The Briefing Room

State Chapters => Florida => Topic started by: Wingnut on December 15, 2023, 11:57:42 am

Title: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in (12/15)
Post by: Wingnut on December 15, 2023, 11:57:42 am
Well this will be a 1st for us!  Not worried but my Christmas decorations might take a hit.

ORLANDO, Fla - A significant storm is coming together in a very unusual way this weekend. Three pieces of energy in the atmosphere will merge over Florida and create a strong, but non-tropical area of low pressure that yields heavy rains, winds, coastal flooding, and tornadoes.

This will not be a tropical storm because it will be "cold-cored," meaning, unlike a tropical system (think a fireplace as the eye, warm air going to the top of the storm), it has no fireplace in the center. Also, as you can see below, ocean surface temperatures are far too cool to support tropical genesis.

Where the orange shading is, the ocean temperatures are above 80 degrees. That is where the ocean can support tropical development. However, you see surface temperatures are much cooler over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Big Bend area of Florida.

https://news.yahoo.com/nws-issues-coastal-flood-warnings-151902669.html
Title: Re: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in (12/15)
Post by: catfish1957 on December 15, 2023, 12:41:30 pm
Wow, funny you brought this up.

Was telling my wife that the low in the GOM almost looks like a progenic tropical system,  And looking at the temperature profiles of the Centrai/Eastern GOM, and relatively low N/S shear, (thoought the E/W is stroong)  I at least believe there is a slight chance of tropical development, if the surface low stays intact and doesn't get shredded by that E/W winds aloft.   

But don't expect to hear that from the NHC.....   They closed shop December 1st for the year.
Title: Re: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in (12/15)
Post by: Fishrrman on December 15, 2023, 10:56:46 pm
National Radar:
(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/wu/wxtype/none/usa/animate.png)
Title: Re: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in (12/15)
Post by: libertybele on December 15, 2023, 11:08:08 pm
It is supposed to rain here all day tomorrow -- with 1-3" of rain -- 2 ft. storm surge possible with wind gusts of 20-30 mph through Sunday morning and dipping down into the 40's around  Wednesday -- we'll warm back up Christmas day.
Title: Re: Tropical storm-like conditions to slam Florida this weekend as Gulf Low moves in (12/15)
Post by: bigheadfred on December 15, 2023, 11:19:20 pm
Quote from: libertybele on December 15, 2023, 11:08:08 pm
It is supposed to rain here all day tomorrow -- with 1-3" of rain -- 2 ft. storm surge possible with wind gusts of 20-30 mph through Sunday morning and dipping down into the 40's around  Wednesday -- we'll warm back up Christmas day.

Not a lot of storm activity here and we have little snow. We might hit highs of 40 by Christmas.