The Briefing Room

General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: Suppressed on August 21, 2016, 08:45:09 pm

Title: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Suppressed on August 21, 2016, 08:45:09 pm
Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has surged to a 5-point lead over democratic [sic] rival Hillary Clinton in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania as per a latest poll.

Posted: Aug 21, 2016 11:08 AM EDT

http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

... conducted by CEPEX Center for Excellence in Project Execution, on Friday (19th Aug 2016).

Trump leads Clinton 41.9 percent to 36.5 percent, with 21.5 percent voters [of] undecided. Trump’s lead is just inside the margin of error ...

The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. . . .

[Excerpted. More at link.]
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: flowers on August 21, 2016, 08:51:52 pm
http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

Quote
“One of the reasons of Trump’s surge is attributable to seemingly strong support from the women” added Mukherjee.

Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: LadyLiberty on August 21, 2016, 09:16:42 pm
Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   :shrug:
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: HonestJohn on August 21, 2016, 09:44:12 pm
Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   :shrug:

Talk about a transparent lie by the Trump side.

---

Actually, the poll is true.  Believe me.  Pennsylvania Trump supporters can now relax.  No need to make an effort to get out and vote.  Stay home and watch Duck Dynasty instead. 

You know you want to.

Honest.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: TomSea on August 21, 2016, 09:45:06 pm
Good news, I saw an article too that Connecticut's economy might give the GOP nominee a chance.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Frank Cannon on August 21, 2016, 09:48:42 pm
The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters.

Great poll.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: ABX on August 21, 2016, 10:03:51 pm
Hmm, a poll by CEPEX -- a company that provides services to the oil and gas industry in Alberta Canada?  They have decided to conduct a poll, and it's the first poll they've ever done.  And it happens to be on the US Presidential poll in PA.  I call that really odd.   :shrug:

I noticed that too, and did verify they are referring to the Center for Excellence in Project Execution.  Same entity.

http://www.projectexecution.consulting/cepexpoll/

They actually just started a polling and analysis division. As they have no  history to look back on in this field, we really won't know how accurate this is until the election.

What's more interesting, their website was just registered a couple of months ago (parent website, not the new polling part).
https://www.instra.com/en/whois/whois-result/projectexecution_consulting

Their LinkedIn profile just shows 1-10 employees. Their LinkedIn also only shows 31 followers which is nothing. (I'm a nobody and I have several thousand LinkedIn followers, even my wife's private piano studio has more followers).
https://www.linkedin.com/company/10622206?trk=tyah&trkInfo=clickedVertical%3Acompany%2CclickedEntityId%3A10622206%2Cidx%3A2-1-2%2CtarId%3A1462824792229%2Ctas%3Acenter%20for%20excellence%20in%20project%20exe

Their business address shows dozens of other companies registered to it, not just the office building but with the same office number too. It appears the address they have listed may be just a universal business registration address (like a mailing service).
http://www.bing.com/search?q=3553+31+STREET+NORTHWEST+Calgary%2C+Alberta+&form=SL5JDF&pc=SL5J

It always is a head scratcher when you see polls from sources you've never heard of before. Not only in questioning if it is legitimate, but how those who are citing the poll found out about it in the first place.



Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: ABX on August 21, 2016, 10:10:56 pm
The other odd thing about this is it is a CBS station out of San Diego, California reporting on a Pennsylvania poll (from an unknown source). But the bottom of the page gives a clue what's going on.

Quote
This article was originally distributed via Newswire.com. Newswire.com, Frankly and this Site make no warranties or representations in connection therewith. If you are affiliated with this page and would like it removed please contact pressreleases@franklyinc.com

The CMS for CBS8's website just pulls press releases from Newswire.com to keep their site fed with releases. Checking Newswire.com, anyone can submit a news release to it. It isn't a vetted news article or poll. This explains how this unknown polling company hit a CBS news site's webpage.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: sinkspur on August 21, 2016, 10:16:18 pm
BWAAAHAAAHAAAA!!!!

Quote
The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
]

A 7.1 percent margin of error is the sign of a worthless poll.  This outfit is just guessing as to the results.  There are no demographics given, so we don't know the Dem, GOP, Indie breakdown.

