The Briefing Room

General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 28, 2019, 10:25:34 pm

Title: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 28, 2019, 10:25:34 pm
Quote
China might “weaponize” its dominance of rare earth metals in an escalation of the trade war with the U.S., a state-controlled Chinese tabloid reported Tuesday.
Update: The Financial Times and others have confirmed the threat from China’s powerful state planner.

“China’s powerful planning body has threatened to use rare earths exports as leverage in the trade war with the US, in a sign of increasing tensions between the two powers,” the Financial Times reported.

Just over a week after a visit to a rare earths facility by Chinese leader Xi Jinping prompted speculation that China could attempt to use its near monopoly as leverage in the ongoing trade dispute, the Chinese nationalist Global Times reported that a statement made Tuesday by a government official “sends an implicit signal that China does not hesitate using rare earths as a weapon against the US amid the escalating trade war and US containment of Huawei.”

“If any country wants to use products made of China’s rare earth exports to contain China’s development, the Chinese people would not be happy with that,”  a spokesperson from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, said, according to the Global Times.

The report describes “scaling down” rare-earth exports to the U.S. as a “smart hit” to the U.S. economy, citing a so-called independent analyst named Wu Chenhui. U.S. companies depend on rare earths for a variety of consumer goods and military equipment, including cell phones, automobiles, and guided missiles. China controls 96 percent of global production of rare earths.

“It could inflict substantial damage on the US military and tech industry, as rare earths are a key material in manufacturing chips, radar, fiber optics, night vision goggles, missile guiding systems, and tank armor,” Wu tells the Global Times. “Just name a few big name US companies like Apple, Qualcomm and Raytheon… they could suffer a lot from the countermeasures.”

American Elements chief executive Michael Silver last week explained on CNBC that one way China could weaponize rare earths against the U.S. would be to “charge a much lower price within China than they price they are charging outside of China.” That would penalize companies that manufacture outside of China and discourage companies from moving production due to higher U.S. tariffs.

Silver points out that China did this in the past but was stopped by the World Trade Organization. He thinks China could be tempted to leave the WTO in the future and implement the discriminatory pricing once again.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/05/28/weaponize-rare-earth/ (https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/05/28/weaponize-rare-earth/)
WW2 was begun by Japan and Germany over access to scarce resources.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 28, 2019, 11:22:11 pm
Some of the 'rare earth elements' and what they are used for.

What are 'rare earths' used for?
"Rare earths" are a group of 17 chemically similar elements crucial to the manufacture of many hi-tech products. Despite their name, most are abundant in nature but are hazardous to extract. Most "rare earth" elements have uses in several different fields, as well as those listed below.
Neodymium
This is used to make powerful magnets used in loudspeakers and computer hard drives to enable them to be smaller and more efficient. Magnets containing neodymium are also used in green technologies such as the manufacture of wind turbines and hybrid cars.
Lanthanum
This element is used in camera and telescope lenses. Compounds containing lanthanum are used extensively in carbon lighting applications, such as studio lighting and cinema projection.
Cerium
Used in catalytic converters in cars, enabling them to run at high temperatures and playing a crucial role in the chemical reactions in the converter. Lanthanum and cerium are also used in the process of refining crude oil.
Praseodymium
Used to create strong metals for use in aircraft engines. Praseodymium is also a component of a special sort of glass, used to make visors to protect welders and glassmakers.
Gadolinium
Used in X-ray and MRI scanning systems, and also in television screens. Research is also being done into its possible use in developing more efficient refrigeration systems.
Yttrium, terbium, europium
Important in making televisions and computer screens and other devices that have visual displays as they are used in making materials that give off different colours. Europium is also used in making control rods in nuclear reactors.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-17357863 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-17357863)
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Fishrrman on May 29, 2019, 12:10:20 am
We had better start scouting around for sources other than China for these things.

I'm wondering how much of this stuff may be recoverable on the North American continent... IF we have the will to locate it and then MINE and process it once found...?
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Free Vulcan on May 29, 2019, 12:40:56 am
They could kneecap us pretty good if they followed thru.

