The Briefing Room
General Category => Health/Education => Topic started by: mystery-ak on March 29, 2020, 10:21:06 pm
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Trump shifts, says distancing to go to April 30
By Brett Samuels - 03/29/20 06:13 PM EDT
President Trump on Sunday announced that the White House will keep its current guidelines for social distancing in place through the end of April to try and blunt the spread of the coronavirus.
DEVELOPING
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The President "shifts" based on a consensus among health care agencies and modeling that peak infection will be around mid-April.
We're still on the uptick ... and haven't begun to level the curve.
Just in case anyone's interested in what's behind the stupid headline.
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The President "shifts" based on a consensus among health care agencies and modeling that peak infection will be around mid-April.
We're still on the uptick ... and haven't begun to level the curve.
Just in case anyone's interested in what's behind the stupid headline.
Welp, he is going to get flack to matter what he did, if he opened early he'd be "endangering the country", yada yada yada.
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Welp, he is going to get flack to matter what he did, if he opened early he'd be "endangering the country", yada yada yada.
QFT. :thumbsup:
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How long are we going to pretend the benefits of shutdown are worth the cost? At this rate we're going to end up with 20% unemployment and half of the country infected.
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How long are we going to pretend the benefits of shutdown are worth the cost? At this rate we're going to end up with 20% unemployment and half of the country infected.
I disagree and so does Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. Imagine if every state was mirroring NY as far as number of cases and fatalities? The purpose is to try to stay ahead of a complete collapse of our health care system. We only have so many hospitals, beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. Yes, more hospitals are being built, more beds are being utilized and more ventilators are being manufactured, but keep in mind that they are begging doctors to come out of retirement to help as well as military doctors.
Containment is absolutely necessary.
This virus isn't just infecting the elderly; a nine month old infant has died. Around here corona cases are infecting ages 10-90.
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The Stock Market will see a drop of >1,000 points tomorrow. You heard it here first.
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Idiocracy.
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Chit on a stick.
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The Stock Market will see a drop of >1,000 points tomorrow. You heard it here first.
Well, unless there some good news on the horizon, like announcing another experimental drug that is working, or NY is starting to see cases leveling off ... you're absolutely correct.
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Well, unless there some good news on the horizon, like announcing another experimental drug that is working, or NY is starting to see cases leveling off ... you're absolutely correct.
None of that matters. Commerce will remain in stasis, and there will be millions more thrown out of work.
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I disagree and so does Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. Imagine if every state was mirroring NY as far as number of cases and fatalities? The purpose is to try to stay ahead of a complete collapse of our health care system. We only have so many hospitals, beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. Yes, more hospitals are being built, more beds are being utilized and more ventilators are being manufactured, but keep in mind that they are begging doctors to come out of retirement to help as well as military doctors.
Containment is absolutely necessary.
This virus isn't just infecting the elderly; a nine month old infant has died. Around here corona cases are infecting ages 10-90.
Pandemics are the achilles heel to a globalized, high-tech, just-in-time economy. We can't hunker down so easily as we could in the old agrarian/early industrial days when people were more self-sufficient, stocked up, saved up, and able to shelter-in-place and survive on what they had.
Worst of all is there is no lesser of two evils between being being sick or incapacited in the short term, or trying to survive in the long one.
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I disagree and so does Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx. Imagine if every state was mirroring NY as far as number of cases and fatalities? The purpose is to try to stay ahead of a complete collapse of our health care system. We only have so many hospitals, beds, ventilators, and medical personnel. Yes, more hospitals are being built, more beds are being utilized and more ventilators are being manufactured, but keep in mind that they are begging doctors to come out of retirement to help as well as military doctors.
Containment is absolutely necessary.
This virus isn't just infecting the elderly; a nine month old infant has died. Around here corona cases are infecting ages 10-90.
Is it effective, though? Nearly three weeks in, has the situation improved?
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Is it effective, though? Nearly three weeks in, has the situation improved?
What we do know is that they are predicting at least 100,000 - 200,000 fatalities, with around 2,000,000 people infected. The question is, what would those numbers look like had we not started social distancing?
Logically, the less exposure people have to the virus, the less likely they are to become infected.
Numbers have certainly increased as testing has become more available.
One concern is that so far, I haven't seen any numbers of the amount of people who have recovered.
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Is it effective, though? Nearly three weeks in, has the situation improved?
How would we measure if this path is more effective or less effective than doing nothing @jmyrlefuller ?
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The fact is, the numbers are crap . CRAP!!!
And the predictions by Dr. Fauci are also crap. I trust nothing he says.
The fact is, we most likely have had many millions infected and are well now not being identified. My wife and I believe we both had this virus in early January. We went to an Emergency Clinic facility down the road from us, were tested for the flu with negative results. It was early on and we were not tested for COVID-19. We did have the symptoms of the disease. And talk about being weak, we were both extremely weak. I am 66, she is 47, and we were both knocked hard. But she had a small drugstore at home, and we started on antibiotics, Tamiflu, and mega doses of Vitamin C, and we weathered through it. If we had antibody tests, we would get tested to confirm we had it. What happened to us has happened to many millions of Americans, and they are not being counted.
This novelty of this virus is slowly coming to an end, with protocols forming to fight it. The FDA is slow and cannot be trusted any more than Dr. Fauci. Plus I believe many of these medical folks are anti Trumpers, and don't think that does not play into what they are doing. If they can keep this outbreak going long enough, they can destroy Trump, and don't think for a minute that is not present in everything they do. Count on it.
