Democrats favored to win House, underdogs in Senate 100 days out
by Julia Mueller - 07/26/26 6:00 AM ET
Democrats are favored to win the House but are slight underdogs in the fight for the Senate with 100 days to go before the midterms, according to the latest forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ).
Both parties are dealing with headwinds as they head into the home stretch of the high-stakes election.
Republicans are worried about the escalation of the Iran war, which only a few weeks ago seemed on the edge of ending. The new fighting risks widening the war as the Iran-backed Houthis move to close the Red Sea to ships. It’s all led to a new spike in oil prices, adding to the Trump administration’s economic woes.
Democrats, meanwhile, are dealing with a bitter debate about the direction of the party that has given a new line of attack for the GOP.
Wins by democratic socialist and antiestablishment candidates in House primaries across the country have sparked concerns from centrists that their party will be characterized as too extreme. It’s a line of attack being emphasized by President Trump and GOP leaders in Washington working to convince voters not to hand power to the Democratic Party.
The result is a situation 100 days out that gives both parties reasons to be hopeful and worried.
“It’s a competitive situation in both the Senate and the House,” said Geoffrey Skelley, DDHQ’s chief elections analyst.
Democrats like their chances in the House, where the GOP is gripping a narrow lead in a midterm year in which the president’s party has historically lost seats. In the Senate, Democrats have a shot at the majority but will need to win seats in several states won by Trump.
DDHQ forecasts Democrats winning a 15-seat advantage in a 225-210 House, while Republicans narrowly retain power in a 50-50 Senate with Vice President Vance as the tiebreaker vote. As of late July, Democrats had a 60 percent probability of winning the lower chamber, while Republicans had a 60 percent chance of holding the Senate.
That represents a tightening in the fight for the House since the start of the month, when the model indicated Democrats could have as much as a 25-seat advantage.
And a slight narrowing of the high-stakes cycle is borne out in recent polling on a generic congressional ballot.
DDHQ’s averages show Democrats with a 4-point advantage over Republicans on a generic ballot. That includes July polling from YouGov/The Economist, which found Democrats up 5 points in its latest survey, and from Morning Consult, which put Democrats up just 3 points. Last month, the average was closer to a 6- or 7-point edge for Democrats.
A new survey from Emerson College Polling painted a more promising picture for Democrats. It showed them with an 11-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot. But it remains to be seen whether that double-digit edge is a sign of momentum or an outlier.
Skelley said the Emerson data “suggests a real range of opinions about what things are going to look like in the fall.”
Democrats hope they can capture voters souring on Trump and frustrated with a GOP-controlled Congress.
Voter unhappiness with the economy is driving Trump’s lackluster approval numbers. It promises to be the biggest issue of the 2026 midterms and is deeply intertwined with the Iran war.
“The big question is: will the Iranian conflict … will people being concerned about that ratcheting up, is that going to create reverberations in things like the generic ballot that signal ‘OK, Democrats’ advantage is growing again’?” Skelley said.
On the generic ballot averages, the Democrats’ lead expanded as the Iran conflict picked up earlier this year, spiking gas prices in an electoral environment already wrought by economic strain. As the conflict eased somewhat and gas prices fell in the spring, Republicans narrowed the gap in some polling.
“The challenge for Republicans is the Iranian conflict is heating up again,” Skelley said, pointing to this past week’s news that gas prices were on the rise as the conflict continued to build.
“This is politically very bad for the GOP. For them to try to make a case that Democrats are too extreme, it’s a lot easier to make that case if economic conditions are at least OK,” he said.
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5987178-midterm-forecast-house-senate/
