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General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: mystery-ak on August 04, 2015, 10:07:21 pm

Title: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: mystery-ak on August 04, 2015, 10:07:21 pm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/04/boy-was-i-wrong-about-donald-trump-heres-why/

Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why.
By Chris Cillizza August 4 at 10:57 AM

Donald Trump is now doubling the rest of the Republican field in the average of the last five national polls. And polling out of early states like New Hampshire puts him in the pole position in those places too.

All of which makes having written a piece on June 17 headlined, "Why no one should take Donald Trump seriously, in one very simple chart" that argued why, well, no one should take Donald Trump seriously, pretty embarrassing. Not to mention wrong.

In case your detective work is at "True Detective" season 2 levels -- for non-show watchers, that means not so good -- I am the person who wrote that piece dismissing The Donald as even a semi-serious candidate for the presidency. My reasoning was pretty straightforward: Trump was regarded incredibly negatively by Republican voters. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters had a favorable opinion of Trump in a May Washington Post-ABC News poll, while 65 percent viewed him negatively. Eleven percent of Republicans felt strongly favorably toward Trump; 43 percent felt strongly negatively.

(https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/files/2015/08/Screen-Shot-2015-08-04-at-10.30.55-AM1.png&w=1484)

At the time, I wrote this:

Quote
You cannot and do not win anything when your numbers look like Trump's. I can't say it any more clearly than that. There's nothing you can say or do -- not that Trump would ever even consider going on an image rehabilitation tour -- to change how people feel about you. Republicans know Trump. And they really, really don't like him.

continued
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 04, 2015, 10:57:11 pm
He's the un-politician and pubbies like that aspect of his entry in this race. The rest of the field are career pols. Ewe! Icky!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 04, 2015, 11:10:03 pm
My sense is that more and more people, especially Republicans and independents, are imagining Donald Trump as POTUS and the more they think about it, the less preposterous the idea seems.  I too have been imagining Trump as POTUS and I must say that I have gone from horror-stricken at the notion of it to simply confused as to what kind of president the man would be.  Yes, Trump is a narcissistic creep, but he is very obviously a competent narcissistic creep or he would not have accomplished the things he has in his life.  So I have gone from anti-Trump to possibly open to Trump, and I don't think I am alone.  That could be dangerous for the rest of the GOP field.

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 04, 2015, 11:14:55 pm
My sense is that more and more people, especially Republicans and independents, are imagining Donald Trump as POTUS and the more they think about it, the less preposterous the idea seems.  I too have been imagining Trump as POTUS and I must say that I have gone from horror-stricken at the notion of it to simply confused as to what kind of president the man would be.  Yes, Trump is a narcissistic creep, but he is very obviously a competent narcissistic creep or he would not have accomplished the things he has in his life.  So I have gone from anti-Trump to possibly open to Trump, and I don't think I am alone.  That could be dangerous for the rest of the GOP field.

Yeah ... trying to rationalize a vote for a Kardashian versus a win by default by a Trotskyite is a bear.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: mystery-ak on August 04, 2015, 11:28:29 pm
My sense is that more and more people, especially Republicans and independents, are imagining Donald Trump as POTUS and the more they think about it, the less preposterous the idea seems.  I too have been imagining Trump as POTUS and I must say that I have gone from horror-stricken at the notion of it to simply confused as to what kind of president the man would be.  Yes, Trump is a narcissistic creep, but he is very obviously a competent narcissistic creep or he would not have accomplished the things he has in his life.  So I have gone from anti-Trump to possibly open to Trump, and I don't think I am alone.  That could be dangerous for the rest of the GOP field.

word
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 04, 2015, 11:50:58 pm
I think one factor of his rising popularity is that Trump has real accomplishments under his belt. His name is at the top of skyscrapers all over the world. Trump gets things done, on time, and on budget. Can you imagine a Chris Christie or Lindsey Graham, or even a Scott Walker achieving such hights of success?

And make no mistake, Trump will expose the tremendous waste in bureaucratic infrastructure projects that typically come in so far above projected costs that in fact the money is being stolen. Over the years this waste comes to billions of tax payer dollars.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 04, 2015, 11:52:12 pm
My sense is that more and more people, especially Republicans and independents, are imagining Donald Trump as POTUS and the more they think about it, the less preposterous the idea seems.  I too have been imagining Trump as POTUS and I must say that I have gone from horror-stricken at the notion of it to simply confused as to what kind of president the man would be.  Yes, Trump is a narcissistic creep, but he is very obviously a competent narcissistic creep or he would not have accomplished the things he has in his life.  So I have gone from anti-Trump to possibly open to Trump, and I don't think I am alone.  That could be dangerous for the rest of the GOP field.

You are obviously not alone. At this point he is running away with it. All his opponents are politicians. That gives him a big advantage in this market
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 12:17:47 am
My sense is that more and more people, especially Republicans and independents, are imagining Donald Trump as POTUS and the more they think about it, the less preposterous the idea seems.  I too have been imagining Trump as POTUS and I must say that I have gone from horror-stricken at the notion of it to simply confused as to what kind of president the man would be.  Yes, Trump is a narcissistic creep, but he is very obviously a competent narcissistic creep or he would not have accomplished the things he has in his life.  So I have gone from anti-Trump to possibly open to Trump, and I don't think I am alone.  That could be dangerous for the rest of the GOP field.

He accomplished the things that he has in his life at the head of a corporation that belonged to him, where he ruled unquestionably and largely unchallenged.

Those are not the characteristics that most people look for in a POTUS, where we allegedly elect people to serve, not rule.

We are just seeing the light at the end of the tunnel of being ruled by a narcissistic creep, and here we are considering another one. Donald Trump has never had an idea that Donald Trump didn't think was the best idea ever had by anyone who's ever had an idea.

At least, as the head of the Trump organization, when he makes his decision and implements those ideas, he does it as the as the head of the Trump organization and bears personal and fiscal responsibility for the results of those decisions and ideas.

With Trump as POTUS, we will bear the personal and fiscal responsibilities for those ideas and decisions, and in typical Donal Trump fashion, we will probably be at fault for those failures, because The Donald, according to The Donald, never fails.

Here's how I picture a Trump Presidency... all failures are someone else's fault and all successes are solely due to his genius.

A.K.A. Obama with sculpted hair.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: musiclady on August 05, 2015, 12:24:12 am
He's the un-politician and pubbies like that aspect of his entry in this race. The rest of the field are career pols. Ewe! Icky!

Except Carson.

And he's up there pretty high right now.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 12:27:30 am
Personally, I am coming around to the idea of Trump as the GOP nominee.