I'm suprised they pulled this card. Can't always tell if they are scared or cocky, but the fact that they did is ominous.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 29, 2019, 02:19:38 am
The elements themselves are quite common. It’s just the concentrations that make them economical to mine that are rare. There is a potential to extract them from mining spoils, but it would take time to ramp up the capability.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Drago on May 29, 2019, 06:09:42 am
Japan discovered a huge cache of "rare earths" off their coast just last month:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-rare-earths-huge-deposit-of-metals-found-in-pacific.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/12/japan-rare-earths-huge-deposit-of-metals-found-in-pacific.html)

https://www.sciencealert.com/japan-just-found-a-semi-infinite-deposit-of-rare-earth-minerals (https://www.sciencealert.com/japan-just-found-a-semi-infinite-deposit-of-rare-earth-minerals)

Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: thackney on May 29, 2019, 12:13:55 pm
Alaska remains a potential source for critical rare earth elements as trade dispute with China escalates
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2018/08/03/alaska-remains-a-potential-source-for-critical-rare-earth-elements-as-trade-dispute-with-china-escalates/ (https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2018/08/03/alaska-remains-a-potential-source-for-critical-rare-earth-elements-as-trade-dispute-with-china-escalates/)

Rare earth elements really aren't that rare; they're just rarely mined.

Many in Washington, D.C., particularly those in the Defense Department, see this as a major looming issue....

...As seems to be the case with most mineral commodities, Alaska holds its own rare earth resources.

The most notable deposit is the Bokan Mountain prospect that Nova Scotia-based Ucore Rare Metals Inc. explored until 2015. The prospect on southern Prince of Wales Island is approximately 40 percent heavy rare earths, according to Ucore, which are the hardest to come by. Overall, it holds roughly 5 million tons of ore with rare earth concentrations of 0.65 percent, according to the company.

Kreiner said rare earths occur across the state but the viability of mining them other places is largely unknown simply because they haven't been explored.

"Bokan Mountain is the only quote-unquote deposit in Alaska. So whether it's a deposit or an occurrence is really an economic definition. Basically, it becomes a deposit when it's concentrated to the point that it can be extracted," he said....

- - - - - - - - - - - -

Alaska's rare earth deposits and resource potential
https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044949 (https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044949)

Alaska’s known mineral endowment includes some of the largest and highest grade deposits of various metals, including gold, copper and zinc. Recently, Alaska has also been active in the worldwide search for sources of rare earth elements (REE) to replace exports now being limited by China. Driven by limited supply of the rare earths, combined with their increasing use in new ‘green’ energy, lighting, transportation, and many other technological applications, the rare earth metals neodymium, europium and, in particular, the heavy rare earth elements terbium, dysprosium and yttrium are forecast to soon be in critical short supply (U.S. Department of Energy, 2010).....

Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: bigheadfred on May 29, 2019, 12:26:17 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/rare-earth-afghanistan-sits-1-trillion-minerals-n196861 (https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/rare-earth-afghanistan-sits-1-trillion-minerals-n196861)
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 29, 2019, 12:57:03 pm
The elements themselves are quite common. It’s just the concentrations that make them economical to mine that are rare. There is a potential to extract them from mining spoils, but it would take time to ramp up the capability.
From what I understand, they are not mined specifically, but are found when mining other resources as they are separated.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: rustynail on May 29, 2019, 01:01:08 pm
"Alaska's rare earth deposits and resource potential",  Will be blocked by a Federal Judge?
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: jmyrlefuller on May 29, 2019, 02:57:04 pm
We had better start scouting around for sources other than China for these things.

I'm wondering how much of this stuff may be recoverable on the North American continent... IF we have the will to locate it and then MINE and process it once found...?
With as much electronic junk waste as there is out there, recycling has to be a viable option at this point.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: catfish1957 on May 29, 2019, 03:26:33 pm
This is the last scorched earth trump card that the Chicoms have.  (and to certain degree bond withdrawal)

Hopefully DJT and his economist are planning  emergency contingency plans as we speak

Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: catfish1957 on May 29, 2019, 03:30:22 pm
Hypotetical to the others on this thread.