For three years I have heard my wife come home complaining about the anti Trump mindset of everyone at the CDC. No mystery here what is going on. None.
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Yay, house arrest for another 5 weeks!
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The fact is, the numbers are crap . CRAP!!!
And the predictions by Dr. Fauci are also crap. I trust nothing he says.
The fact is, we most likely have had many millions infected and are well now not being identified. My wife and I believe we both had this virus in early January. We went to an Emergency Clinic facility down the road from us, were tested for the flu with negative results. It was early on and we were not tested for COVID-19. We did have the symptoms of the disease. And talk about being weak, we were both extremely weak. I am 66, she is 47, and we were both knocked hard. But she had a small drugstore at home, and we started on antibiotics, Tamiflu, and mega doses of Vitamin C, and we weathered through it. If we had antibody tests, we would get tested to confirm we had it. What happened to us has happened to many millions of Americans, and they are not being counted.
This novelty of this virus is slowly coming to an end, with protocols forming to fight it. The FDA is slow and cannot be trusted any more than Dr. Fauci. Plus I believe many of these medical folks are anti Trumpers, and don't think that does not play into what they are doing. If they can keep this outbreak going long enough, they can destroy Trump, and don't think for a minute that is not present in everything they do. Count on it.
For three years I have heard my wife come home complaining about the anti Trump mindset of everyone at the CDC. No mystery here what is going on. None.
:yowsa: Rod Rosenstein's sister is head of infectious diseases at the CDC...need I say more?
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One more thing I will share, and some of you will shake your heads, but I discovered this years ago. Whenever I start getting sick, and I suspect it is viral in nature, I take one drink of Chartreuse green. Chartreuse is a French liquor made from 140 herbs, and I do not know what is in it precisely, but I have thought for decades it has medicinal qualities. 4 out of 5 times, I am getting sick, I drink one drink before bed, and awaken the next day without symptoms. True story.
So, when both my wife and I got sick, both of us were taking the Chartreuse before bed. And she does not really drink alcohol, but she has seen what it has done for me, and she takes it too when she gets sick.
And the green versus the gold version!! Green is 115 proof, whereas the gold is 80 proof.
CHARTREUSE GREEN....has long been my favorite liquor.
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Fauci says April 30 extension is 'a wise and prudent decision'
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/490096-fauci-says-that-april-30-extension-is-a-wise-and-prudent-decision
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How long are we going to pretend the benefits of shutdown are worth the cost? At this rate we're going to end up with 20% unemployment and half of the country infected.
Monday — we can’t have the cure be worse than the disease.
Wednesday — I’d like to open the country up by Easter.
Sunday — Let’s have a Great Depression!
What do you even say to that? It’d be funny as hell if the joke weren’t on us.
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I disagree and so does Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx.
Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are only modeling the effects of this disease. They are not modeling the effects of ruining the economy. How much more homelessness, drug dependency, depression and suicide will there be if we go into a prolonged recession? How much would that affect not only the medical establishment, but the entire social fabric of the country?
Trump's original instincts were right on this. Hunkering down has done very little to contain the virus. The best defense against COVID-19 is for everyone to get it and become immune. That is a process we are intentionally prolonging in order to prevent short-term hospital overcrowding, mostly because no politician at any level can survive the optics of people dying for want of a ventilator.
Practically everyone is going to get this virus one way or another. If that is the case (which it is), then better sooner than later for the vast majority of us.
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What we do know is that they are predicting at least 100,000 - 200,000 fatalities, with around 2,000,000 people infected. The question is, what would those numbers look like had we not started social distancing?
Logically, the less exposure people have to the virus, the less likely they are to become infected.
Numbers have certainly increased as testing has become more available.
One concern is that so far, I haven't seen any numbers of the amount of people who have recovered.
Right now the numbers in the US are:
142,106 cases
2,479 deaths
2,686 recovered
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Right now the numbers in the US are:
142,106 cases
2,479 deaths
2,686 recovered
Thank you for the info. So far, only about 1% have recovered and we have a fatality rate nearing 2%. **nononono*
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Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are only modeling the effects of this disease. They are not modeling the effects of ruining the economy. How much more homelessness, drug dependency, depression and suicide will there be if we go into a prolonged recession? How much would that affect not only the medical establishment, but the entire social fabric of the country?
Trump's original instincts were right on this. Hunkering down has done very little to contain the virus. The best defense against COVID-19 is for everyone to get it and become immune. That is a process we are intentionally prolonging in order to prevent short-term hospital overcrowding, mostly because no politician at any level can survive the optics of people dying for want of a ventilator.
Practically everyone is going to get this virus one way or another. If that is the case (which it is), then better sooner than later for the vast majority of us.
Gee ... I don't know, I'm over 60 with several underlying medical conditions ... I'd like to hang on as long as I can. I'm not done yet being a wife, a mother, a grand mother and a great grandmother, thank you very much.
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Thank you for the info. So far, only about 1% have recovered and we have a fatality rate nearing 2%. **nononono*
Another ridiculously inflated statistic based on 'identified' cases.
Everyone knows the tested cases are not all the cases, by an order of magnitude. By far, more cases go unidentified... And thus the 2% fatality rate is utterly overinflated.