Not for the reason most would think, but as valid as reason as anyone else's.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: jmyrlefuller on August 05, 2015, 12:29:07 am
I'm still very much anti-Trump and think he's a threat to the party and conservatism in general.

But it's clear Trump has gone all in. I never expected him to do so, given his past dalliances with politics where he'd threaten to run, then back out. When he started talking about Mexicans, and he lost his TV deal and the such, he doubled down and didn't turn back. He's fully vested into this race. That trait is something a lot of us have wanted in our politicians for a long time. (He's far from alone on these things, either. Many of the strengths of Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, all of whom have solid followings that are being hurt by the Trump campaign, come from their willingness to stand for their position in the face of liberal backlash. It's Trump, with his billions and his known eccentricities, that hogs the attention, which is something he's always loved.)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 05, 2015, 12:29:16 am
Personally, I am coming around to the idea of Trump as the GOP nominee.

Not for the reason most would think, but as valid as reason as anyone else's.

OK i'll bite.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 12:33:49 am
OK i'll bite.

I want conservatives to stake their worth on a Trump candidacy.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 12:36:05 am
Personally, I am coming around to the idea of Trump as the GOP nominee.

Not for the reason most would think, but as valid as reason as anyone else's.

Don't you think a brilliant idea at this time would be for Jon Stewart to run on the Dem side?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 05, 2015, 12:42:33 am
I want conservatives to stake their worth on a Trump candidacy.

Conservative, liberal, GOP, dem. Trump seems to be defying the lines and at this time it's not about that for many voters. He may split every group and subgroup for the win
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 12:45:47 am
Conservative, liberal, GOP, dem. Trump seems to be defying the lines and at this time it's not about that for many voters. He may split every group and subgroup for the win

And only God knows what that would mean.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 12:50:19 am
And only God knows what that would mean.

Considering all the damage Obama has done to our Republic, it may take a mover and shaker to bring it back.

One of an entrepreneur's common strengths is the ability to delegate responsibility and hire the right people to "Git er' done!" 

If I could change one thing about his approach at THIS time, is to tone down the ego a bit.  It grates on me.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 12:55:55 am
Considering all the damage Obama has done to our Republic, it may take a mover and shaker to bring it back.

One of an entrepreneur's common strengths is the ability to delegate responsibility and hire the right people to "Git er' done!" 

If I could change one thing about his approach at THIS time, is to tone down the ego a bit.  It grates on me.

A mover and shaker how?  Do you actually believe Trump knows anything of cares anything about conservatism?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: libertybele on August 05, 2015, 12:59:45 am
I think in watching the debate many will be asking or imaging what would Trump be like as a president?  He can negotiate but does he know the "ins" and outs" of what it takes to be a president?  Constitutional and Congressional law?  I think though it sure seems right now that he's going to be in for the long haul and very possibly our nominee. Where he may get more of a following is going to be greatly dependent on who he picks to run with him.  Definitely not a Bush or a Christie.  I see him possibly picking Fiorina. Maybe even Cruz.  It depends on what they will bring to the table for him; Firoina of course for the perhaps needed female vote and Cruz of course for the Constitutional conservative vote.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 05, 2015, 01:02:55 am
Considering all the damage Obama has done to our Republic, it may take a mover and shaker to bring it back.

One of an entrepreneur's common strengths is the ability to delegate responsibility and hire the right people to "Git er' done!" 

If I could change one thing about his approach at THIS time, is to tone down the ego a bit.  It grates on me.

Trump seems to understand the importance of surrounding himself with competent people. The ego....well, it is what it is. The best way Trump could help himself now is to start speaking about the importance of the constitution. I don't know if he has that in him and that is troubling to me
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Bigun on August 05, 2015, 01:04:34 am
I think in watching the debate many will be asking or imaging what would Trump be like as a president?  He can negotiate but does he know the "ins" and outs" of what it takes to be a president?  Constitutional and Congressional law?  I think though it sure seems right now that he's going to be in for the long haul and very possibly our nominee. Where he may get more of a following is going to be greatly dependent on who he picks to run with him.  Definitely not a Bush or a Christie.  I see him possibly picking Fiorina. Maybe even Cruz.  It depends on what they will bring to the table for him; Firoina of course for the perhaps needed female vote and Cruz of course for the Constitutional conservative vote.

I can see it all now! President Trump as the front man with Vice president Cruz behind the scenes pulling all the strings!   That could work and for 16 years not eight!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 05, 2015, 01:04:40 am
I want conservatives to stake their worth on a Trump candidacy.

Yeah.  Talk about the potential for rude awakenings.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:04:55 am
A mover and shaker how?  Do you actually believe Trump knows anything of cares anything about conservatism?

I don't give a damn.   Said it a hundred times in here.  I want to fix what Obama and the Left has broken these past 7+ years.

Am a Republican first.  And a Conservative (fiscally) second. 

I'm still very nervous about this Planned Parenthood thing.  I smell a trap that is going to cost the women's vote.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:08:44 am
I don't give a damn.   Said it a hundred times in here.  I want to fix what Obama and the Left has broken these past 7+ years.

Am a Republican first.  And a Conservative (fiscally) second. 

I'm still very nervous about this Planned Parenthood thing.  I smell a trap that is going to cost the women's vote.

Have you ever read serious conservative philosophy such as "The Conservative Mind From Burke to Ellitot"?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:15:23 am
Have you ever read serious conservative philosophy such as "The Conservative Mind From Burke to Ellitot"?

Can't say I have.  Mostly Friedman and Buckley.   :shrug:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:23:57 am
Can't say I have.  Mostly Friedman and Buckley.   :shrug:

If I could I would buy it for you then I think we would understand each other.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:53:19 am
If I could I would buy it for you then I think we would understand each other.

I'll look for it.    :beer:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 02:00:57 am
I'll look for it.    :beer:

Ok ...not saying it is truth...just explains why I hate populists I think and is one of the very first books to explore American conservatism.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 02:30:00 am
Can't say I have.  Mostly Friedman and Buckley.   :shrug:

Friedman, Buckley and Trump.

It's like one of those "what doesn't belong here?" puzzles.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 02:37:11 am
Don't you think a brilliant idea at this time would be for Jon Stewart to run on the Dem side?

(https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/2-photos20.jpg?w=720&h=480&crop=1)

The idea that we may be about to tell the entire world that those two are the best that the nation that gave us Jefferson, Washington, Lincoln and Reagan has to offer is mind-boggling.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 02:38:33 am
Conservative, liberal, GOP, dem. Trump seems to be defying the lines and at this time it's not about that for many voters. He may split every group and subgroup for the win

He loses big against Hillary, Sanders and Biden, and Biden isn't even running.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 02:39:32 am
Yeah.  Talk about the potential for rude awakenings.