(1) If we win this trade war does communism survive there?

(2) Does this thing escalate to a shooting war?

(3) Do we blink first and back down?
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: thackney on May 29, 2019, 03:51:02 pm
China and other parts of Southeast Asia dominate both the mining and processing of rare earths. The country accounted for 71% of the world’s rare earths mined last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Australia and the U.S. were distant runners up, together producing less than a third of China’s 120,000 metric tons. The U.S. relied on China for about four of every five tons of rare-earths imports between 2014 and 2017 and last year purchased $160 million-worth, up 17% from a year earlier. Outside of China, the world’s other large reserves of rare earths can be found in Brazil, Vietnam and Russia. A slump in prices in recent years has made opening up new sources unappealing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/rare-earths-the-us-china-trade-war-and-your-phone/2019/05/20/b4eabdc6-7b43-11e9-b1f3-b233fe5811ef_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/rare-earths-the-us-china-trade-war-and-your-phone/2019/05/20/b4eabdc6-7b43-11e9-b1f3-b233fe5811ef_story.html)
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 29, 2019, 04:07:32 pm
Hypotetical to the others on this thread.

(1) If we win this trade war does communism survive there?

(2) Does this thing escalate to a shooting war?

(3) Do we blink first and back down?


I’m not sure if communism really exists there anymore, except in name only. Seems like more of an authoritarian system with some capitalism allowed. Historically, trade wars often lead to hot wars. It does not mean this one will, but it has the potential. Mostly, that will be over regions of influence, specifically the South China Sea. Whether we ‘back down’ will be subjective.  This president likes to talk a big game, but I don’t think he is willing to begin a shooting war. The military action he has taken (against Syrian WMDs for example) has been fairly scaled down and not particularly effective. Whatever compromise is reached, it will naturally be the greatest thing ever done. If you took a good look at the USMCA, it’s not the great deal it’s reported to be.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: bigheadfred on May 30, 2019, 12:24:20 am
@thackney @edpc @IsailedawayfromFR  @Fishrrman  @catfish1957

Gee, golly, who didn't see this coming.

The over-regulated USA done did it to themselves. Way to go enviroweenies. China doesn't give a flying RA about environmental concerns.

The U.S. has more rare earths than China.

"China Ahead of the Rare Earths Curve

You might wonder how we could have been in this position in the first place. It has a lot to do with China being decades ahead of the global curve when it comes to understanding the strategic importance of rare earths.

Since the 1960's, China has placed great emphasis on research and development on improving efficiency to recover REMs. That increased the nation's competitive advantage over time and propelled China into the virtual sole provider of REMs of the world.

"The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earth."

Deng Xiaoping predicted in 1987 that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region would very likely be 'in the front ranks' of development. Deng was quoted as saying "中東有石油,中國有稀土." (The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earth) in a speech he made in January 1992 during his Southern Tour."

From this 2010 article: (there are older ones)

Seventeen Metals: “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earth”

https://www.businessinsider.com/seventeen-metals-the-middle-east-has-oil-china-has-rare-earth-2011-1 (https://www.businessinsider.com/seventeen-metals-the-middle-east-has-oil-china-has-rare-earth-2011-1)

Here is the problem. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY INFRASTRUCTURE TO MINE IN THE U.S. IT WILL TAKE YEARS TO GET IT GOING AFTER, IF EVER, THEY LET THEM MINE IT HERE.



Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: GtHawk on May 30, 2019, 02:34:04 am
It's odd but I know I recently read an article about there being high concentrations of REE in mine runoffs but all I can find now is this article from a year ago.

https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/acid-mine-drainage-yields-valuable-rare-earth-elements/article_79b85ed0-ea94-52e0-a7d3-dcc0e00227ae.html (https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/acid-mine-drainage-yields-valuable-rare-earth-elements/article_79b85ed0-ea94-52e0-a7d3-dcc0e00227ae.html)

Maybe China doesn't have as strong a hand as they think they do.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 03:51:21 am
It's odd but I know I recently read an article about there being high concentrations of REE in mine runoffs but all I can find now is this article from a year ago.

https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/acid-mine-drainage-yields-valuable-rare-earth-elements/article_79b85ed0-ea94-52e0-a7d3-dcc0e00227ae.html (https://www.wvnews.com/news/wvnews/acid-mine-drainage-yields-valuable-rare-earth-elements/article_79b85ed0-ea94-52e0-a7d3-dcc0e00227ae.html)

Maybe China doesn't have as strong a hand as they think they do.



Sure they do. The REEs might be here, in those spoil tips, but the methods and facilities don’t exist on an industrial scale. We also have a great deal of shale oil. However, our refineries are geared more toward processing cheap, high sulfur crude, from the ME. It takes time to get the capability to use and produce the resources. The present need remains constant.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: InHeavenThereIsNoBeer on May 30, 2019, 05:20:25 am
Hypotetical to the others on this thread.

(1) If we win this trade war does communism survive there?

(2) Does this thing escalate to a shooting war?

(3) Do we blink first and back down?

1) No one wins a trade war.  Everyone loses.  By definition.

2) No.

3) Don't know, don't care, so long as this nonsense ends soon.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: GtHawk on May 30, 2019, 06:32:10 am

Sure they do. The REEs might be here, in those spoil tips, but the methods and facilities don’t exist on an industrial scale. We also have a great deal of shale oil. However, our refineries are geared more toward processing cheap, high sulfur crude, from the ME. It takes time to get the capability to use and produce the resources. The present need remains constant.
But it looks like the methods and facilities are on their way

chrome-extension://ilhapdfjlmhfdgdbefpinebijmhjijpn/https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=AC6480D2-9A7F-4160-BE77-086CC84C7489
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Smokin Joe on May 30, 2019, 11:21:37 am
@thackney @edpc @IsailedawayfromFR  @Fishrrman  @catfish1957

Gee, golly, who didn't see this coming.

The over-regulated USA done did it to themselves. Way to go enviroweenies. China doesn't give a flying RA about environmental concerns.

The U.S. has more rare earths than China.

"China Ahead of the Rare Earths Curve

You might wonder how we could have been in this position in the first place. It has a lot to do with China being decades ahead of the global curve when it comes to understanding the strategic importance of rare earths.

Since the 1960's, China has placed great emphasis on research and development on improving efficiency to recover REMs. That increased the nation's competitive advantage over time and propelled China into the virtual sole provider of REMs of the world.

"The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earth."

Deng Xiaoping predicted in 1987 that the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region would very likely be 'in the front ranks' of development. Deng was quoted as saying "中東有石油,中國有稀土." (The Middle East has its oil, China has rare earth) in a speech he made in January 1992 during his Southern Tour."

From this 2010 article: (there are older ones)

Seventeen Metals: “The Middle East has oil, China has rare earth”

https://www.businessinsider.com/seventeen-metals-the-middle-east-has-oil-china-has-rare-earth-2011-1 (https://www.businessinsider.com/seventeen-metals-the-middle-east-has-oil-china-has-rare-earth-2011-1)

Here is the problem. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY INFRASTRUCTURE TO MINE IN THE U.S. IT WILL TAKE YEARS TO GET IT GOING AFTER, IF EVER, THEY LET THEM MINE IT HERE.
You nailed it, Fred.
It isn't a question of the resources being here, it is a question of being able to get them out of the ground. We have been so overrun with 'don't touch the Earth' types that it is simply easier and less expensive to rely on other sources rather than develop our own resources.
You also correctly point out that the folks who mine, engineer the mines and processing plants to refine ore into finished product don't just pop up overnight. The upshot being that centuries of experience mining are lost, languishing in other jobs as our mines, factories, mills, timber operations, etc. have been shut down, and that aging brain trust, experience, and knowledge lost to time as the capable people who were unemployed die off.
It's the unseen effect of letting the greenies stand in the way of every resource development project, overregulation, and mismanagement, often at the government level, by those with an environmentalist agenda.
These things can be done in a way that is compatible with nature, messy perhaps in the short term, but in the long run, relatively harmless. We can do that better that ever before.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 12:22:55 pm
You nailed it, Fred. It isn't a question of the resources being here, it is a question of being able to get them out of the ground. We have been so overrun with 'don't touch the Earth' types that it is simply easier and less expensive to rely on other sources rather than develop our own resources.