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How long are we going to pretend the benefits of shutdown are worth the cost? At this rate we're going to end up with 20% unemployment and half of the country infected.
There are costs on both sides of the equation and it comes down to which cost can you afford to pay?
As was stated earlier, no matter what Trump does, he is going to get slammed..
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Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are only modeling the effects of this disease. They are not modeling the effects of ruining the economy. How much more homelessness, drug dependency, depression and suicide will there be if we go into a prolonged recession? How much would that affect not only the medical establishment, but the entire social fabric of the country?
Trump's original instincts were right on this. Hunkering down has done very little to contain the virus. The best defense against COVID-19 is for everyone to get it and become immune. That is a process we are intentionally prolonging in order to prevent short-term hospital overcrowding, mostly because no politician at any level can survive the optics of people dying for want of a ventilator.
Practically everyone is going to get this virus one way or another. If that is the case (which it is), then better sooner than later for the vast majority of us.
Sooner means no known treatment, not enough ventilators and far more risk to the hospital personnel caring for me.
No thank you.
I’ll self isolate and pray that enough Americans are smart enough and caring enough to do the same.
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Sooner means no known treatment, not enough ventilators and far more risk to the hospital personnel caring for me.
No thank you.
I’ll self isolate and pray that enough Americans are smart enough and caring enough to do the same.
:amen: Prayers up for all my fellow Briefers and their loved ones!
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:amen: Prayers up for all my fellow Briefers and their loved ones!
Amen!
Because if getting the virus sooner rather than later endangers your family and friends, and possibly costs you your life, it's a really bad decision to make. It may sound like you're a tough guy on the internet, but it's dangerous in real life, and I hope no one on this board makes that kind of foolish decision.
Stay safe, libertybele.
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Many millions, perhaps tens of millions in the USA have had this virus.
What is unfortunate is that the CDC has not developed a test for antibodies to determine if any of us have had it. The test would be expensive, which is part of the problem. However, this test is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in helping politicians make policy decisions. For example, if ten million have had this virus that have not been identified, which I believe to be the case, then this virus is less deadly than the basic flu. And if that is the case, this total shutdown is foolish, and Trump is being misled.
And don't think this lack of a test to determine those infected to date with antibodies is not intentional. Again, I know for fact many of these docs at CDC, and I assume NIH and FDA are very anti Trump. Making Trump look bad would be easy to do by not performing this test. And when I hear TRILLIONS being kicked around and this test NOT being performed, then Trump is being played to lose in November. That is exactly how underhanded these MFers are!!!!
Fact is there are hot spots. But for those areas of the country not dealing with that level of infection, I do not believe they should be shut down. If we continue this shut down until the end of April, which is what it appears to be the case, we will have 10-20 million jobs lost that will NOT return. This destruction of our economy will have lasting impact similar to Japan in the 90s. We will NOT recover from this economically. 80% of small restaurants will be gone, along with many of the retail establishments that were out there. New construction will come to a screaming end for perhaps one or two years. The damage would be severe, and reminiscent of the Great Depression. And if this nonsense continues into May, China accomplishes perhaps what they planned in the first place, to displace the USA in the world market as the leading economy.
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First thing Trump needs to do when this is over, is to disband the CDC. They clearly failed in their mission.
They were more concerned with Climate Change than with stopping pandemics.
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Many millions, perhaps tens of millions in the USA have had this virus.
What is unfortunate is that the CDC has not developed a test for antibodies to determine if any of us have had it. The test would be expensive, which is part of the problem. However, this test is EXTREMELY IMPORTANT in helping politicians make policy decisions. For example, if ten million have had this virus that have not been identified, which I believe to be the case, then this virus is less deadly than the basic flu. And if that is the case, this total shutdown is foolish, and Trump is being misled.
Too busy with crap like this.....
https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/default.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/default.htm)
CDC’s Climate and Health Program is excited to celebrate 10 years of supporting state, tribal, local, and territorial public health agencies as they prepare for specific health impacts of a changing climate. CDC is proud of the collaborative work states, cities, territories, and tribes are doing to develop and implement adaptation plans to protect at-risk populations and locations.
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The fact is, the numbers are crap . CRAP!!!
And the predictions by Dr. Fauci are also crap. I trust nothing he says.
The fact is, we most likely have had many millions infected and are well now not being identified. My wife and I believe we both had this virus in early January. We went to an Emergency Clinic facility down the road from us, were tested for the flu with negative results. It was early on and we were not tested for COVID-19. We did have the symptoms of the disease. And talk about being weak, we were both extremely weak. I am 66, she is 47, and we were both knocked hard. But she had a small drugstore at home, and we started on antibiotics, Tamiflu, and mega doses of Vitamin C, and we weathered through it. If we had antibody tests, we would get tested to confirm we had it. What happened to us has happened to many millions of Americans, and they are not being counted.
This novelty of this virus is slowly coming to an end, with protocols forming to fight it. The FDA is slow and cannot be trusted any more than Dr. Fauci. Plus I believe many of these medical folks are anti Trumpers, and don't think that does not play into what they are doing. If they can keep this outbreak going long enough, they can destroy Trump, and don't think for a minute that is not present in everything they do. Count on it.
For three years I have heard my wife come home complaining about the anti Trump mindset of everyone at the CDC. No mystery here what is going on. None.
yea the whole world are anti trumpers and it's a conspiracy ....idiot.