I'm voting for Trump in the primaries.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 02:42:22 am
Friedman, Buckley and Trump.

It's like one of those "what doesn't belong here?" puzzles.

LOL!   Ain't that the truth? 

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 05, 2015, 02:49:10 am
Friedman, Buckley and Trump.

It's like one of those "what doesn't belong here?" puzzles.

It is mind numbing.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 05, 2015, 03:06:21 am
He loses big against Hillary, Sanders and Biden, and Biden isn't even running.

I'd take that bet in a heartbeat
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Paladin on August 05, 2015, 04:06:17 am
Aligncare: He's the un-politician and pubbies like that aspect of his entry in this race. The rest of the field are career pols. Ewe! Icky

Music Lady: Except Carson.

Don't forget Carly.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 05, 2015, 04:26:58 am
He loses big against Hillary, Sanders and Biden, and Biden isn't even running.

Yes, but I will say that if Trump can get a majority of GOP primary voters on board, given the negatives he had to start with, I wouldn't underestimate him against any other opposition.  I am not saying he will win the primary, mind you, but I think his greatest challenge is the primary.  After that, I think with control of the party apparatus and all that goes with it, he'll have unstoppable momentum going into the general election.  This is particularly true if Hillary or Biden is atop the Dem ticket.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: truth_seeker on August 05, 2015, 04:43:23 am
A mover and shaker how?  Do you actually believe Trump knows anything of cares anything about conservatism?
Even if he doesn't use left-right, liberal-conservative labels, there is an incredible opportunity to really start firing people at the higher levels.

There used to be something like 800 political appointees available to each President, to make at the top of agencies. Many Presidents probably don't replace all 800.

Another area would be budgeting. Change the way fedgov does budgets.

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 04:48:13 am
Yes, but I will say that if Trump can get a majority of GOP primary voters on board, given the negatives he had to start with, I wouldn't underestimate him against any other opposition.  I am not saying he will win the primary, mind you, but I think his greatest challenge is the primary.  After that, I think with control of the party apparatus and all that goes with it, he'll have unstoppable momentum going into the general election.  This is particularly true if Hillary or Biden is atop the Dem ticket.

From Townhall.com 7/30/15:

Donald Trump may be surging in GOP polls, but according to a new Quinnipiac poll, he is the worst performing Republican in the general election. He even loses to one of the weaker Democratic candidates: the socialist, Bernie Sanders.

The new poll shows Trump losing to Hillary Clinton, the probable Democratic nominee, 48 to 36. That's a 12-point loss to a woman the American people do not trust. We knew from prior polling data that Americans don't trust Hillary — but interestingly, this new poll shows that Trump's trust levels are just as low as hers. Fifty-eight percent of Americans distrust Donald Trump, while 57 percent distrust Hillary.

Trump also loses to Bernie Sanders 45 to 37 — an eight-point differential. He also loses to Joe Biden (who hasn't declared a candidacy) by 12 points — 49 to 37. Trump may be surging in GOP quarters, but he would clearly be a dead loss in a general election. He doesn't beat a single Democrat in this poll.

Let's also mention that Trump lost to Sanders by 21 points in another recent national poll.

Trump's low numbers against Democrats are highly telling in part because other Republicans do quite well by comparison. Scott Walker beats Bernie Sanders by five points, ties Joe Biden, and trails Hillary by one point. Jeb Bush also beats Sanders by five points, trails Joe Biden by one, and beats Hillary by one.

These results, along with the extensive swing-state polls from last week, put both Scott Walker and Jeb Bush in strong positions going forward. Walker led Clinton by nine points in Colorado, three points in Virginia, and eight points in Iowa. He's also in second place among GOP voters, and he looks poised to win the Iowa caucus as the current front-runner in that state. Trump's surge has certainly challenged Walker in Iowa, but Trump still trails him by two. If Trump's support has maxed out at this point (and it likely has), Walker's lead will likely only improve in Iowa.

Bush has shored up much of the moderate GOP vote, though that support is now being contested by John Kasich, the newest of the GOP candidates. Kasich claimed five percent of the GOP vote in the recent nationwide poll, and Bush — who last week received 15 percent support — has now fallen to 10 percent.

The Trump surge has largely skewed our understanding of how conservatives see the other Republican candidates. His rise has caused support for the other prominent conservatives to dry up — particularly for Ted Cruz, Ben Carson and Marco Rubio. Trump is likely also stealing support from the still-prominent Scott Walker. The numbers are still very much in flux, and we'll have to wait until the debate season (which starts August 6) to see how they begin to shake out. If Trump declines, we'll get a better picture of what conservatives actually think about the other candidates. They are arguably the best Republican field since 1980, and this is an election that Republicans can win.

If there's any candidate who can become the anti-Trump, it will probably have to be a governor — and it is likely Scott Walker. It will have to be a governor because the senators in this race are all in some way tainted by Washington, and Trump is drawing most of his support from anti-Washington frustration. Walker possesses all the characteristics of a true reformer: he's foreign to Washington, has a stellar track record in Wisconsin (a potential swing state), and brings youthful energy. There are, of course, others who can fill those shoes: Rick Perry, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal — successful governors each in their own right. We'll just have wait and see what the debates hold.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 05, 2015, 11:33:28 am
From Townhall.com 7/30/15:

Donald Trump may be surging in GOP polls, but according to a new Quinnipiac poll, he is the worst performing Republican in the general election.

But, as this article points out, Trump had the worst negatives with Republicans a short time ago and somehow turned that into a juggernaut.  There is no reason to believe that, assuming he could win the GOP primary, he couldn't also pull off a win against Hillary or Biden.  Plus, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who could match Hillary dollar for dollar if he wanted to.

The whole point of the posted article is that Trump is overcoming the traditional view that high negatives in politics necessarily translate to high likelihood of failure.

Apparently, we have reached an era in American politics in which audacity is the most rewarded attribute a candidate can have.  If that is the case, then there are very few people in the country who could compete with Trump.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 11:44:04 am
But, as this article points out, Trump had the worst negatives with Republicans a short time ago and somehow turned that into a juggernaut.  There is no reason to believe that, assuming he could win the GOP primary, he couldn't also pull off a win against Hillary or Biden.  Plus, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who could match Hillary dollar for dollar if he wanted to.

The whole point of the posted article is that Trump is overcoming the traditional view that high negatives in politics necessarily translate to high likelihood of failure.