It isn’t a question of tree hugging, it’s a question of if you want a return to times when river fires were not unusual and expected, if you want to live in a development, built upon a toxic dump, or the days when we had modern China’s air quality. This type of industry has blowback. You can either have a cheap product, with real environmental consequences or a more expensive, cleaner process, with real economic consequences.


Cuyahoga River Fire

https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63 (https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63)


Love Canal: A Brief History

https://www.geneseo.edu/history/love_canal_history (https://www.geneseo.edu/history/love_canal_history)


The pictures of bygone Pittsburgh and its residents choking under clouds of thick smog

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html)
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 30, 2019, 01:13:53 pm

Sure they do. The REEs might be here, in those spoil tips, but the methods and facilities don’t exist on an industrial scale. We also have a great deal of shale oil. However, our refineries are geared more toward processing cheap, high sulfur crude, from the ME. It takes time to get the capability to use and produce the resources. The present need remains constant.
The shale oil we have produces a light, sweet hydrocarbon in demand in many places in the world, meaning we can export and make money.  Are you saying that it is bad for the US to export and lower our trade deficit?

And our refineries are processing cheap high sulfur crude as indeed it is cheap to purchase on the world market compared to the sweet low sulfur liquids.  Once again, how is that bad to buy the cheapest raw product? 

@edpc
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 01:40:36 pm
The shale oil we have produces a light, sweet hydrocarbon in demand in many places in the world, meaning we can export and make money.  Are you saying that it is bad for the US to export and lower our trade deficit?

And our refineries are processing cheap high sulfur crude as indeed it is cheap to purchase on the world market compared to the sweet low sulfur liquids.  Once again, how is that bad to buy the cheapest raw product? 

@edpc


We're discussing two different things. I'm talking about having the ability to achieve energy independence, in the event of an economic or full on shooting war. Without the expanded refining capabilities, we cannot.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 30, 2019, 01:43:52 pm

We're discussing two different things. I'm talking about having the ability to achieve energy independence, in the event of an economic or full on shooting war. Without the expanded refining capabilities, we cannot.
You do realize, don't you that this country will never achieve what you call 'energy independence'?

It is a myth and can only be done through a severe retraction of our economy, which most certainly would never condone.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: thackney on May 30, 2019, 01:48:05 pm

We're discussing two different things. I'm talking about having the ability to achieve energy independence, in the event of an economic or full on shooting war. Without the expanded refining capabilities, we cannot.

While a certain amount of the light sweet crude oil is being used domestically and more of it is planned to be used, it make little economic sense to spend money to modify your refinery to use more expensive oil.

When building a new unit, it can make sense to reduce risks by optimizing it for locally produced oil.  Most of the new expansions for the past few years around the gulf coast have done this.

For example:

https://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-proceed-new-crude-unit-part-beaumont-refinery-expansion
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 02:30:21 pm
While a certain amount of the light sweet crude oil is being used domestically and more of it is planned to be used, it make little economic sense to spend money to modify your refinery to use more expensive oil.

When building a new unit, it can make sense to reduce risks by optimizing it for locally produced oil.  Most of the new expansions for the past few years around the gulf coast have done this.

