arabia is in the same league as North Korea so there would be less condemnation all around if Pak sold a few nukes to the Saudis. Also, if an Iranian nuclear device is inevitable, Russia may in fact want Saudi Arabia to have - or at least be perceived to have - a few nuclear devices of its own to act as a counterweight to Iran in the Middle East. Once Iran has built a few nukes, it will become unappeasable and unstoppable in the Middle East, upsetting the delicate political ecology the Russians want to establish. I think the Russians would not be altogether unhappy if the Pakis sold one or two nukes to Saudi Arabia.
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The only reason why the Saudis want their weapons is that they want to counter the threat from Iran.
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The only reason why the Saudis want their weapons is that they want to counter the threat from Iran.
Which, if you think about it, is a very good reason for having one or two at the ready.
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Which, if you think about it, is a very good reason for having one or two at the ready.
I think that the US Navy and the Israelis should handle any action against Iran. Saudis main duty is to keep the oil flowing. The political status in Saudi Arabia is a little unstable.
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I think that the US Navy and the Israelis should handle any action against Iran. Saudis main duty is to keep the oil flowing
Maybe so, but right now that isn't going to happen. It's blatantly obvious now that Saudi Arabia cannot count on the US to do so, and from the Saudi perspective, relying on Israel is fraught with, as they say, existential dangers. A Saudi nuclear weapon at this point in history would be more likely to have a stabilizing effect rather than a destabilizing effect.
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I think that the US Navy and the Israelis should handle any action against Iran. Saudis main duty is to keep the oil flowing. The political status in Saudi Arabia is a little unstable.
I do not trust any Islamic nation with a nuclear bomb even ones that claim that they are allies
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Maybe so, but right now that isn't going to happen. It's blatantly obvious now that Saudi Arabia cannot count on the US to do so, and from the Saudi perspective, relying on Israel is fraught with, as they say, existential dangers. A Saudi nuclear weapon at this point in history would be more likely to have a stabilizing effect rather than a destabilizing effect.
If the Saudis get one, every nation will want one. it will be one gigantic arms race of who will want a bomb. Then you have a hell of a mess. Then you risk giving an atomic bomb to groups like Hezbollah and Al Queda who then will intern use it again Western targets.
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If the Saudis get one, every nation will want one. it will be one gigantic arms race of who will want a bomb. Then you have a hell of a mess. Then you risk giving an atomic bomb to groups like Hezbollah and Al Queda who then will intern use it again Western targets.
Everyone already wants one. And the risk of Hezbollah or Al Qaida getting one is already fully here - they'd buy, and North Korea would sell, if only they could get the cash and NK an actual functioning gadget. The Saudis would not be the ones to give a nuke to Hezbollah or Al Qaida; Iran might.
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I think that the US Navy and the Israelis should handle any action against Iran. Saudis main duty is to keep the oil flowing. The political status in Saudi Arabia is a little unstable.
I have said this a few times. The very first nuke Iran builds will not be aimed at Israel. The Council of Ayatollahs that runs Iran wants one thing desperately - The holy sites of Medina and Mecca. It is a total obsession on their part. They consider Wahhabis to be scum, and not worthy of keeping the holy land.
I would also gently comment on the bolded portion. Duty to whom? I would expect that keeping their own country and people intact and unexploded is a considerably higher priority to them than selling oil.
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If the Saudis get one, every nation will want one. it will be one gigantic arms race of who will want a bomb. Then you have a hell of a mess. Then you risk giving an atomic bomb to groups like Hezbollah and Al Queda who then will intern use it again Western targets.
Exactly. Thanks Obama!
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Everyone already wants one. And the risk of Hezbollah or Al Qaida getting one is already fully here - they'd buy, and North Korea would sell, if only they could get the cash and NK an actual functioning gadget. The Saudis would not be the ones to give a nuke to Hezbollah or Al Qaida; Iran might.
I agree to that. The NK has been experiencing a nuclear fizzle. In nuclear weapons, a fizzle occurs when the testing of a nuclear bomb grossly fails to meet its expected yield.