Trump is doing a good job, but unless you think he is an idiot himself, their is a reason why he is doing this.
It's bloody serious.
I swear the mentality of some people on here is terrible. Would probably have the mentality of not fighting Hitler if it meant a stock market crash.
Just let the virus run its course? Ok millions dead.
Who will be buying goods and services when their are piles of dead people in the corner? No-one. The quicker people self isolate the quicker this all ends and the quicker the economy will pick up.
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yea the whole world are anti trumpers and it's a conspiracy ....idiot.
Trump is doing a good job, but unless you think he is an idiot himself, their is a reason why he is doing this.
It's bloody serious.
I swear the mentality of some people on here is terrible. Would probably have the mentality of not fighting Hitler if it meant a stock market crash.
Just let the virus run its course? Ok millions dead.
Who will be buying goods and services when their are piles of dead people in the corner? No-one. The quicker people self isolate the quicker this all ends and the quicker the economy will pick up.
You seem like a pleasant person.
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Monday — we can’t have the cure be worse than the disease.
Wednesday — I’d like to open the country up by Easter.
Sunday — Let’s have a Great Depression!
What do you even say to that? It’d be funny as hell if the joke weren’t on us.
I supported my President, and still your President too, Donald J Trump 100% when he set the course of the nation. You know I'm gonna support him 200% when he turns tail and back tracks. #KAG
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yea the whole world are anti trumpers and it's a conspiracy ....idiot.
Trump is doing a good job, but unless you think he is an idiot himself, their is a reason why he is doing this.
It's bloody serious.
I swear the mentality of some people on here is terrible. Would probably have the mentality of not fighting Hitler if it meant a stock market crash.
Just let the virus run its course? Ok millions dead.
Who will be buying goods and services when their are piles of dead people in the corner? No-one. The quicker people self isolate the quicker this all ends and the quicker the economy will pick up.
@Stevensr123
This would be a great post if you dropped the idiot remark.
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@Stevensr123
This would be a great post if you dropped the idiot remark.
apologies. My dad's friend from the British army died of it the other day. So makes me angry that people still aren't taking it seriously or think it's anything to do with trump. It's a GLOBAL health crisis.
One thing I will say though, China MUST pay when this is all over.
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apologies. My dad's friend from the British army died of it the other day. So makes me angry that people still aren't taking it seriously or think it's anything to do with trump. It's a GLOBAL health crisis.
One thing I will say though, China MUST pay when this is all over.
My condolences to you and your Dad for the loss of his friend.
And yes, China must be made to pay a price for this. A lot of that will be the natural consequences of proving themselves an unreliable trading partner.
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apologies. My dad's friend from the British army died of it the other day. So makes me angry that people still aren't taking it seriously or think it's anything to do with trump. It's a GLOBAL health crisis.
One thing I will say though, China MUST pay when this is all over.
Your anger is understandable.
This is hitting very close to home for a lot of people.
In Ohio, an ER nurse just died trying to save the lives of others.
I'm sorry for your loss......
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This was a very good move by Mr. Trump.
Mid-April wasn't going to be "long enough" to "reach a peak", then see "a plateau", and then see the infection rate begin a downward slide.
I would reckon the "R0" would have to drop a little below 1.0, perhaps even lower, before people ought to be "mixing" (at work and socially) as they did prior to the pandemic. But then, I'm no expert -- that's just a guess.
Two extra weeks won't seem like that much longer.
Even then, by the third week of April, a "second re-assessment" may be necessary.
The virus still has a lot of territory over which it can spread, even after the hot spots (NYC) seem to start "burning out".
Hopefully within two weeks they'll be enough reports as to whether the various drugs being used against the disease are working, and what combinations seem to yield the most reliable results.
Mr. Trump's press briefings are helping, too.
He is most certainly the Man of the Hour, forcing federal agencies to bend to his will, and presenting himself (and others on the team) before the public.
If anything is going to seal his re-election, this is it.
Regardless of how the economy struggles for the time being.
Perhaps something more formal than a press briefing is needed, such as a national address...
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Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx are only modeling the effects of this disease. They are not modeling the effects of ruining the economy. How much more homelessness, drug dependency, depression and suicide will there be if we go into a prolonged recession? How much would that affect not only the medical establishment, but the entire social fabric of the country?
Trump's original instincts were right on this. Hunkering down has done very little to contain the virus. The best defense against COVID-19 is for everyone to get it and become immune. That is a process we are intentionally prolonging in order to prevent short-term hospital overcrowding, mostly because no politician at any level can survive the optics of people dying for want of a ventilator.
Practically everyone is going to get this virus one way or another. If that is the case (which it is), then better sooner than later for the vast majority of us.
@massadvj
My President says the last 15 day lock down may have changed a 2.2 million death toll into 100-200k. I don't think he pulled that out of his butt. I think the best scientists, doctors, and statisticians in the world advised him...but I agree the economists probably got short shrift after the President decided his number one goal was to save as many lives as possible.
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(https://www.quickanddirtytips.com/sites/default/files/styles/insert_large/public/images/12481/passive-aggressive-comment-compressor.png?itok=u4GXh6kz)
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@massadvj
My President says the last 15 day lock down may have changed a 2.2 million death toll into 100-200k. I don't think he pulled that out of his butt.