For example:

https://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-proceed-new-crude-unit-part-beaumont-refinery-expansion


Except, we have the benefit of hindsight, in 2019. Would it have been better to expand our domestic production and refinery capabilities since Gulf War I, or spend trillions on entanglements in the Middle East? That cheap oil has actually been quite expensive.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: thackney on May 30, 2019, 02:36:57 pm

Except, we have the benefit of hindsight, in 2019. Would it have been better to expand our domestic production and refinery capabilities since Gulf War I, or spend trillions on entanglements in the Middle East? That cheap oil has actually been quite expensive.

It is naive to believe we could be isolated from the global market of a fungible commodity.  Our presence there has helped stabilize and lower the oil price we pay.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 02:50:28 pm
It is naive to believe we could be isolated from the global market of a fungible commodity.  Our presence there has helped stabilize and lower the oil price we pay.


It’s even more naïve to believe the path between China and the US doesn’t mirror the one between the US and Japan, in the early 20th Century. It’s a similar contest over resources and regional hegemony. What saved us was our isolation and production capacity. We had better be prepared. Our current logistics make us vulnerable.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Smokin Joe on May 30, 2019, 02:50:36 pm

It isn’t a question of tree hugging, it’s a question of if you want a return to times when river fires were not unusual and expected, if you want to live in a development, built upon a toxic dump, or the days when we had modern China’s air quality. This type of industry has blowback. You can either have a cheap product, with real environmental consequences or a more expensive, cleaner process, with real economic consequences.


Cuyahoga River Fire

https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63 (https://clevelandhistorical.org/items/show/63)


Love Canal: A Brief History

https://www.geneseo.edu/history/love_canal_history (https://www.geneseo.edu/history/love_canal_history)


The pictures of bygone Pittsburgh and its residents choking under clouds of thick smog

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2155742/Hell-lid-taken-The-pictures-bygone-Pittsburgh-residents-choking-clouds-smog.html)
No one wants to return to that mess. At the same time, we are in a situation where the only thing that makes the ecowhackos happy is that not one spade is turned, not one well drilled, not one resource mined. You want a return to cooking over dung fires (because you won't be allowed to burn trees), fine, but they'd probably protest that, too.

If you want National security in terms of resources, we have to mine our own. That means making a mess, digging a hole, drilling a well to extract those resources, and it means having the means to process the crude feedstocks and ores into the resources we need. There is no middle ground.

We are aware, more than ever, of the damage that can be done.
We have the technology to prevent a lot of that, now, some even to the profit of the enterprise refining the ore or other feedstock.
We have legal requirements for reclamation bonds and site cleanup.

This isn't 1960.

What IS happening, is that the environmentalist movement of today is obstructing even the cleanest development. That paradigm will not sustain our technological culture in the event we don't buy stuff from people who make far worse messes elsewhere, without any regard for the environment or those who live there, for the money we send them.

So play NIMBY or go Luddite, but our country will only be conquered by those who have the will to develop their resources, to their economic and military advantage.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: thackney on May 30, 2019, 02:54:08 pm

It’s even more naïve to believe the path between China and the US doesn’t mirror the one between the US and Japan, in the early 20th Century. It’s a similar contest over resources and regional hegemony. What saved us was our isolation and production capacity. We had better be prepared. Our current logistics make us vulnerable.

In the case of an emergency, you can run off-spec crude oil through a refinery that was designed for heavier oil.  It will not be as efficient, and likely product output will be bottlenecked at a different product than before.

But it is not a case it must be 28.8° API gravity and not 28.9°.  And running a sweeter crude is far easier than running a crude too sour.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 30, 2019, 03:03:07 pm

It’s even more naïve to believe the path between China and the US doesn’t mirror the one between the US and Japan, in the early 20th Century. It’s a similar contest over resources and regional hegemony. What saved us was our isolation and production capacity. We had better be prepared. Our current logistics make us vulnerable.
Energy access is not nearly as important in time of conflict as the ability to make war machinery.

Your focus here should be towards our domestic manufacturing sector instead as we can buy or steal hydrocarbons to use, but cannot ask other countries to manufacture our military equipment.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: edpc on May 30, 2019, 04:05:33 pm
Energy access is not nearly as important in time of conflict as the ability to make war machinery.

