The Briefing Room

General Category => World News => Topic started by: DCPatriot on February 23, 2014, 02:12:22 pm

Title: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: DCPatriot on February 23, 2014, 02:12:22 pm
Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare

The domino effect of democracy on Russia's border threatens the entire system Putin has built since 2000 - and he will not let it go lightly


The details still need to be decided, but the revolutionaries have won in Ukraine. Some elements of the old regime may survive, but that is precisely why the protesters on the “Maidan” (Kiev’s main square) don’t trust the mainstream politicians who claim to be negotiating on their behalf.

The politicians in suits can do the donkey work – writing a new constitution to improve on the old one they have just restored, and trying to save the collapsing economy. But the Maidan leaders in the fatigues and helmets will set the agenda on justice – dismantling the militia and reworking the corrupt legal system, so that the many guilty end up behind bars. And there are credible reports that the snipers who killed more than 70 on Thursday were based in the government buildings that are  already being occupied by protesters combing for evidence. Once the world knows who gave the deadly orders, justice will decapitate the old regime. And the “official”  opposition will be radicalised by the need to compete with the moral authority of the Maidan.

All of which is the Kremlin’s worst nightmare. When the protests started back in November they were about a trade deal with the EU. Russia was ecstatic that it had persuaded Ukraine to walk away from that deal, and was picking off the other states in the EU’s “Eastern Partnership” programme (Armenia caved in September, Georgia and Moldova were  expected to come under enormous pressure in 2014). Russia hoped to drag them into its alternative Eurasian Union instead, which is due to be launched in January 2015.

continued at link:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-a-new-ukraine-is-the-kremlins-worst-nightmare-9146751.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-a-new-ukraine-is-the-kremlins-worst-nightmare-9146751.html)

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Right_in_Virginia on February 23, 2014, 08:51:10 pm
"BTTT"
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Bigun on February 23, 2014, 08:57:18 pm
Exactly! No doubt about it!
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 24, 2014, 04:22:03 pm
the domino effect is not a particularly strong argument - other than as an excuse for otherwise unwarranted military intervention.
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Bigun on February 24, 2014, 04:26:51 pm
Quote from: Oceander on February 24, 2014, 04:22:03 pm
the domino effect is not a particularly strong argument - other than as an excuse for otherwise unwarranted military intervention.

Except for the fact that the domino effect argument was absolutely spot on correct in the case of Vietnam I suppose not!
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 24, 2014, 04:27:50 pm
Quote from: Bigun on February 24, 2014, 04:26:51 pm
Except for the fact that the domino effect argument was absolutely spot on correct in the case of Vietnam I suppose not!



Ri-i-i-i-i-ght.  How many of those supposed dominoes toppled after Vietnam?  Not enough to justify calling it a theory as opposed to an excuse.
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Bigun on February 24, 2014, 04:44:59 pm
Quote from: Oceander on February 24, 2014, 04:27:50 pm

Ri-i-i-i-i-ght.  How many of those supposed dominoes toppled after Vietnam?  Not enough to justify calling it a theory as opposed to an excuse.

ROFLMAO! What ever you say councilor!
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 25, 2014, 04:27:51 am
Quote from: Bigun on February 24, 2014, 04:44:59 pm
ROFLMAO! What ever you say councilor!

facts are stubborn things, aren't they?  And the facts say that the number of dominoes that fell was not sufficient to confirm the domino theory.
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Bigun on February 25, 2014, 02:26:21 pm
Quote from: Oceander on February 25, 2014, 04:27:51 am
facts are stubborn things, aren't they?  And the facts say that the number of dominoes that fell was not sufficient to confirm the domino theory.

Indeed they are and I say the facts entirely validate the domino theory.

Here are the facts in as condensed  a form as I can present them.

In 1975 South Vietnam fell followed shortly by Laos and Cambodia. THE DOMINO THEORY PROVED TO BE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT.