At least not like this one...
MikeBates @MikeBates
Trump today: "I know South Korea better than anybody. It's a very tight - do you know how many people are in Seoul ? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people."
It's under 10 million. But Trump knows South Korea better than anybody. Believe me!
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Just let the virus run its course? Ok millions dead.
Who will be buying goods and services when their are piles of dead people in the corner? No-one. The quicker people self isolate the quicker this all ends and the quicker the economy will pick up.
A bullcrap number pulled out of somebody's butt that started the panic - 1.2 to 2m to die in the US alone - Never true. Later downgraded to several hundred thousand... And now they are hard pressed to get mortality over 100k... And that too will predictably go down further... to several 10s of thousands - Panic driven nonsense.
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A bullcrap number pulled out of somebody's butt that started the panic - 1.2 to 2m to die in the US alone - Never true. Later downgraded to several hundred thousand... And now they are hard pressed to get mortality over 100k... And that too will predictably go down further... to several 10s of thousands - Panic driven nonsense.
:amen:
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A bullcrap number pulled out of somebody's butt that started the panic - 1.2 to 2m to die in the US alone - Never true. Later downgraded to several hundred thousand... And now they are hard pressed to get mortality over 100k... And that too will predictably go down further... to several 10s of thousands - Panic driven nonsense.
For the 18,346th time. This was never about the death rate... that’s just an also ran. This is and has always been about overwhelming the healthcare system and preventing all the OTHER deaths that would result from that.
Fact: this IS at least 2.5-3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu.
Fact: (and this is the most important one given the transmissibility referenced above) unlike the seasonal flu, there is no vaccine, there is no cure.
So now, please.... all the naysayers follow me here:
If there is no cure, and there is no vaccine...AND it is much more transmissible than the seasonal flu...how does our healthcare system accommodate that? Answer: without (here’s that phrase) flattening the curve, they absolutely CANNOT do so. Folks will be dying of otherwise very treatable maladies.
Now roll in the fact that this has mutated at least once if not twice and who knows what the next one may bring. And roll in that it APPEARS to be at best 10x more fatal than the season flu...and you’ve got the very real potential for a real shitstorm.
Nothing I’ve said here is contested, I took the low figures across the board. My sister is a nurse in Chicago...they are ALREADY on the brink of being overwhelmed. They are virtually out of PPE, re-using some, and she has had one day off since this began. And every sign they’re seeing is that it’s only in the beginning stages of spooling up.
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For the 18,346th time. This was never about the death rate... that’s just an also ran. This is and has always been about overwhelming the healthcare system and preventing all the OTHER deaths that would result from that.
Fact: this IS at least 2.5-3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu.
Fact: (and this is the most important one given the transmissibility referenced above) unlike the seasonal flu, there is no vaccine, there is no cure.
So now, please.... all the naysayers follow me here:
If there is no cure, and there is no vaccine...AND it is much more transmissible than the seasonal flu...how does our healthcare system accommodate that? Answer: without (here’s that phrase) flattening the curve, they absolutely CANNOT do so. Folks will be dying of otherwise very treatable maladies.
Now roll in the fact that this has mutated at least once if not twice and who knows what the next one may bring. And roll in that it APPEARS to be at best 10x more fatal than the season flu...and you’ve got the very real potential for a real shitstorm.
Nothing I’ve said here is contested, I took the low figures across the board. My sister is a nurse in Chicago...they are ALREADY on the brink of being overwhelmed. They are virtually out of PPE, re-using some, and she has had one day off since this began. And every sign they’re seeing is that it’s only in the beginning stages of spooling up.
THANK you for this fact based, medically sound post.
Facts aren't nonsense.
The nonsense happens when ill-informed people pretend they know what they do not know.
In my family there are a number of nurses, NP's and a doctor. In addition I know many, many doctors because my husband worked in hospital administration for over 40 years.
And every single one of the people who actually works in hospitals and in medicine is in total agreement with what you've said.
Again......... thank you for clearly enumerating FACTS.
Without them, there is nothing but emotion, and emotion leads to panic, and panic is dangerous.
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For the 18,346th time. This was never about the death rate... that’s just an also ran. This is and has always been about overwhelming the healthcare system and preventing all the OTHER deaths that would result from that.
Fact: this IS at least 2.5-3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu.
Fact: (and this is the most important one given the transmissibility referenced above) unlike the seasonal flu, there is no vaccine, there is no cure.
So now, please.... all the naysayers follow me here:
If there is no cure, and there is no vaccine...AND it is much more transmissible than the seasonal flu...how does our healthcare system accommodate that? Answer: without (here’s that phrase) flattening the curve, they absolutely CANNOT do so. Folks will be dying of otherwise very treatable maladies.
Now roll in the fact that this has mutated at least once if not twice and who knows what the next one may bring. And roll in that it APPEARS to be at best 10x more fatal than the season flu...and you’ve got the very real potential for a real shitstorm.
Nothing I’ve said here is contested, I took the low figures across the board. My sister is a nurse in Chicago...they are ALREADY on the brink of being overwhelmed. They are virtually out of PPE, re-using some, and she has had one day off since this began. And every sign they’re seeing is that it’s only in the beginning stages of spooling up.