Apparently, we have reached an era in American politics in which audacity is the most rewarded attribute a candidate can have.  If that is the case, then there are very few people in the country who could compete with Trump.

Here's a great article/essay that further explains why Donald Trump could win...even as a 3rd party candidate.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/hard_truth_for_the_gop_from_its_base.html (http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/hard_truth_for_the_gop_from_its_base.html)   posted in Opinion Category.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 05, 2015, 12:50:03 pm
Aligncare: He's the un-politician and pubbies like that aspect of his entry in this race. The rest of the field are career pols. Ewe! Icky

Music Lady: Except Carson.

Don't forget Carly.

Yes, certainly. My oversight. But, the fact is that Trump and the large number of entries into the race have obscured Carson and Fiorina, both good people without any breakout potential, however.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 12:59:20 pm
But, as this article points out, Trump had the worst negatives with Republicans a short time ago and somehow turned that into a juggernaut.  There is no reason to believe that, assuming he could win the GOP primary, he couldn't also pull off a win against Hillary or Biden.  Plus, he is the only candidate in the Republican field who could match Hillary dollar for dollar if he wanted to.

The whole point of the posted article is that Trump is overcoming the traditional view that high negatives in politics necessarily translate to high likelihood of failure.

Apparently, we have reached an era in American politics in which audacity is the most rewarded attribute a candidate can have.  If that is the case, then there are very few people in the country who could compete with Trump.

Thirty percent of Republicans say that they will absolutely will not vote for him and nearly sixty percent of all voters say the same.

Twenty something percent approval/support in the GOP does not overcome either one of those numbers.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:12:01 pm
Thirty percent of Republicans say that they will absolutely will not vote for him and nearly sixty percent of all voters say the same.

Twenty something percent approval/support in the GOP does not overcome either one of those numbers.

I'll go on record here, and bet you a dollar, Luis, that the GOP ticket is going to be Trump/Cruz. (even though my initial favorite was Walker/Rubio.

And, I'll bet you another dollar that they'll win next November.   Even should they go 3rd party.

Cruz has been maligned by the GOP as much as Trump as been dissed by the GOPe, so it's not a stretch to see Cruz accept his place on the ticket.

Trump has grabbed the ONE issue that will bring a healthy, sufficient cross-over over Democrat voters.  Illegal immigration.

It's time for everybody to get on board and admit that Trump is no joke.

PS:  O'Reilly joked with Trump last night that he had to go through a gauntlet of physical and written inspection/searches before he was allowed to even see him to do the interview.   That's good to know.   I'm worried about his well-being.  The Left is scared poop-less of him and don't want to lose everything Obama has advanced.


edit to add:  of course I could be wrong.  I swore Romney was going to win by a Reagan-type landslide.    :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:15:57 pm
Thirty percent of Republicans say that they will absolutely will not vote for him and nearly sixty percent of all voters say the same.

Twenty something percent approval/support in the GOP does not overcome either one of those numbers.

Come on....polls are completely worthless, when the subject is anything Republican.  Especially 1-1/2 years out.  Populism rules today.  And the American people are pi$$ed off.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:21:46 pm
I'll go on record here, and bet you a dollar, Luis, that the GOP ticket is going to be Trump/Cruz. (even though my initial favorite was Walker/Rubio.

And, I'll bet you another dollar that they'll win next November.   Even should they go 3rd party.

Cruz has been maligned by the GOP as much as Trump as been dissed by the GOPe, so it's not a stretch to see Cruz accept his place on the ticket.

Trump has grabbed the ONE issue that will bring a healthy, sufficient cross-over over Democrat voters.  Illegal immigration.

It's time for everybody to get on board and admit that Trump is no joke.

PS:  O'Reilly joked with Trump last night that he had to go through a gauntlet of physical and written inspection/searches before he was allowed to even see him to do the interview.   That's good to know.   I'm worried about his well-being.  The Left is scared poop-less of him and don't want to lose everything Obama has advanced.


edit to add:  of course I could be wrong.  I swore Romney was going to win by a Reagan-type landslide.    :laugh:

Just FYI, to appeal to the independents Trump needs to come up with good reasons to believe he can improve the economy.  Not just blustering sound-bytes either in my opinion.

Overall, voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country (30 percent).  Next it’s terrorism and health care (11 percent each). Less than one voter in 10 says the top problem is immigration (7 percent), foreign policy (7 percent), the federal deficit (7 percent), race relations (5 percent), climate change (5 percent), gay marriage (3 percent), taxes (3 percent) and abortion (2 percent).
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:23:30 pm
Come on....polls are completely worthless, when the subject is anything Republican.  Especially 1-1/2 years out.  Populism rules today.  And the American people are pi$$ed off.

So far the appears to be true only of the GOP.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:25:30 pm
Just FYI, to appeal to the independents Trump needs to come up with good reasons to believe he can improve the economy.  Not just blustering sound-bytes either in my opinion.

Overall, voters say the economy is the most important issue facing the country (30 percent).  Next it’s terrorism and health care (11 percent each). Less than one voter in 10 says the top problem is immigration (7 percent), foreign policy (7 percent), the federal deficit (7 percent), race relations (5 percent), climate change (5 percent), gay marriage (3 percent), taxes (3 percent) and abortion (2 percent).

Uh.....perhaps you haven't seen what's on Trump's ever present-baseball cap?   :whistle:

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:28:44 pm
Uh.....perhaps you haven't seen what's on Trump's ever present-baseball cap?   :whistle:

No what's it say?  "It's the economy stupid"?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:35:07 pm
No what's it say?  "It's the economy stupid"?

No...but that worked for Bubba, didn't it?    :whistle:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 01:36:45 pm
(http://img1.etsystatic.com/073/0/6314299/il_570xN.808215769_pdcu.jpg)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 01:42:48 pm
(http://img1.etsystatic.com/073/0/6314299/il_570xN.808215769_pdcu.jpg)

That is such an empty slogan.  If it was coming from Hillary you'd puke.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 02:16:23 pm
That is such an empty slogan.  If it was coming from Hillary you'd puke.

Hey...YOU'RE the one who said the most important issue was the economy.  Not me.

The phrase rings loud to the 93+ million Americans no longer in the workforce...whether retired or stuck living in an underground economy.

And if somebody who built a nest of $10 BILLION told me he could do it...I'd listen.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Longiron on August 05, 2015, 02:17:04 pm
That is such an empty slogan.  If it was coming from Hillary you'd puke.

