The Briefing Room
General Category => Politics/Government => Topic started by: mystery-ak on October 18, 2013, 02:27:16 pm
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http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/handicappers-shutdown-puts-more-than-17-gop-seats-in-play-20131017 (http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/handicappers-shutdown-puts-more-than-17-gop-seats-in-play-20131017)
Handicappers: Shutdown Puts More Than 17 GOP Seats in PlayRepublicans lose ground in 14 House districts, according to new rankings from Cook Political Report.
By Alex Seitz-Wald October 17, 2013
The government shutdown and debt crisis has made 14 House seats more winnable for Democrats, according to new independent ratings released Thursday from The Cook Political Report. There are now—for the first time this cycle—more Republican seats "in play" than the 17 Democrats would need to win in order to take the majority in 2014.
The ratings from the highly regarded political handicapping group, whose founder, Charlie Cook, is also a columnist for the National Journal, is the latest sign that the shutdown has seriously damaged Republicans.
"Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it's doubtful they can sustain this month's momentum for another year. But Republicans' actions have energized Democratic fundraising and recruiting efforts and handed Democrats a potentially effective message," Cook's David Wasserman explains. Ten Democratic seats remain "toss ups," meaning the party would probably need to win at least 20 seats to take back the speaker's gavel.
One West Virginia district, currently held by Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall, moved in the GOP's favor, from a rating of "lean Democratic" to "toss up." But 12 districts currently held by Republicans moved in the direction of Democrats, while two districts currently held by Democrats solidified.
It's way too early to know if these movements will hold until November of next year, but its unusual for Cook to move so many districts in one direction all at once. Democrats were losing altitude in generic ballot tests until the shutdown, only to see their numbers climb 5.5 percentage points over the past two weeks. But thanks to gerrymandering, analysts say Democrats need somewhere closer to a 7-point generic ballot lead to retake the House.
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No problem. They can pass immigration reform to get back in the good graces of the public /s
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"Democrats still have a very uphill climb to a majority, and it's doubtful they can sustain this month's momentum for another year. But Republicans' actions have energized Democratic fundraising and recruiting efforts and handed Democrats a potentially effective message," Cook's David Wasserman explains. Ten Democratic seats remain "toss ups," meaning the party would probably need to win at least 20 seats to take back the speaker's gavel.
Politically speaking, 0bamacare will be the gift that keeps on giving for the Republicans. They need to be running ads featuring people whose lives have been adversely affected by it, and they aren't hard to find. The ads need to associate 0bamacare with every Democrat. They also need to explain (in snippets, of course) what the Republicans will do to fix it.
The person who finds himself in a fight against a larger opponent can win if they use their opponent's size against him. 0bamacare--and by extension, the Dems who support it--can be brought down, but not by going toe-to-toe & trading punches to the face.
In life, the responsible one(s) seldom get credit for fixing the screwups of the irresponsible. Clinton gets pushed by a Republican Congress to pass welfare reform and live within a budget, and the Dems get credit (in voters' minds) for being responsible and leaving office with a surplus in the budget. 0bama's deficit has gotten smaller recently because House Republicans have pushed for (small but not totally insignificant) cuts. Dems are out there talking about how responsible 0bama is now that the deficit is a bit smaller. On the other hand, when Bush was president, Republicans held hearings and made warnings about subprime mortgages and were called fearmongers. When the bubble popped, Bush got the blame. The Republicans have to figure out how to get credit for the things they do. Sure, it's an uphill battle when voters blindly believe everything the media tell them, but Republicans have to figure this one out.
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"These polls can't possibly be right, because I don't like the results." /s
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Politically speaking, 0bamacare will be the gift that keeps on giving for the Republicans. They need to be running ads featuring people whose lives have been adversely affected by it, and they aren't hard to find. The ads need to associate 0bamacare with every Democrat. They also need to explain (in snippets, of course) what the Republicans will do to fix it.
The problem is that this assumes the the GOP wants to be something other than an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party.
That assumption is not supported by any observable actions...
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The problem is that this assumes the the GOP wants to be something other than an ineffective alternative to the Democrat Party.
That assumption is not supported by any observable actions...
Which leaves only one option, in my opinion.
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And in a few months, most people won't care or even remember.
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"These polls can't possibly be right, because I don't like the results." /s
I remember arguing against the Nate Silver polls during the last election. I couldn't have been more wrong. That said, he now says the shutdown will have zero effect on the 2014 mid-terms, because voters simply forget or don't care.
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because voters simply forget or don't care.
Or because most of them (on both sides) are too ignorant to really understand the issues.
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Or because most of them (on both sides) are too ignorant to really understand the issues.
Many of them right now don't even know that a shutdown occurred. I know, because I work with a few of them. I wish at times I was blissfully ignorant and incurious. It would make me sleep better at night.
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First off, there is only one handicapper being mentioned here, not the plural "handicappers" NJ claims. Reliable polling on the topic on a district-by-district basis has been sparse, so any assumptions on this hurting one over the other is nothing more than speculation at this point. Nate Silver, for one, would disagree. From what I have seen on the ground, and admittedly most of my more politically active friends are conservative to libertarian, the people are more upset about the wasted money, the debt, and the fact that the shutdown didn't really shut anything down-- all things that play into the conservatives' hands. People like Allen West and Mia Long who lost last time around would find far more favorable conditions in this environment, without the Obama coattails.
(As for the accuracy, I remember back in late 2012. I think most of us understood that the road to a Romney victory would have required him to win states that had not voted GOP in a presidential race for quite some time-- Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania-- to make up for the loss of places like Virginia and Ohio. While I might not have agreed to the extent Romney was an underdog, given that there was polling showing Romney up in those states before the election, Silver was not far off base saying Obama had the natural advantage, as much as he did not deserve it given his record.)
Second, I find it interesting that nobody has been talking about the Senate, which is where the real battle lies. Any anti-incumbent sentiment (and all the polling has shown it is strong) would work in the GOP's favor in that chamber. But let's not talk about THAT. That disrupts The Narrative.
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Many of them right now don't even know that a shutdown occurred. I know, because I work with a few of them. I wish at times I was blissfully ignorant and incurious. It would make me sleep better at night.
That is exactly why it is so easy for the MSM to manipulate people.