Your focus here should be towards our domestic manufacturing sector instead as we can buy or steal hydrocarbons to use, but cannot ask other countries to manufacture our military equipment.


It’s both. When I said production capacity, I was referring (though not clearly) to critical wartime materials, such as oil, steel, aluminum, and REEs for use in domestic production. We could probably tailor existing facilities to manufacture necessary materials. We have done it before.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on May 30, 2019, 09:23:15 pm

It’s both. When I said production capacity, I was referring (though not clearly) to critical wartime materials, such as oil, steel, aluminum, and REEs for use in domestic production. We could probably tailor existing facilities to manufacture necessary materials. We have done it before.
Once again, those manufacturing facilities we tailored during WW2 now do not exist for the most part. 

To retain the abilities to make our military equipment is far more important than the access to hydrocarbons, which we have in abundance compared to those factories.

It is one reason that I reluctantly support the continued domestic auto industry.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: InHeavenThereIsNoBeer on May 31, 2019, 12:13:37 am
Once again, those manufacturing facilities we tailored during WW2 now do not exist for the most part. 

To retain the abilities to make our military equipment is far more important than the access to hydrocarbons, which we have in abundance compared to those factories.

It is one reason that I reluctantly support the continued domestic auto industry.

In WW2, we could crank out a tank or a plane in what, something like a week?  If we get into a really hot war that requires us to use more than we already have, can we even get the first one off the assembly line before the conflict is over?  Certainly there would be advantages to starting the process of replenishing our arsenal ASAP, but I suspect we'll fight WW3 with the weapons we have on hand, very much unlike WW2.  And I also think tooling up the factories will be much less of an effort compared to the time it takes to do the actual manufacturing of our modern fighting tools.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Smokin Joe on May 31, 2019, 10:16:14 pm
In WW2, we could crank out a tank or a plane in what, something like a week?  If we get into a really hot war that requires us to use more than we already have, can we even get the first one off the assembly line before the conflict is over?  Certainly there would be advantages to starting the process of replenishing our arsenal ASAP, but I suspect we'll fight WW3 with the weapons we have on hand, very much unlike WW2.  And I also think tooling up the factories will be much less of an effort compared to the time it takes to do the actual manufacturing of our modern fighting tools.
That's one attitude: Error 404 (Not Found)!!1 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGT6bdlcLPI#)

But in the event of a protracted conflict, it would be a good idea to make some replacement stuff....
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: IsailedawayfromFR on June 01, 2019, 01:14:58 pm
That didn't take long.  Seems the DOD had a plan 'B' already in hand.

Pentagon to counter China threats by funding U.S. rare earth mines
Quote
The U.S. Defense Department requested federal funding to support the ramp-up of several American rare earth element mines after China threatened an export ban.

The Sino-American Trade War raged this week with a series of back and forth retaliations. With China generally being unable to gain advantage by pressuring the Trump administration over the risks of higher import prices key component interruptions, Bloomberg reported that Beijing’s leadership has a plan to restrict export supply of the 17 so-called rare earth elements that are crucial to the U.S. production of military jet engines, satellites and lasers, plus consumer products from iPhones to electric cars.

The threat against the U.S. was issued Thursday in a China People’s Daily incendiary headline: “United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back.” The article warned that the United States’ “uncomfortable” dependence on China rare earths.

The Government Accountability Office in 2016 reported that the United States represents about 9 percent of world demand for rare earth elements, with the Defense Department accounting for 1 percent of demand. But 15 or the 17 elements are key inputs across most of America’s high-tech weapons systems.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5 (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5)
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Smokin Joe on June 01, 2019, 01:17:15 pm
That didn't take long.  Seems the DOD had a plan 'B' already in hand.

Pentagon to counter China threats by funding U.S. rare earth mines
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5 (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5)
Of course. This is a weakness in our strategic supply lines that has been known for some time. What has been absent is the will to try to develop such resources during hostile administrations, subject to being undercut by Chinese suppliers at any time.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: catfish1957 on June 01, 2019, 02:28:01 pm
That didn't take long.  Seems the DOD had a plan 'B' already in hand.