EMPTY but true and it is WORKING and that makes you want to PUKE???? :chairbang:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Longiron on August 05, 2015, 02:18:27 pm
Hey...YOU'RE the one who said the most important issue was the economy.  Not me.

The phrase rings loud to the 93+ million Americans no longer in the workforce...whether retired or stuck living in an underground economy.

And if somebody who built a nest of $10 BILLION told me he could do it...I'd listen.

AND yes!!!! "he did build that"" goopo
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 02:21:55 pm
That is such an empty slogan.  If it was coming from Hillary you'd puke.

Furthermore, it would never come from Hillary's mouth.   She's the one who said this:

"We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good."
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 02:24:42 pm
Hey...YOU'RE the one who said the most important issue was the economy.  Not me.

The phrase rings loud to the 93+ million Americans no longer in the workforce...whether retired or stuck living in an underground economy.

And if somebody who built a nest of $10 BILLION told me he could do it...I'd listen.

Make America great again says nothing about the economy.  It could mean anything.   It's like how he'd fix Obamacare, by replacing it with something "terrific".  Ok well that's "terrific" I guess.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: mountaineer on August 05, 2015, 02:35:41 pm
All campaign slogans are pithy nothings. (Wait, I think that's the first time I ever approved of a sweeping generalization!)

Happy days are here again! In your heart, you know he's right!  He kept us out of war! I'm just wild about Harry!

When I ran for state legislature, mine was "The right choice - for a change," which referred both to my being right (correct and conservative) and the fact that most past elections for that post had been  unopposed, thus the voters finally had a choice.

I just came across this press release:
Quote
FOLSOM, Calif., Aug. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- Tagline Guru™, one of the world's leading verbal branding agencies, today released its survey of the best and worst slogans of the 22 announced candidates running for President of the United States.

According to 250 branding, marketing, and advertising professionals, Mike Huckabee's From Hope to Higher Ground was ranked the highest from the Class of 2016, followed by A Political Revolution is Coming (Bernie Sanders); Telling It Like It Is (Chris Christie); Defeat the Washington Machine. Unleash the American Dream (Rand Paul); People Over Politics (George Pataki); Reigniting the Promise for America (Ted Cruz); and Jeb! (Jeb Bush).

Slogans that received the lowest rankings were We Must Do Right and Risk the Consequences (Rick Perry); Reform. Growth. Safety. (Scott Walker); Kasich for Us (John Kasich); Make America Great Again (Donald Trump); Ready to Be Commander-In-Chief on Day One (Lindsey Graham); Gilmore for America (Jim Gilmore); and Heal. Inspire. Revive. (Dr. Ben Carson).

Slogans from Lincoln Chafee, Hillary Clinton, Carly Fiorina, Bobby Jindal, Martin O'Malley, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Jim Webb were ranked in the middle - neither the best nor the worst.

Rankings were based on whether the slogans were catchy and memorable, told an inviting and persuasive story, and captured the personality of the candidate or spirit of the campaign. ...
More (http://www.kcentv.com/story/29703823/tagline-guru-releases-survey-of-2016-us-presidential-campaign-slogans)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 02:41:12 pm
All campaign slogans are pithy nothings. (Wait, I think that's the first time I ever approved of a sweeping generalization!)

Happy days are here again! In your heart, you know he's right!  He kept us out of war! I'm just wild about Harry!

When I ran for state legislature, mine was "The right choice - for a change," which referred both to my being right (correct and conservative) and the fact that most past elections for that post had been  unopposed, thus the voters finally had a choice.

I just came across this press release:More (http://www.kcentv.com/story/29703823/tagline-guru-releases-survey-of-2016-us-presidential-campaign-slogans)

According to 250 branding, marketing, and advertising professionals, Mike Huckabee's From Hope to Higher Ground was ranked the highest from the Class of 2016, followed by A Political Revolution is Coming (Bernie Sanders); Telling It Like It Is (Chris Christie); Defeat the Washington Machine. Unleash the American Dream (Rand Paul); People Over Politics (George Pataki); Reigniting the Promise for America (Ted Cruz); and Jeb! (Jeb Bush).

Obviously slogans don't work but anyway the whole conversation about Trump's slogan proceeded from a remark I made that Trump needs to get a good focus on the economy if he could actually win the presidency since the economy is America's #1 concern.  Interestingly none of these "winning" slogans says much about the economy.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 02:48:37 pm
According to 250 branding, marketing, and advertising professionals, Mike Huckabee's From Hope to Higher Ground was ranked the highest from the Class of 2016, followed by A Political Revolution is Coming (Bernie Sanders); Telling It Like It Is (Chris Christie); Defeat the Washington Machine. Unleash the American Dream (Rand Paul); People Over Politics (George Pataki); Reigniting the Promise for America (Ted Cruz); and Jeb! (Jeb Bush).

Obviously slogans don't work but anyway the whole conversation about Trump's slogan proceeded from a remark I made that Trump needs to get a good focus on the economy if he could actually win the presidency since the economy is America's #1 concern.  Interestingly none of these "winning" slogans says much about the economy.

I'm just a dumb, ignorant, average American.  Retired...for all intents and purposes.  With an IQ of only 125.

When the economy around me is struggling now going on seven years, and I see a slogan "Making America Great Again", that's the ONLY connection as to its meaning.

I apologize for inferring you were a 'troll' the other day.   

Obtuse and/or insufferable work better.   :chairbang:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 02:51:01 pm
I'm just a dumb, ignorant, average American.  Retired...for all intents and purposes.  With an IQ of only 125.

When the economy around me is struggling now going on seven years, and I see a slogan "Making America Great Again", that's the ONLY connection as to its meaning.

I apologize for inferring you were a 'troll' the other day.   

Obtuse and/or insufferable work better.   :chairbang:

Hmmm...
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 03:06:15 pm
Hey...YOU'RE the one who said the most important issue was the economy.  Not me.

The phrase rings loud to the 93+ million Americans no longer in the workforce...whether retired or stuck living in an underground economy.

And if somebody who built a nest of $10 BILLION told me he could do it...I'd listen.

My issue with the slogan is more of a general issue with the way we perceive candidates or the way that candidates want to be perceived these days.

I take issue with this idea that this candidate or that candidate will, by the sheer weight of their magnificence, bring the country back around to that fabled time in our history when things were better and everything was perfect. Or in the case of the Democrats, build a better nation than has ever existed before.

Either thought is frightening.

Their campaign slogan may as well be "Elect me, I know where the unicorns hide."

I remember Reagan reminding us that the problems that needed to be fixed in this country could not be fixed by the government, because the government and those problems were one and the same.

