Five primary races to watch as Michigan takes spotlight

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 Five primary races to watch as Michigan takes spotlight
by Jared Gans - 08/04/26 6:59 AM ET

Voters are heading to the polls today in five states around the country, with key primary contests that will help determine the direction of the Democratic Party heading into the midterm elections.

Michigan is at the center of the battle, as progressive Abdul El-Sayed and moderate Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) face off for a Senate seat that Democrats must defend if they are going to have a chance at winning control of the upper chamber.

A handful of key House primaries in Michigan will also reveal more information about where Democratic voters want their party to go. And we’ll find out whether former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) can get revenge after being unseated two years ago.

Here are five Democratic primaries to keep an eye on as polls close this evening:

Michigan Senate race

All eyes are on the battle between El-Sayed and Stevens to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), a contest that is a microcosm of the debate that’s been dividing the party throughout the year.

Establishment Democrats have coalesced behind Stevens, a recruit of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). Peters, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and state Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) all backed Stevens in recent weeks.

They’re hoping to help Stevens fend off El-Sayed, a progressive favorite who has garnered widespread support from the party’s left wing, including Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

A debate over the U.S. relationship with Israel has become a defining issue in the race. El-Sayed has been sharply critical of Israel over its war against Hamas in Gaza and called for cutting off military aid to the country.

Groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) have spent a record $30 million propping up Stevens’s candidacy. She has emphasized her criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but said she does not believe Israel is carrying out genocide in Gaza.

El-Sayed appears to be the favorite heading into the primary, as he leads by 13 points in the Decision Desk HQ polling average.

Michigan 7th District

A similar clash between the Democratic Party’s wings is taking place in a battleground district centered around the state capital Lansing. Rather than a straightforward match-up, two moderates and one progressive are vying for the nomination, creating a possible spoiler situation.

The Democrats are seeking to take on Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.). The seat should be a key pickup opportunity with the party favored to win back control of the House in November.

Sunrise Movement co-founder Will Lawrence is running in the left-wing lane, earning support from Sanders, El-Sayed and members of the “squad” in the House. The most recent public poll of the race showed Lawrence ahead, but his path to victory may lie in his rivals splitting the opposition.

Former U.S. Ambassador Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam are both running as moderates. Polling suggests they might win a larger percentage of the vote than Lawrence but fall short individually, concerning some Democrats who see Lawrence as more vulnerable against Barrett.

Lawrence, like El-Sayed, has brushed off concerns about his viability.

Michigan 11th District

State Senate President pro tempore Jeremy Moss (D) is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination for the seat that Stevens is vacating, though he still faces some notable opposition.

Former Ford Motor Company engineer Don Ufford is running as an outsider, trying to lean into a populist appeal that has proved effective for some Democratic candidates. He’s also criticized Moss for accepting donations from individuals aligned with AIPAC.

Attorney Aisha Farooqi is also running to Moss’s left with support from progressive Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), but she has struggled to keep up with fundraising.

Whoever wins the primary will be the favorite in the left-leaning district.

Michigan 13th District

Progressives have sought to oust Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) before, only to fall short, but they’re hoping this year may be the year.

Thanedar is facing a one-on-one race against state Rep. Donovan McKinney (D), who is supported by the Democratic Socialists of America and the left-wing Justice Democrats. In an unusual move, sitting members of the Congressional Black Caucus broke with Democratic leadership to endorse McKinney.

McKinney has sought to portray Thanedar as out of touch, slamming him over his significant wealth. The congressman has poured millions of dollars of his own money to boost his campaign.

Thanedar, a rare non-Black member representing the plurality Black district, has emphasized his own progressive bona fides, rejecting skepticism from critics.

Missouri 1st District

Former Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) is seeking to do to Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) what he did to her two years ago.

Bell’s successful primary run against Bush in 2024 was one of the most high-profile Democratic primary battles of the year. Bush’s comeback attempt in the St. Louis district has received somewhat less national attention but is still just as contentious.

Once again, Israel has been a key dividing issue between the candidates, both of whom consider themselves progressive. Bush has been a harsh critic of Israel’s war in Gaza, while an AIPAC-aligned super PAC has spent millions to try to defend Bell, as it did in 2024.

The race will provide a test on whether the views of the district’s constituents have changed enough in the past two years to help Bush flip her previous 5-point loss.

https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/6007150-five-primaries-to-watch-michigan-in-spotlight/