Great post @Axeslinger
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A bullcrap number pulled out of somebody's butt that started the panic - 1.2 to 2m to die in the US alone - Never true. Later downgraded to several hundred thousand... And now they are hard pressed to get mortality over 100k... And that too will predictably go down further... to several 10s of thousands - Panic driven nonsense.
People are not finished dying in China, or Italy, or Iran, or NYC but you can predict the future, with your own numbers pulled from your backside?
Whn my grandfather was young in the 1890s, he was one of seven children. Three died of diptheria in a matter of days.
He headed West to Wyoming and Montana, where he was a real cowboy. He went as far away as Texas, to bring back horses for his employer, the William F. Cody Wild West Show.
In 1917 he registerec for the WWI draft from Green Grass County Montana, and later settled down and married near Cody WY.
Outbreaks like Diptheria killing so many people, later 1918 Spanish flu, gave way to the field of Public Health.
There is quite a lot of science, beyond pulling numbers out of one's backside.
I was in elementary school when were were all innoculated for Polio. There was a kid on my grandparents' block already wearing braces.
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For the 18,346th time. This was never about the death rate... that’s just an also ran. This is and has always been about overwhelming the healthcare system and preventing all the OTHER deaths that would result from that.
YES, in fact, it IS about the death rate. Whether, and how mortal it is, because THAT is what is driving the panic. And it IS panic.
Fact: this IS at least 2.5-3 times more transmissible than the seasonal flu.
Fact: (and this is the most important one given the transmissibility referenced above) unlike the seasonal flu, there is no vaccine, there is no cure.
So now, please.... all the naysayers follow me here:
If there is no cure, and there is no vaccine...AND it is much more transmissible than the seasonal flu...how does our healthcare system accommodate that?
Transmittable/contagiousness is only a factor in the light of lethality. The common cold - also a corona virus - is also highly transmittable... No one cares though, because as a rule, the common cold is not lethal. So lethality is still THE factor. And this virus is largely not lethal. Even the elderly and compromised TEND to recover. More so by far than not.
Answer: without (here’s that phrase) flattening the curve, they absolutely CANNOT do so. Folks will be dying of otherwise very treatable maladies.
Again, not true - What you are saying is right - but what has caused the overwhelming of medical resources is PRECISELY the castle mentality caused by quarantine. Systems are overwhelmed BECAUSE folks are treating this as a health care issue and not a logistics issue. You are right - resources are overwhelmed, IN PLACES. That those places are cut off from replenishment is BECAUSE of the quarantine mentality.
Lockdown castle, circle-the-wagons thinking shut down the very pathways that assets and resources travel by.
Now roll in the fact that this has mutated at least once if not twice and who knows what the next one may bring. And roll in that it APPEARS to be at best 10x more fatal than the season flu...and you’ve got the very real potential for a real shitstorm.
Alright, but not really... Viral mutations tend more often than not (read: always) toward the more benign - The horribly viral and lethal tending to burn hot and die out, having destroyed their path forward by their very mortality. Usually, the virus that infects but does not kill tends to be the one that lasts long enough to reach contagion.
Mutation is to be encouraged and welcomed, as it will tend toward a lessening of lethal symptoms. That's what viruses do. The very thing that makes them 'new' and lethal, makes them short lived. They WILL morph, and that morphing is going to tend toward the benign.
Nothing I’ve said here is contested, I took the low figures across the board. My sister is a nurse in Chicago...they are ALREADY on the brink of being overwhelmed. They are virtually out of PPE, re-using some, and she has had one day off since this began. And every sign they’re seeing is that it’s only in the beginning stages of spooling up.
Right. Because assets are not being managed. because logistics. It's logistics.
Ship nurses in from unaffected areas when the regulars get sick. six to ten days later the original regulars are well again, and immune. That means eventually, that human assets are hardened and reliable... you just have to get over that logistical hump.
It;s ALL about logistics. Stop letting doctors tell you how to handle supply and demand problems - They don't know how.
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Whn my grandfather was young in the 1890s, he was one of seven children. Three died of diptheria in a matter of days.
He headed West to Wyoming and Montana, where he was a real cowboy. He went as far away as Texas, to bring back horses for his employer, the William F. Cody Wild West Show.
In 1917 he registerec for the WWI draft from Green Grass County Montana, and later settled down and married near Cody WY.
Outbreaks like Diptheria killing so many people, later 1918 Spanish flu, gave way to the field of Public Health.
I was in elementary school when were were all innoculated for Polio. There was a kid on my grandparents' block already wearing braces.
Great story @truth_seeker
When I was young boy I would wake in the morning and get dressed for school. Before going downstairs for breakfast I would often wash my hands. In those days we had a sink with two faucets. When I turned one faucet hot water would come out, and when I turned the other faucet on cold water would come out. I didn't like washing my hands in either cold or hot water, so I would combine the water in the base of the sink to make warm water. I would always use soap to make my hands cleaner and by moving my wet hands over the surface of the soap I would create a bunch of wet and soapy bubbles on my hands I called lather. after my hands were covered in soap lather, I would submerge my hands in the warm water in the bottom of the sink, and this would rinse the soapy lather off my hands. After that it was simple task to dry my hands by patting them with a dry towel.