Every time that I see a candidate tell me that, if elected, they're going to fix issues, all I see is bigger government ahead and all I hear is "I'm from the government, and I'm here to help."
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 03:11:14 pm
I take issue with this idea that this candidate or that candidate will, by the sheer weight of their magnificence, bring the country back around to that fabled time in our history when things were better and everything was perfect. Or in the case of the Democrats, build a better nation than has ever existed before.

Maybe we should start now by putting Trump on Mt. Rushmore.  I hear there's room.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 05, 2015, 03:45:09 pm
We're debating a campaign slogan on a baseball cap?  Really?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 03:47:07 pm
We're debating a campaign slogan on a baseball cap?  Really?

No why, you want to have one?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: alicewonders on August 05, 2015, 04:02:55 pm
Slogans have to be short and catchy - and not stir up any negative connotations.  For that reason, they have to be basically neutral and positive at the same time.  Think of "Hope and Change" and "It's Morning in America".

Would you prefer, "Let's put Americans to Work!"

It does address the economy - but unfortunately, to a great many Americans (too many) that slogan would not be a positive thing.

I see nothing wrong with Trump's slogan. 

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 05, 2015, 04:09:34 pm
Slogans have to be short and catchy - and not stir up any negative connotations.  For that reason, they have to be basically neutral and positive at the same time.  Think of "Hope and Change" and "It's Morning in America".

Would you prefer, "Let's put Americans to Work!"

It does address the economy - but unfortunately, to a great many Americans (too many) that slogan would not be a positive thing.

I see nothing wrong with Trump's slogan.

I don't see anything wrong with it either it just didn't address the point I was making (in my opinion) but since that ended up going all ad-hominem it's not really that important. 
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: libertybele on August 05, 2015, 08:16:44 pm
We're debating a campaign slogan on a baseball cap?  Really?

Exactly.  Who cares about Trump's slogan??  Like him or not, the fact of the matter is he is polling double digits.  Tomorrow night is the debates and a lot of people are going to be tuning in to watch "The Donald".
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 05, 2015, 08:43:14 pm
Just FYI, to appeal to the independents Trump needs to come up with good reasons to believe he can improve the economy. 

Not at all. The only thing he needs to accomplish is to have the voters think he is more likely to do it than the other knuckleheads and he has already accomplished that
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: flowers on August 05, 2015, 08:50:19 pm
it was hilarious what Trump did with his phone number after Gawker released it to the world...... :silly:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 09:29:25 pm
We're debating a campaign slogan on a baseball cap?  Really?

Sorry about that, Lando!  I should know better.

He's like an ankle biting terrier....but cute at the same time.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 05, 2015, 09:34:53 pm
Sorry about that, Lando!  I should know better.

He's like an ankle biting terrier....but cute at the same time.   :laugh:

 :nometalk:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 09:40:55 pm
Trump 2016

I'm all in!

 :patriot:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 05, 2015, 10:03:17 pm
Trump 2016

I'm all in!

 :patriot:

For some reason which I cannot express here.....I DON'T BELIEVE YOU!    :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 05, 2015, 10:05:55 pm
Trump 2016

I'm all in!

 :patriot:

I'm lost in the wilderness now. 
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 05, 2015, 11:03:46 pm
I'm lost in the wilderness now.

I'm all in.

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 05, 2015, 11:57:04 pm
Here's a great article/essay that further explains why Donald Trump could win...even as a 3rd party candidate.

http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/hard_truth_for_the_gop_from_its_base.html (http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/hard_truth_for_the_gop_from_its_base.html)   posted in Opinion Category.

Excellent take on why Trump is thumping the rest of the field.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 06, 2015, 12:10:36 am
Yep. Page one out of the trump play book
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Fishrrman on August 06, 2015, 01:27:17 am
DCPatriot wrote above:
[[ Here's a great article/essay that further explains why Donald Trump could win...even as a 3rd party candidate.
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/08/hard_truth_for_the_gop_from_its_base.html  ]]


That is indeed an excellent piece and is must reading for GOPB'ers.

I brought up the reader comments and this was the first (emphasis added by me):
======
Schmutzli • 19 hours ago
The illegal invasion is forever changing the USA. When 20% of Mexico has migrated, plus millions more from Central America, the USA is getting closer to being a Latin American country than the country founded by the European Colonists.

Even more critical is that 2016 is the last election in which the Republicans, if they win and if they seal the border, begin mass deportations, and nullify anchor babies, welfare benefits, education, and healthcare for illegals, have any future possibility of remaining a viable political party.

The marxØcrats are following up on LBJ's (not so) Great Society, which made blacks dependent permanent marxØcrat voters, now obviously doing the same with Latino's. How stupid are the Republicans not to see they are basically one state (TX, VA, FL) being flipped to the the marxØcrats by Latino voters away from never being able to gain an electoral college majority?

The invasion must not only be stopped, it must be reversed. If there is any type of amnesty, those people who do not vote fraudulently in 2016 will definitely be voting in 2020. And they will not be voting for a Conservative.

I guess a party too stupid to act to preserve itself deserves to become insignificant, but it is the highest form of betrayal that it takes the entire country with it.
======
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Fishrrman on August 06, 2015, 01:35:07 am
bkepley wrote:
[[ Maybe we should start now by putting Trump on Mt. Rushmore.  I hear there's room. ]]

No need for that.

Trump will construct his own mountain, and he'll make it higher than Rushmore...  :)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 01:50:39 am
(http://i203.photobucket.com/albums/aa32/blue3711/donald_trump_president_cartoon-500_zps8rvndtip.gif)

Trump 2016!

 :patriot:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 06, 2015, 01:56:03 am
Politics as theater, Luis?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 02:14:39 am
Politics as theater, Luis?

Guess he feels that if reasoned debate can't change minds, then a strategy of mockery fits the bill.    :shrug:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 06, 2015, 02:28:53 am
bkepley wrote:
[[ Maybe we should start now by putting Trump on Mt. Rushmore.  I hear there's room. ]]

No need for that.

Trump will construct his own mountain, and he'll make it higher than Rushmore...  :)

Yes, it will be HUGE!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 02:45:42 am
Guess he feels that if reasoned debate can't change minds, then a strategy of mockery fits the bill.    :shrug:

Nope.

You're wrong.

I'm all on board the Trump for President bandwagon.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 02:55:28 am
Politics as theater, Luis?

Or maybe theater as politics.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Oceander on August 06, 2015, 02:59:16 am
Trump/Hillary for 2016. 
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 06, 2015, 07:07:28 am
Or maybe theater as politics.