And this is simply not believable:

Quote
“One of the reasons of Trump’s surge is attributable to seemingly strong support from the women” added Mukherjee.

The latest Suffolk poll gives Hillary a 20 point lead among women.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Longmire on August 21, 2016, 10:18:12 pm
LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Gov Bean Counter on August 21, 2016, 10:20:02 pm
"The survey contacted around 1,000 registered voters. Results are estimated to be accurate within 7.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

The only way Trump gets those numbers is if the sample was pulled from TOS.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: geronl on August 21, 2016, 10:40:44 pm
7.1% makes it so inaccurate as to not pay attention to
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: musiclady on August 21, 2016, 10:56:51 pm


The latest Suffolk poll gives Hillary a 20 point lead among women.

And what has Trump done lately to improve his horrid numbers among women??

Has he suddenly stopped being a misogynist??

I don't THINK so.

Anything showing growth among women has got to be a fabrication.  He is despised by most women, and rightfully so.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Vulcan on August 21, 2016, 11:00:49 pm
7.1% makes it so inaccurate as to not pay attention to

The orange liberal idiot has been trailing the beast in PA by double digits.  And we're supposed to believe he's suddenly ahead post his disastrous past 3 weeks?   

Only a moron would believe this poll.

Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: sinkspur on August 21, 2016, 11:03:20 pm
LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%

A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html?_r=0
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: SirLinksALot on August 22, 2016, 01:05:54 am
From CBS!!??

Penn us hurting and bleeding jobs. If the perception is foreigners are taking jobs away, Trump's message is resonating, it will eventually as people pay attention the closer we are to November
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: ABX on August 22, 2016, 01:10:58 am
See notes on this thread:
http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,221543.0.html

This is pretty questionable. The story is just from an auto-feed free news release service, not actually by CBS.
The polling company never ran a poll before, they just started business and set up their website just a couple of months ago.
They are based out of Canada using an address shared by dozens of other companies (probably a mailing service).
They don't list methodology data, something normal with legitimate polls.
They have more than a 7% margin of error, well outside legitimate polling parameters.
Other than the automated free news release service, it doesn't appear this is being picked up officially by any wire.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Oceander on August 22, 2016, 01:15:07 am
Quote
Trump’s lead is just inside the margin of error

In other words, Trump is not leading Clinton.  That is what margin of error means.

More stupidity and wishful thinking from Trump-lickers.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Longmire on August 22, 2016, 01:30:08 am
A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Seems to Have a Problem

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/upshot/a-favorable-poll-for-donald-trump-has-a-major-problem.html?_r=0

The dweeb who wrote that piece doesn't look old enough to have voted in 2012, much less provide insight/analysis on how that cycle's voting habits compare to this one. I'll trust the folks at USC instead, thank you.

He does wear 'smart' glasses tho... :laugh:

Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Oceander on August 22, 2016, 01:31:59 am
LA Times Daily Tracker Aug 21: Trump 45% Clinton 43%

/snicker

(http://i758.photobucket.com/albums/xx221/B_Oceander/Political/trump-licker01a.png)

Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: sinkspur on August 22, 2016, 01:44:05 am
The dweeb who wrote that piece doesn't look old enough to have voted in 2012, much less provide insight/analysis on how that cycle's voting habits compare to this one. I'll trust the folks at USC instead, thank you.

He does wear 'smart' glasses tho... :laugh:

The "dweeb who wrote that piece" knows  more about polling and analyzing polls than you know about why you support Trump.

http://www.politico.com/media/story/2015/01/meet-nate-cohn-new-york-times-new-young-gun-on-data-003282
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Fishrrman on August 22, 2016, 01:55:54 am
TomSea wrote:
"Good news, I saw an article too that Connecticut's economy might give the GOP nominee a chance."

Connecticut?
Economy?
What's left of it is more like it. Even GE is moving out...

Fairfield county, commuter country, still seems to be doing ok.