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Great story @truth_seeker
When I was young boy I would wake in the morning and get dressed for school. Before going downstairs for breakfast I would often wash my hands. In those days we had a sink with two faucets. When I turned one faucet hot water would come out, and when I turned the other faucet on cold water would come out. I didn't like washing my hands in either cold or hot water, so I would combine the water in the base of the sink to make warm water. I would always use soap to make my hands cleaner and by moving my wet hands over the surface of the soap I would create a bunch of wet and soapy bubbles on my hands I called lather. after my hands were covered in soap lather, I would submerge my hands in the warm water in the bottom of the sink, and this would rinse the soapy lather off my hands. After that it was simple task to dry my hands by patting them with a dry towel.
You are really putting your amazing sense of humor out there, for all to see.
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You are really putting your amazing sense of humor out there, for all to see.
I was actually making a point with my rambling.
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YES, in fact, it IS about the death rate. Whether, and how mortal it is, because THAT is what is driving the panic. And it IS panic.
Only with regards to the general public is panic an issue. The healthcare system decisions are being based on my points I laid out before. Panic and sound healthcare solvency decisions are not mutually exclusive
Transmittable/contagiousness is only a factor in the light of lethality. The common cold - also a corona virus - is also highly transmittable... No one cares though, because as a rule, the common cold is not lethal. So lethality is still THE factor. And this virus is largely not lethal. Even the elderly and compromised TEND to recover. More so by far than not.
While what you say is true, you are still ignoring the burden on the system. From the CDC: “Among U.S. COVID-19 cases with known disposition, the proportion of persons who were hospitalized was 19%. The proportion of persons with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) was 6%â€
My friend THAT is not the common cold. In a population where the transmission is accelerating up the bell curve like a bat outta hell, just these two points alone make this a potentially catastrophic situation. Period. Full stop.
Right. Because assets are not being managed. because logistics. It's logistics.
Ship nurses in from unaffected areas when the regulars get sick. six to ten days later the original regulars are well again, and immune. That means eventually, that human assets are hardened and reliable... you just have to get over that logistical hump.
Really?! And what happens to the patients in the area from which those assets are allocated? This is not a situation where you can rob Peter to pay Paul. This “logistical†redistribution is exactly what people are talking about when they say the system will be overwhelmed. Pull masks from here, ventilators from there. Doctors from here, nurses from there. And meanwhile little Johnny dies from an infection due to compound fracture in his leg. And trucker Bill dies from burns over 30% of his body from that accident he was in. And grandma dies from an otherwise survivable heart attack.
@roamer_1
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I'll note here, though, that in states with high testing (such as New York), the hospitalization/ICU rates were somewhat lower. As of a few days ago (and I don't follow as closely as I did, for my own mental health) the hospitalization rate was closer to 12% and ICU rate 3%. Those numbers may have gone up since then.
Still higher than the flu but this is not "The Big One."
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I recognize that we are trying to avoid a short-term disastrous overload of the health care system.
My concern is that we have not properly evaluated the benefit of being able to adequately care for all of those who need care against the cost of ruining our economy. Ruining the economy is going to have disastrous effects on the health care system and all other systems. These costs may well pale in comparison to the short-term benefit of having enough ventilators.
As Trump pointed out, we make these trade-offs all the time. We don't shut down the interstate highway system because there are 1.25 million deaths from auto accidents every year. We have made the calculation that having an interstate highway system is worth the cost of 1.25 million lives per year. The same has been true of the flu. We do not shut down our economy in flu season in spite of the fact that tens of thousands die each year from the flu.
What is the value of having an airline industry, a hotel industry, a restaurant industry? If someone says "if it saves one life to lose all of these industries, it's worth it" I think that person needs to be flogged. The calculation needs to be made, not in terms of dollars, but in terms of lives. How many human lives are we willing to trade for having an airline industry? The answer to that question is not zero. It never has been.
A leader who is willing to make this calculation is not a profile in callousness, but a profile in courage.
I am not saying we should not have taken prudent measures. I am saying we have not adequately anticipated the cost/benefit to all of this. We may well be cutting off our right arm when we could have gotten by with losing a few fingers.
Remember that "flattening the curve" does not mean fewer people get the virus. It means we are going to stretch the period over which people get the virus to a longer period of time. Paradoxically, the flatter the curve the more we intentionally inflict damage to the economy.
If we look like Venezuela a year or two from now, people are not going to feel better knowing a few thousand people had ventilators when they needed them. The cost to us becoming Venezuela -- including in terms of the loss of human life -- will far surpass the loss of the lives from lack of ventilators.
I think Trump sees this clearly, but the political pressure is just too great. He cannot buck the medical experts because every subsequent death will be blamed on him. From a political standpoint, he is doing what he has to for survival. But his instincts on this are right.
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As Trump pointed out, we make these trade-offs all the time. We don't shut down the interstate highway system because there are 1.25 million deaths from auto accidents every year. We have made the calculation that having an interstate highway system is worth the cost of 1.25 million lives per year. The same has been true of the flu. We do not shut down our economy in flu season in spite of the fact that tens of thousands die each year from the flu.
What is the value of having an airline industry, a hotel industry, a restaurant industry? If someone says "if it saves one life to lose all of these industries, it's worth it" I think that person needs to be flogged.
My President, and still your President, did not shut down the cruise industry. The boat loads of dead bodies did that. It was the virus that shutdown the theaters, hotels, and restaurants. President Trump was smart to get out in front of it and claim he was in control, but he is not. The virus is.