Pentagon to counter China threats by funding U.S. rare earth mines
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5 (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5)

Yep.   A Thank you to the Chicom bastards for helping jump start that new aspect of the US economy.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Free Vulcan on June 01, 2019, 08:04:51 pm
That didn't take long.  Seems the DOD had a plan 'B' already in hand.

Pentagon to counter China threats by funding U.S. rare earth mines
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5 (https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/06/pentagon_to_counter_china_threats_by_funding_us_rare_earth_mines.html#ixzz5pbNVXOv5)

It sounds like someone in DC was actually thinking ahead for once.
Title: Re: China Threatens to ‘Weaponize’ Rare Earths in Trade War Escalation
Post by: Victoria33 on June 02, 2019, 03:44:35 am
They could kneecap us pretty good if they followed thru.
I'm suprised they pulled this card. Can't always tell if they are scared or cocky, but the fact that they did is ominous.
@Free Vulcan
@mystery-ak 
@Cyber Liberty

Trump put a tariff on Chinese goods, thinking he can do anything he wants to any country.  He is not smart enough to consider what a country might do to him/us when he threatens their existence which he has done with China and has just put a tariff on Mexico, harming us again with higher prices for things we need from Mexico.  I heard a car here will now cost over $1,000 more due to doing this to Mexico.  Vegetables will be more expensive than they are now.

Trump's actions and rhetoric suggest he has a God Complex - well, he isn't God and countries are not falling down and worshiping him.  These countries are making plans to keep their country strong while Trump tries to destroy them.  Trump will be personally fine but this country, which is us, will have a lower standard of living.  He will go back to Trump Tower and tell the world he was the greatest President who ever lived.

How many countries used to be our friends and now they despise us due to Trump's manner and his dismissal of any country, any country leader as having worth.  Not only does he dismiss other countries as not having worth, he think this about any person in this country and that is you, me, any person.  Only he matters.

Back to China. They can substantially harm the US financially if they tire of Trump's tariffs harming them - harm is doubled sided which Trump has not recognized yet - he is still all him thinking he can do what he wants to the world.  If  the US was faced with bankruptcy due to China's actions to hurt Trump because he hurt them, Trump has gone bankrupt so many times, it means nothing to him, just as this country means nothing to him. Consider the rest in quotes except for ( ):

May 6, 2019
US Debt Owned by China
China's Large Position in U.S. Treasuries
The United States’ debt load has risen substantially since the start of the millennium raising concerns to some of the country’s long-term financial health. But who owns all of this debt? A nation’s debt consists of the total amount of bonds it has issued or sold. The U.S. debt sits at just over $21 trillion as of June 2018, and the largest investors in U.S. Treasuries are other governments and central banks.

China, which owned an estimated $1.18 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, is the number-one investor among foreign governments, according to the April 2018 figures released by the U.S. Treasury. This amounts to over 21 percent of the U.S. debt held overseas and about 7.2 percent of the United States’ total debt load. Learn more: After China, who are the largest investors in U.S. debt?

If China stops buying or elects to sell even a small portion of its position, U.S. Treasury prices would fall and yields would rise. The result of higher rates, in turn, would likely be slower economic growth and higher borrowing costs for the U.S. government.

(In September, 2012), with under two weeks to go until the United States would have to raise their debt limit or face the possibility of a default, China's Vice Foreign Minister, Zhu Guangyao, warned U.S. politicians that "the clock is ticking" and said, “We ask that the United States earnestly takes steps to resolve in a timely way the political issues around the debt ceiling and prevent a U.S. debt default to ensure the safety of Chinese investments in the United States.” This helps demonstrate that China may indeed try to influence the course of events in the United States when it feels a threat to its interests exists.
https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-u-s-debt-does-china-own-417016 (https://www.thebalance.com/how-much-u-s-debt-does-china-own-417016)