 :beer:

Ahh! Theater of the Absurd.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Formerly Once-Ler on August 06, 2015, 07:29:08 am
Trump/Hillary for 2016.
Stay out of Fort Marcy Park, Mr. Trump!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Formerly Once-Ler on August 06, 2015, 08:25:10 am
I'm all in.
(http://i.imgur.com/i1qjjYo.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/yUbEiod.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/Ar9pwgb.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/KShRdoT.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/ixHq6Pg.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/OlhLlU6.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/oFvVcVn.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/M3uBDr6.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/R6cpfhh.jpg)
(http://i.imgur.com/oLMVOjL.jpg)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 06, 2015, 11:11:55 am
Good set of pics O-L! 

A leaf blower is all that is needed to keep "T" in line.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 06, 2015, 11:17:04 am
So, apparently the only thing wrong with Trump is he needs a better doo.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 06, 2015, 11:37:15 am
This will be quite an event, won't it?  Fox News must be elated and I completely believe they will be fair, or they will make very effort to be, at least. 

Someone will emerge from tonite as the solid #2.  Watch for Jeb or Rubio to score.  Perhaps Walker.  Cruz?  I just don't know about him.  He has become a polarized, even caricaturized figure, it seems to me.  This has become, after all, a Prom King selection type process.  He and Paul will be most willing to cross sabers with Trump in this first round.  Kasich will get hometown cheers but tread water, at best.  Carson will quietly be there.

Any interest in Round #1?  Perry and Jindal will have best chance to leapfrog to next tier, I think.  Fiorina?  Maybe, but I doubt it.

My money for the "Winner" tonite?  Rubio.  His comforting message delivery will do it.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 06, 2015, 11:39:59 am
So, apparently the only thing wrong with Trump is he needs a better doo.

We are, after all, a shallow lot!  Here's what I think...

Oh wait, my horoscope just popped up on my cell phone...
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 12:09:57 pm
Guess he feels that if reasoned debate can't change minds, then a strategy of mockery fits the bill.    :shrug:

You're saying that what Trump has been doing (to this point) has been  "reasoned debate"?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 12:14:56 pm
Good set of pics O-L! 

A leaf blower is all that is needed to keep "T" in line.

LOL!  Was choking on my coffee.

Gee, maybe placing a high energy fan next to him is that 'secret weapon' Meghan Kelley was speaking about?
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 12:16:24 pm
You're saying that what Trump has been doing (to this point) has been  "reasoned debate"?

Nope...not even close.   LOL!   I don't know what you could call it, except an incredible ability to keep attention on him.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 12:17:13 pm
We are, after all, a shallow lot!  Here's what I think...

Oh wait, my horoscope just popped up on my cell phone...

 :beer:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 12:22:16 pm
Quote
If that's POTUSability then Bruce/Caitlyn Jenner and the Kardashian bunch should run.

I'm all in for Trump 2016.

 :patriot:

You know, that's not such a bad idea, Bruce Jenner running.

We know he's Republican and think of the economical aspect of his Presidency.

He'd be both POTUS and FLOTUS!

One less Secret Service detail, dinner for one on State trips abroad...
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 12:23:11 pm
(http://i.imgur.com/TV18diE.jpg)
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 06, 2015, 12:38:31 pm
(http://i.imgur.com/TV18diE.jpg)

Now THAT'S comedy!

I am thinking about Trump and his amazing ability to leverage pure audacity into political support.  He seems to be all about the deal, and he is seeking to make a deal with conservatives, to wit: regardless of who I have been and what I have stood for in the past, you help me become POTUS and I will be a champion for the causes you most deeply care about.  To conservatives, this is enough.  But to the Donald I fear it is going to be just another deal.  So it behooves us to take a look at past deals the man has made and ask ourselves if he can be trusted. 

The truth about Trump is that he is a very rich man with too many poor widows who lost their pensions in his wake.  He has a lot in common with Bill Clinton in that there always seems to be a lot of bad shit going on around him, and when the shit hits the fan everyone gets soiled but him.  Doing business with Trump is like swallowing a diamond that can think for itself.  At some point all you end up with is a pile of crap, but the diamond is perfectly fine.  It walks away and finds someone else to swallow it.  That both inspires me and worries me.  But mostly it worries me.

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 12:49:12 pm
Now THAT'S comedy!

I am thinking about Trump and his amazing ability to leverage pure audacity into political support.  He seems to be all about the deal, and he is seeking to make a deal with conservatives, to wit: regardless of who I have been and what I have stood for in the past, you help me become POTUS and I will be a champion for the causes you most deeply care about.  To conservatives, this is enough.  But to the Donald I fear it is going to be just another deal.  So it behooves us to take a look at past deals the man has made and ask ourselves if he can be trusted. 

The truth about Trump is that he is a very rich man with too many poor widows who lost their pensions in his wake.  He has a lot in common with Bill Clinton in that there always seems to be a lot of bad shit going on around him, and when the shit hits the fan everyone gets soiled but him.  That both inspires me and worries me.  But mostly it worries me.

And yet, it could be (hopefully) that he's just as upset as we are...what has happened to our economy and what a disaster Progressive Socialists have done to us since 2009.

I'm sure you know EXACTLY how to put the economy back on track.  That's a sincere statement absent any sarcasm, Victor.  Many of us do.

We have been sitting slack-jawed wondering how the GOP leadership has allowed Obama to get this far.  They MUST know that their refusal to take steps against Obama appears like collusion over time.

Donald Trump has the notoriety and the $$$...and the background to put a stop...or the very least, slow this degradation down.

He's playing the media splendidly.  Which is what none of the others are able to do.   

We live in a celebrity culture and Trump is masterful at the game.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: massadvj on August 06, 2015, 01:00:20 pm
And yet, it could be (hopefully) that he's just as upset as we are...what has happened to our economy and what a disaster Progressive Socialists have done to us since 2009.

I'm sure you know EXACTLY how to put the economy back on track.  That's a sincere statement absent any sarcasm, Victor.  Many of us do.

We have been sitting slack-jawed wondering how the GOP leadership has allowed Obama to get this far.  They MUST know that their refusal to take steps against Obama appears like collusion over time.

Donald Trump has the notoriety and the $$$...and the background to put a stop...or the very least, slow this degradation down.

He's playing the media splendidly.  Which is what none of the others are able to do.   

We live in a celebrity culture and Trump is masterful at the game.

I agree with all of this (especially the part about my being able to solve the country's fiscal problems).  How about we elect Trump and then he puts me in charge?