Trump probaby has a better chance here than any of the other candidates would have.
That's not saying he'll win.
It IS saying he'll win a larger share of the total vote.
Cruz would have gone nowhere here.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: mystery-ak on August 22, 2016, 02:19:08 am
I saw this poll earlier and didn't post it because of the 7.1 percent margin of error...worthless
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: sinkspur on August 22, 2016, 02:21:05 am
Trump leads Clinton in Connecticut by 7.5 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ct/connecticut_trump_vs_clinton-5720.html
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Longmire on August 22, 2016, 02:51:36 am
The "dweeb who wrote that piece" knows  more about polling and analyzing polls than you know about why you support Trump.

And yet Cohn's complete "analysis" of the LA Times poll is that its skewed because it weights 2012 voters and according to him 2012 Romney voters are more likely to report they voted for Obama four years later. No data to back that supposition up, and no checking in with the USC research team for validation either.

He admits its a different methodology, but it must be flawed because he doesn't understand it.  :shrug:



Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: sinkspur on August 22, 2016, 03:06:09 am
And yet Cohn's complete "analysis" of the LA Times poll is that its skewed because it weights 2012 voters and according to him 2012 Romney voters are more likely to report they voted for Obama four years later. No data to back that supposition up, and no checking in with the USC research team for validation either.

He admits its a different methodology, but it must be flawed because he doesn't understand it.  :shrug:

When a poll is an outlier, it ought to be questioned.  This LA Times poll has had Trump leading for six months. 

That's way outside the polling norm.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Emjay on August 22, 2016, 03:50:02 am
http://www.cbs8.com/story/32806609/trump-leads-clinton-by-5-points-in-the-key-battleground-state-of-pennsylvania

It's beneath even a Trump supporter to cite a poll this flawed.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: geronl on August 22, 2016, 03:52:16 am
I read those before. Excellent research on your part and I thank you.  :beer:

@AbaraXas is really good at that. When I first started posting seriously early this year, he was so helpful I thought he was like Clippy.

(http://thevarsity.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Clippy1.jpg)
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: ABX on August 22, 2016, 03:58:43 am
@AbaraXas is really good at that. When I first started posting seriously early this year, he was so helpful I thought he was like Clippy.

(http://thevarsity.ca/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/Clippy1.jpg)

It is all in my memoirs.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51t7MLGcS1L.jpg)
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: geronl on August 22, 2016, 04:00:35 am
TomSea wrote:
"Good news, I saw an article too that Connecticut's economy might give the GOP nominee a chance."

Trump probaby has a better chance here than any of the other candidates would have.
That's not saying he'll win.
It IS saying he'll win a larger share of the total vote.
Cruz would have gone nowhere here.

Trump will get the same number of electoral votes from Connecticut as Cruz would have gotten: NONE. Trump spending his time and money and effort to woo that state is ridiculous and wasteful.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: geronl on August 22, 2016, 04:01:51 am
It is all in my memoirs.

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51t7MLGcS1L.jpg)

I kind of thought that would end up being posted, lol.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: NavyCanDo on August 22, 2016, 04:09:52 am
(http://i1123.photobucket.com/albums/l545/Baseballdad2/Other/polls%20for%20dummies.png)

Hunting for and picking a favorable poll to make a point  is a path to certain failure.

Real Clear Politics, is showing a much different story - using several highly watched polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Victoria33 on August 22, 2016, 04:32:49 am
BWAAAHAAAHAAAA!!!!
]
@sinkspur

Let's see what the usual poll takers come up with in Penn. before taking this poll seriously.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Longmire on August 22, 2016, 04:33:54 am
This LA Times poll has had Trump leading for six months. 

That's not true at all.

The LA Times tracker poll has had Clinton in front for the last three weeks with Trump closing the gap in the just last few days.

Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: Frank Cannon on August 22, 2016, 04:42:08 am
@sinkspur

Let's see what the usual poll takers come up with in Penn. before taking this poll seriously.

The real pollsters in PA have her up 10.
Title: Re: Trump Leads Clinton by 5+ Points in the Key Battleground State of Pennsylvania
Post by: ConstitutionRose on August 22, 2016, 10:13:48 am
(http://i1123.photobucket.com/albums/l545/Baseballdad2/Other/polls%20for%20dummies.png)

Hunting for and picking a favorable poll to make a point  is a path to certain failure.

Real Clear Politics, is showing a much different story - using several highly watched polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

The info at that link is something  no Trump supporter wants to see.