Due to the length of the Vietnam War the other countries in SEA that might have been vulnerable had time to get their economies and security in order, and proved to be less at risk then they might have been in 1954 or even 1964. Also, the treatment of the Buddhists, particularly in Cambodia, offended the Thai people so badly it was unlikely they would have support a Communist takeover in the aftermath of the Vietnam War.

http://www.peterleeson.com/Domino_Theory.pdf
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: aligncare on February 25, 2014, 02:53:11 pm
We had this discussion in January, Bigun. I agree with Ocean regarding Vietnam. This is how I replied then and I believe my closing question is the take-away lesson from history:

Indonesia is a republic. Malaysia is a federal constitutional monarchy. Cambodia is a unitary state with a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary system. The Republic of Philippines has a democratic government.  Of the southeast Asian countries, only Laos remains as one of the world's five Socialist states (the others being China, Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea).

And from what I have been able to determine Laos is not an oppressive state, it's constitution contains most key safeguards for human rights – and it has a thriving tourism industry. However, Amnesty International has raised concerns about human rights violations in Laos.

We lost over 58,000 troops in Vietnam. To what end? Was it worth it?
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Bigun on February 25, 2014, 03:07:18 pm
Quote from: aligncare on February 25, 2014, 02:53:11 pm
We had this discussion in January, Bigun. I agree with Ocean regarding Vietnam. This is how I replied then and I believe my closing question is the take-away lesson from history:

Indonesia is a republic. Malaysia is a federal constitutional monarchy. Cambodia is a unitary state with a constitutional monarchy and a parliamentary system. The Republic of Philippines has a democratic government.  Of the southeast Asian countries, only Laos remains as one of the world's five Socialist states (the others being China, Cuba, Vietnam, and North Korea).

And from what I have been able to determine Laos is not an oppressive state, it's constitution contains most key safeguards for human rights – and it has a thriving tourism industry. However, Amnesty International has raised concerns about human rights violations in Laos.

We lost over 58,000 troops in Vietnam. To what end? Was it worth it?

"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."

--John Adams
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 25, 2014, 07:12:02 pm
Quote from: Bigun on February 25, 2014, 03:07:18 pm
"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclination, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."

--John Adams


Indeed they are, which is why your argument falls flat.  If all of the dominoes do not fall, then the domino theory is false.  Not all the dominoes fell.  Therefore the domino theory is false.  QED
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: truth_seeker on February 25, 2014, 07:33:43 pm
Ukrainians want to have the standard of living of Czech Republic (GDP=$27000 per capita), not Uzbekistan (GDP=$3500 per capita).
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: aligncare on February 26, 2014, 11:56:10 am
Fearing the spread of communism was a national obsession in the postwar days. On the geopolitical front it was more a game of chess than Domino's. The US clandestinely supported Ho Chi Minh's guerrillas attempt to oust the Vichy French who had tried to reoccupy Vietnam after World War II. Then, as in Middle East politics today, Ho Chi Minh became an enemy of the US when it was america's turn in Vietnam a decade later.

Maybe with our new Camelot administration, Obama should begin sending "advisers" to Ukraine? Dominos anyone?
Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 27, 2014, 02:49:10 am
Quote from: aligncare on February 26, 2014, 11:56:10 am
Fearing the spread of communism was a national obsession in the postwar days. On the geopolitical front it was more a game of chess than Domino's. The US clandestinely supported Ho Chi Minh's guerrillas attempt to oust the Vichy French who had tried to reoccupy Vietnam after World War II. Then, as in Middle East politics today, Ho Chi Minh became an enemy of the US when it was america's turn in Vietnam a decade later.

Maybe with our new Camelot administration, Obama should begin sending "advisers" to Ukraine? Dominos anyone?

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/04/Dominoes.jpg)

Title: Re: Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
Post by: Oceander on February 27, 2014, 02:49:40 am
Quote from: truth_seeker on February 25, 2014, 07:33:43 pm
Ukrainians want to have the standard of living of Czech Republic (GDP=$27000 per capita), not Uzbekistan (GDP=$3500 per capita).

I'd like them to have the former rather than the latter, too.