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My President, and still your President, did not shut down the cruise industry. The boat loads of dead bodies did that. It was the virus that shutdown the theaters, hotels, and restaurants. President Trump was smart to get out in front of it and claim he was in control, but he is not. The virus is.
Agreed. However, it is one thing for the market to decide not to patronize an industry, it is quite another for the government to require the market not to patronize an industry.
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Agreed. However, it is one thing for the market to decide not to patronize an industry, it is quite another for the government to require the market not to patronize an industry.
The 15 day pause didn't mandate anyone stay home. It merely recommended Americans do so to stay alive. Best I know the new 30 day pause does the same. Thank you for your response @massadvj
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Monday — we can’t have the cure be worse than the disease.
Wednesday — I’d like to open the country up by Easter.
Sunday — Let’s have a Great Depression!
What do you even say to that? It’d be funny as hell if the joke weren’t on us.
The part I'm just not seeing is where all those hourly employees now getting fewer than 32 hours a week lose their insurance--in the middle of a pandemic.
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The part I'm just not seeing is where all those hourly employees now getting fewer than 32 hours a week lose their insurance--in the middle of a pandemic.
Phase 4 of stimulus bill should address that, and if Obama could Executive Order parts of Obamacare maybe the President can reinstate those EOs...Of course we could also just let the President lead like they do in Hungry.
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The part I'm just not seeing is where all those hourly employees now getting fewer than 32 hours a week lose their insurance--in the middle of a pandemic.
Yeah I'm not seeing that either.
On the plus side...my wife works at Amazon (part time) and they are giving away so much overtime right now her paycheck is gonna be nice.
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Yeah I'm not seeing that either.
On the plus side...my wife works at Amazon (part time) and they are giving away so much overtime right now her paycheck is gonna be nice.
In Ohio, those whose hours are restricted because of the pandemic are NOT losing their insurance.
Other states should follow suit.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
With interest rates for the United States being at ZERO, this is the time to do our decades long awaited Infrastructure Bill. It should be VERY BIG & BOLD, Two Trillion Dollars, and be focused solely on jobs and rebuilding the once great infrastructure of our Country! Phase 4
9:48 AM · Mar 31, 2020
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1245000074167541761
I hereby dub Phase 4 as "the Works Progress Administration."
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I hereby dub Phase 4 as "the Works Progress Administration."
Oh ho! A historian.
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@Axeslinger
Only with regards to the general public is panic an issue. The healthcare system decisions are being based on my points I laid out before. Panic and sound healthcare solvency decisions are not mutually exclusive
No, the health care industry has a different kind of panic - frozen in the headlights. They see it coming, and as a body, refuse to act. They WILL get run over.
While what you say is true, you are still ignoring the burden on the system. From the CDC: “Among U.S. COVID-19 cases with known disposition, the proportion of persons who were hospitalized was 19%. The proportion of persons with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) was 6%â€
My friend THAT is not the common cold. In a population where the transmission is accelerating up the bell curve like a bat outta hell, just these two points alone make this a potentially catastrophic situation. Period. Full stop.
So do nothing? That's better? Just freeze everything and wait to get hit by the train?
Friggin ridiculous.
Really?! And what happens to the patients in the area from which those assets are allocated? This is not a situation where you can rob Peter to pay Paul. This “logistical†redistribution is exactly what people are talking about when they say the system will be overwhelmed. Pull masks from here, ventilators from there. Doctors from here, nurses from there. And meanwhile little Johnny dies from an infection due to compound fracture in his leg. And trucker Bill dies from burns over 30% of his body from that accident he was in. And grandma dies from an otherwise survivable heart attack.
Oh bullcrap. There are VAST regions of this country that are as yet unaffected by this virus, and more yet where it is under control. If estimates are true, that will not last - two weeks from now, those areas will be taking it in the teeth, just like New York is now (I don't actually buy that, but for the sake of the argument...)
Every one of those areas can spare people and parts right now. They might need to put it all in overdrive to cover the absences, but they CAN do it.
Temporarily easing staffing issues.
Temporarily supplying hard and soft parts, relieving both deficits.
The hat trick is getting em back where they need to be JIT.
But it buys you three to six weeks - and if industry and supply are up and humming, there ain't a damn thing I can't get in three weeks.
And there are likewise benefits to the downstream locations that supplied earlier... Their people come back to them hardened, immune, and can hit the ground running, having standardized effective means and efficiencies, in real-world experience. And not just theirs, but a whole damn army of em, in the nick of time. The same for non-medical support. Whole crews of grips and roadies, used to setting up mash style ICU units, mobile hell-on-wheels supply chains, food systems, showers, crash pads, the whole 9 yards.
Put the damn show on the road and they WILL figure it out. Similar to what we do for forest fire fighters. Whole dang towns just show up all hauled in just in time, highly functional in support as needed, and torn down and disappeared as soon as they are done, moving to the next hotspot.
But no... better, ain't it, to let every one of those locations go through EXACTLY what is happening now, all over again, and again, and again... Everywhere the thing fires up, everybody green, working under theoretical protocols and with limited, fixed resources, sure to be inefficient, sure to be overloaded, with no help coming, and no supply chain because some dumass shut it all down. Yeah, sure... that's the ticket.
That's what castle thinking has already done. It's too late now to swing anything. Precious weeks have gone by, and the pipeline is already empty.
Stupidity at it's finest. *****rollingeyes*****