Seriously, I have gone from appalled at the notion of Trump as POTUS to skeptical but not closed to the prospect.  I think I am typical of most Republicans at this stage of the game.  If so, it means Trump has overcome a huge hurdle, perhaps the biggest one he will face in this quest of his.  We'll see how he handles it when "The Empire Strikes Back."   And strike it will, when the timing is right and public opinion is consequential.  But don't get me wrong.  I am not rooting for him to lose.  I am just not yet rooting for him to win.

Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Lando Lincoln on August 06, 2015, 01:14:52 pm

He's playing the media splendidly.  Which is what none of the others are able to do.   

We live in a celebrity culture and Trump is masterful at the game.

Actually, the media don't know what the hell to do with him.  The serious pundits don't know what the hell to say about him. Most on stage tonight won't know how the hell to react to him.  His brand resonates because so many don't know what the hell else will work.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 01:16:47 pm
I agree with all of this (especially the part about my being able to solve the country's fiscal problems).  How about we elect Trump and then he puts me in charge?

Seriously, I have gone from appalled at the notion of Trump as POTUS to skeptical but not closed to the prospect.  I think I am typical of most Republicans at this stage of the game.  If so, it means Trump has overcome a huge hurdle, perhaps the biggest one he will face in this quest of his.  We'll see how he handles it when "The Empire Strikes Back."   And strike it will, when the timing is right and public opinion is consequential.  But don't get me wrong.  I am not rooting for him to lose.  I am just not yet rooting for him to win.

Absolutely right.   There's a scandal in there somewhere than the media will drag out at the proper time.

The media makes heroes and then takes delight in knocking them down.

And my feelings are yours right now regarding "rooting".   :patriot:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 01:22:03 pm
Actually, the media don't know what the hell to do with him.  The serious pundits don't know what the hell to say about him. Most on stage tonight won't know how the hell to react to him.  His brand resonates because so many don't know what the hell else will work.

Yep...it's like the media are actually fearful of being on the receiving end of a Trump insult.

George Will comes to mind, when late in Reagan's 2nd term, he referred to GHWB as a "lap dog" for Ronald Reagan.  After Bush Sr. won, Will became a persona non grata to the administration.  And George Will has an insufferable ego.  It 'killed' him that he was never invited to the White House or any of its State dinners, etc..
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 01:31:55 pm
Republicans View Rubio, Walker Most Positively on Debate Eve

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184499/republicans-view-rubio-walker-positively-debate-eve.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/184499/republicans-view-rubio-walker-positively-debate-eve.aspx)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My 1st choice!   Only mine is Walker/Rubio.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Bigun on August 06, 2015, 01:50:40 pm
Republicans View Rubio, Walker Most Positively on Debate Eve

http://www.gallup.com/poll/184499/republicans-view-rubio-walker-positively-debate-eve.aspx (http://www.gallup.com/poll/184499/republicans-view-rubio-walker-positively-debate-eve.aspx)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My 1st choice!   Only mine is Walker/Rubio.

I can live with that and Ted Cruz for AG until the first SCOTUS slot comes open!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: xfreeper on August 06, 2015, 02:53:58 pm
Absolutely right.   There's a scandal in there somewhere than the media will drag out at the proper time.

The media makes heroes and then takes delight in knocking them down.


Trump has the same dynamic working for him here that he does with the pols. The public hates the media almost as much as the pols. It's getting to the point where the voters don't care what the pols say about trump. We'll see if he gets to the same point with the media. Once the media senses they are becoming irrelevant, they will switch tactics, even if it means jumping on the trump bandwagon
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: aligncare on August 06, 2015, 03:15:54 pm
Ha, President Trump. Like the ending scene in an episode of Twilight Zone as the camera pulls back to reveal it's Donald Trump sitting in the Oval Office.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Fishrrman on August 06, 2015, 03:45:52 pm
mass wrote above:
[[ I am not rooting for him to lose.  I am just not yet rooting for him to win. ]]

That's my take, as well.
I'll vote for Walker in the primary, unless something very consequential intervenes between now and then.

I'm probably the only person in the forum who won't watch the debate tonight.
I just don't care for them.

Besides, I'll get a better take just by reading the posts here!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 06, 2015, 03:52:09 pm
mass wrote above:
[[ I am not rooting for him to lose.  I am just not yet rooting for him to win. ]]

That's my take, as well.
I'll vote for Walker in the primary, unless something very consequential intervenes between now and then.

I'm probably the only person in the forum who won't watch the debate tonight.
I just don't care for them.

Besides, I'll get a better take just by reading the posts here!

Funny, I never watch the debates either except the presidential debates but I gotta watch this one.   :laugh:
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: bkepley on August 06, 2015, 03:58:40 pm
mass wrote above:
[[ I am not rooting for him to lose.  I am just not yet rooting for him to win. ]]

That's my take, as well.
I'll vote for Walker in the primary, unless something very consequential intervenes between now and then.

I'm probably the only person in the forum who won't watch the debate tonight.
I just don't care for them.

Besides, I'll get a better take just by reading the posts here!

I was thinking it would be a big hit, even with folks who don't vote but when I brought it up in the lunch room everyone new about it but it doesn't seem many are really interested.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: musiclady on August 06, 2015, 05:39:37 pm
Ha, President Trump. Like the ending scene in an episode of Twilight Zone as the camera pulls back to reveal it's Donald Trump sitting in the Oval Office.

Some people might compare it to the Willoughby Funeral Home episode...........   8888forgot
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 07:34:31 pm
I can live with that and Ted Cruz for AG until the first SCOTUS slot comes open!

Hey... it's a poll, and polls are routinely manipulated you know.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Bigun on August 06, 2015, 08:00:16 pm
Hey... it's a poll, and polls are routinely manipulated you know.

If you were to go back and read what I posted V E R Y  S L O W L Y you might discover that I was responding to the opinion expressed by the poster of what I responded to and not any poll!

The poll isn't worth a bucket of warm spit IMHO!
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: Luis Gonzalez on August 06, 2015, 08:04:37 pm
If you were to go back and read what I posted V E R Y  S L O W L Y you might discover that I was responding to the opinion expressed by the poster of what I responded to and not any poll!

The poll isn't worth a bucket of warm spit IMHO!

I read it slowly.

I was just making sure everyone knew the truth about polls.
Title: Re: Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why...By Chris Cillizza
Post by: DCPatriot on August 06, 2015, 08:10:38 pm
I read it slowly.

I was just making sure everyone knew the truth about polls.

(http://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/11855902_10100870654758171_248756926763929694_n.jpg?oh=522b50f121eed4c1a13ccfc8b974ab6d&oe=563CEADD)

 :laugh: