The Briefing Room
General Category => National/Breaking News => Weather => Topic started by: catfish1957 on August 25, 2021, 09:29:25 am
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There are three areas out in the Atlantic Basin that are being monitored for storm development
97L- Has good chance of development of a substantial storm, but will only impact mid and North Atlantic. could potentially impact Bermuda
98L- Also a mid Atlantic storm that isn't expected. What these guys call Fish Storms.
99L- Area that we along the Gulf Coast might be needing to monitor, especially next week.
1st the Model information. This area and 97L (IMO due to time of year and climatoglical history) both will likely become Ida and Julian, Who gets named first depends on which reaches Tropical Storm Strength first. (39 mph susatained winds)
(https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif)
Even though these early model runs show a tendency of focus on Lousiana coast. Absolutely do not put any faith in that. The entire U.S Gulf Coast should be monitoring 99l for its path and strengthening.
Model data on intensity.... This is one that worries me most early on here. I have found that the HWFI, if I had to pick is the most accuate of these. OTOH, 6 of the other 7 have strength at tropical storm or Cat 1 strength. HWFI is the outlier, but it has predicted other storms well. All the models have a landfall pretty well clustered on or about 132 hours from now
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png)
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8AM NHC Update....
000
ABNT20 KNHC 251138
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the
south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional
development to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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Wednesday afternoon update points....
(1) Seems the models are becoming more consitent at pointing this thing toward the western Gulf (>90W Longitude). A few outliers though, with scatter generally from a point eastward from Palacios to the Mouth of the Mississippi. In most cases a 990 mb T.S. to a 960 mb Cat 1 hurricane
(2) Good news on how the models are handling the strenghening. About half at Cat 1, half at T.S.
(3) Last 8 hours shows some better organization. I think this thing gets named within 24 hours.
(4) Entire gulf should still monitor progress of this storm, maybe into early next week.
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_geps_latest.png)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png)
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Louisiana, Mississippi??
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Louisiana, Mississippi??
For certain, likely somewhere along the gulf coast, considering met maps, (lows, highs, troughs, steering) :cool:
Based on this exact moment's model data? Somewhere between Palacios, TX and NOLA. As a T.S or Cat 1 storm.
But also realize these models in these early runs are real squirrelly. Conceivably they could all be aiming for Miami as a Cat 5 by tomorrow.
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Thursday Morning Update on Invest 99L
(1) Seems there is a lot more convection this morning with the system, but also seems more elongated to the north and west. IR, Visible, and water loops all show some circulation, but I for one, can't find a COC (Center of circulation) defined enough to truly believe that a depression has formed. Understand the Hurricane HUnters will be investigating later today. In any case 4AM has passed, and the NHC still has this as a wave.
(2) Model Data on storm direction. Pretty strong and consitient this far out and early. Outside 2 CLP outliers, the models have target in a about a 180 mile stretch from McFaddin Beach Texas (near Port Arthur) to the Louisiana/ Mississippi Border only 5days out.
(3) As far as strength at landfall, 11 of the 13 models have the storm at T.S or Cat 1. But again, the often reliable HWFI shows it potentially reaching Cat 4. All seeming and peaking at about the 96 hour point.
(4) Looking at the Gulf, water temps are very conducive (mostly upper '80's) development. Sheer and circulation patterns in the gulf are pretty tame right now too, so I don't see sheer as much of a factor if the storm gets organized. Continental High Pressure has also eased, so I don't think there is much from keeping this storm from turning north, like Grace last week.
(5) At least at this very moment, with pretty strong model agreement, IMO interests in Western Gulf, say from about Corpus Christi to Pensacola FL should keep on top of this potential storm. And a disclaimer.... Predicting hurricanes is perilous, and can have huge errors in estmating future location and strength. We had an example last week. Last Friday night, almost all agencies expected Hurricane Grace to reach the Mexican coast. But the storm rapidly strenghthedn overnight into a near Cat 4 storm, and slammed the Mexican beach near Vera Cruz with sustained 125 mph winds.
(http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2021/al992021//track_early/aal99_2021082606_track_early.png)
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/99L_intensity_latest.png)
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Seeing good reports from Mets that the two model groups that the two model groups Euro and GFS are coming into closer agreement. Biggest questions is around storm initialization.
Right now the we are seeing somewhat of an unexpected drift north of the cluster of convection. Where the storm forms exactly will have great impact where it lands. A continual drift north I am thinking puts SE LA to FL more in play. If forms soon, and drifts more westward, I expect SE TX and SW LA more in play.
At this exact moment, both models are close on the choice being the central to SE LA coast.
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7 AM Update from the NHC. IMO- Still not really seeing what I would call a strong center of circulation in an area maybe a 100 miles south of Jamaica. Overall convection movement does still seem to have more a north than westward vector. There is a lot of debate right now around how strong and how influential the High over SC is right now. It will likely be the biggest influence on the overall dircection of the storm.
Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of
Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves
northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the
Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel
Friday and Friday night. Given the recent developmental trends,
Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba
could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba
and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.
The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday
and Monday. However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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NHC has announced that 99L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression No. 9, and will very likely Ida later today. MIght be jumping hte gun a few hours, but have adjusted the thread to reflect Storm name.
Here are the graphics and forecasts from the NHC..
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/144701_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
WTNT24 KNHC 261444
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE
CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW.
Z
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The 1pm CDT advisory is out. No change in windspeed (35mph). Storm has moved from 16.9 N 79.2 W to 17.5 N 79.5 W. I do not believe that the storm is moving that dramatically NNW, but I am still thinking future Ida is still getting its footing on initialization before resuming on its expected WNW/NW track.
There is one point that makes this COC relocation important though. When this point is added to the models, I think it will possibly result in an eastward shift of the cone of uncertainty. Obviously, our FL Briefers are aware that these projected paths can change.
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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4PM Thursday NHC Advisory for TD 9/ Future Ida.....
As I mentioned that this initiaization of a more NNW vector has overall impacted the place of cone. Supposed storm center is still per report moving more NNW than NW. This IMO has resulted in the shift eastward of the Cone. Landfall now is expected near Houma Sunday afternoon, with the cone reaching from TX/LA border to MS/AL border. This is about a 50-80 mile shift. Expected strength has not changed... 105 mph at landfall, a strong Cat 2.
Not that I am a beleiver of model trends, but if we keep seeing this more NNW-ward move, I fully expect to see the FL panhandle included in the Cone of upcoming advisories.
Models- (See 1st post..it autoupdates) have really tightened up around a SE La. landfall, with a few outliers toward MS/AL
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204641_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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Hurricane Hunters have found 40 mph winds in the circulation. As of 5 pm the NHC has offically upgraded TD 9 to Tropical Storm Ida.
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(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204641_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
@catfish1957
I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.
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@catfish1957
I really appreciate this map. Looks like we're going to luck out on this one.
Outside the cone at this point too, (barely). OTOH, seems the poor folks in La., just can't seem to buy a break.
Not much more to report on 10 pm advisory, except Hurricane Watches have been posted from Cameron, La to MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm watch from AL/MS border to AL/FL border
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Friday, August 27 7:00 am update....
My sat links aren't working (maybe high traffic), so I am not getting a read on the IR, Visible, and Water Loops to give my trend thoughts.
What I can tell you is that Ida has strengthed and now is a mid level Tropical Storm with 60 mph sustained winds, The storm does seem to be following the expected NW coast. This 315 degreeish (NW) vector is expected to continue (at this moment) until the storm approaches the coast, which then will start to veer north, then NNE within a few hundred miles after landfall. The point of the most recent updates, is that now Ida is expected to reach Major Hurricane status with 115 mph winds just south of around Houma/Morgan City.
The overall path and watches has not changed much since last night. With Hurricane Watches from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border, and Tropical Storm Watches from MS/AL border to AL/FL border. As far as time, NHC sees the the eye reaching the LA coast sometimes late afternoon Sunday, with conditions detiorating late Saturday Night, or Sunday morning.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/100510_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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10 a.m. update. Since NHC graphics autorefreshes, please look at previous NHC graphic for path/warnings.
Finally got to my satelitte loops and Ida is really looking stronger. In fact I could find some minor evidence of spiraling band in the NW quadrant of the COC. Overall concentrated convection field has doubled in size in the past 10-12 hours Sustained winds are at 65 mph and very likely strenghtening as it approaches the SW coast of Cuba. Cone itself has not moved in over 12 hours. Just shows how well the models are handling this storm thus far. And pretty much all of them run from about Pecan Island to the MS coast.
IMO... Everyone from SE Texas to FL panhandle should keep a close eye on the storm. Those in the cone should be rushing to completion their hurricane preparations. This is now forecasted at 120 mph at landfall, and that windspeed could increase. There is pretty much 90 degree bathwater throughout the northern GOM.
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Governor Of Louisiana Declares State Of Emergency As Tropical Storm Ida Intensifies
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Ida makes its way toward the Gulf coast.
The storm, which has triggered hurricane watches in parts of the state, is gaining strength and could make landfall as soon as Sunday, the governor said in a press release.
“Unfortunately, all of Louisiana’s coastline is currently in the forecast cone for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could come ashore in Louisiana as a major hurricane as Gulf conditions are conducive for rapid intensification,” Edwards said.
“Now is the time for people to finalize their emergency game plan, which should take into account the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,” he added.
more
https://dailycaller.com/2021/08/27/governor-louisiana-state-of-emergency-tropical-storm-ida/
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431320221256671238
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https://twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1431332053165948935
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Wow. I hope everyone in the path of that thing takes precautions. God bless.
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And knowing this Administration, folks in the Gulf better pretty much assume, they are on their own.
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The Trump flood of 21.
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Ida now a hurricane, and is approaching Cuba at quicker forward speed.
Am seeing some models trending westward. NHC I think has compensated and adjust landfall from Houma to to near Pecan Island in most recent forecast updates.
To my fellow SE Texans, I don't think we are 100% out of the woods yet. Last year the Bermuda high was understated, and we starting seeing the Laura's path trend westward, and before we knew it in about 36 hours the path had changed from near NOLA to SW Louisiana.
Really critical will be how and where Ida gets spit out after interacting with Cuba. I personally am parsing lat/long clicks to think about where it is going, and adjusting incrementally Depending on that interaction, Ida may come out ragged enough that center may need reinitalization. Based on my looking at Sat data, finding a COC is getting a little tough based on the storms interaction with land nearby.
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Thursday August 27th NHC update.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021
...CENTER OF IDA APPROACHING WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 83.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
Previous Watches have been been upgraded to Warnings.
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BNO News
@BNONews
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31s
BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC
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Oh no! Louisiana's got a monster coming at her! I hope people are able to evacuate. A Cat 4 packs a powerful punch -- with LA there's always the concern of major storm surge as well.
Hurricane Ida's strength forces mandatory evacuations in Louisiana as Biden declares state of emergency
https://www.foxnews.com/us/hurricane-idas-strength-forces-mandatory-evacuations-in-louisiana
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BNO News
@BNONews
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31s
BREAKING: Ida forecast to reach Louisiana as a major category 4 hurricane - NHC
Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.
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Sure hope authorites are rushing to completion evacuation of lower parishes near the coast.
Looks like MS and AL are going to be impacted as well. Looks like the FL panhandle may see TS winds and rain.
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Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?
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https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431364380587921410
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Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?
Haven't they fixed those levees yet!
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Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?
A Cat 4. Absolutely! I'm hoping that it doesn't intensify as much as they think that it's going too.
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Haven't they fixed those levees yet!
Those were "shovel ready jobs" Oh well.
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Am I correct in assuming that this could be a serious threat to the levees in LA?
From my experience this does have the potential to be a Cat 5. There may be more significant more storm surge than either Katrina or Laura.
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Live feed has 5 parishes now with mandatory evacuation in Louisiana. Didn't catch the names though.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/newsmax/status/1431349058036109315
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:facepalm:
https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4
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:facepalm:
https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4
Stupidity!!
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Ida slams Cuba as a Category 1 hurricane but when it makes landfall in the US it's expected to be Category 4
By Jason Hanna, Paul P. Murphy and Melissa Alonso, CNN
Updated 8:15 PM ET, Fri August 27, 2021
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/27/weather/tropical-storm-ida-friday/index.html
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(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL3_ww1_1280x720.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60)
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:facepalm:
https://rumble.com/embed/vj5oom/?pub=4
May I suggest to the Mayor to use school busses?
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https://twitter.com/Jay_WAFB/status/1431372505734914050
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The Dome is always a home away from home.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fdybiz.com%2Fsites_randomblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2011%2F07%2Fkatrina_beer_looter-233x300.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
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Nawlins, If I'm not mistaken has 5 pumps to keep the citizens from learning how to swim, quickly and I guauntee you that 4 are broken and the ONE is intermittent.
(https://www.bing.com/images/blob?bcid=TiesFALC7icDkQ)
Time to call the General out of retirement.
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27 August 2021 Hurricane Ida advisory update...
Distinctive eye has formed in proxmity and interaction of the land of Cuba. Large field of convection around eye about 125 miles in diameter has enmassed around eye. This is my first look at the storm since about 5pm my time, and I can tell you, I am jaw-dropped in that these do not look like the same storms. Full thermal outflow at 3 quadrants. Yes, Ida is intensifying rapidly it appears.
Cone has narrowed as expected as we get closer to landfall, and seems to have moved very slightly eastward. Exact path seems to be aimed at right at Morgan City, Louisana, with cone itself stretching from White Lake eastward to Mouth of the Mississippi.
Outside a dying ULL just off shore of LA right now, the path looks clear of sheer. Bathwater temps of near 90 F only add to the NHC expectation that this will be a Cat 4 storm, and potentially the rare Cat 5. Now that it has been established that all the path environmental conditions are set for this to be a monster, now the big question is where wlll it go. It's fate and direction (90%) will hinge on the strength of the high pressure centered in the Carolinas. How strong it ridges will dictate who feels the brunt. If the high builds further, Lafayette will be the more likely target. If it retracts?..... We are looking at a more likely scenario of towards Gulfport, MS.
One last observation of sat data the past 5 minutes that may or may not be of consequence..... Eye collapsed, and quickly appeared to reform about 20-30 miles due north of prior position. Not 100% sure I am reading this exactly right, but if it truly is a true northward wobble of the COC, I can see an eastward shift in the next advisory.
One last tool, I am using, and want to share with Cane Watching Junkies. In my last updates i mentioned Lat/Long clicks. Easy to monitor this storm performance, is that just prior to a sharp northward turn 8-12 hours to landfall, the storm is forecasted to follow at true NW vector. Meaning between now and then, if the storm behaves with forecast, you should see the same Lat and Long increases per each advisory. Any deviation other way likely means that storm is deviated east/west of forecast.
As many have stated before, if you are in harms way in the cone, get the hell out. I have ridden out Cat 3 storms, and had wished I hadn't. Don't want to even guess what a Cat 4/5 would be like.
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28 Aug 2021 4 AM update..
Storm hasn't really seemed to ramp up that much in the past 4 hours, but has separated itself from Cuba, and has resumed a pretty true NW track for now. The NHC states that Ida is moving NW at 16 mph and has still sustained winds of 80 MPH. If the track has moved it is minimal, with Morgan City being shown as target. Cone of Uncertainty has been placed between Vermillion bay to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. There doesn' appear to be any changes in previously reported watches or warnings.
Seems to be a tad less banding on the NW/SW quadrants , while having at the same time strongest convection . One positive observation though, is that (though subject to change) the storm does npt particularly look very large yet, tropical storm winds do not extend more than 100 miles in any quadrant.
Needless to say, preparations should be pretty much be over in warned area.. There are parts of SE Louisana that may start to see conditons detiorate very late tonight, or early tommorrow morning.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/100304_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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Aug 28 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ida churned toward the U.S. Gulf coast on Saturday, forecast to gather strength in coming hours and prompting evacuations of flood-prone New Orleans neighborhoods and oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.
Forecasters said it could make U.S. landfall as a dangerous Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, generating winds nearing 140 miles per hour (225 kph), heavy downpours and a tidal surge that could plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline under several feet of water.
Ida battered Cuba on Friday and by early Saturday it was carrying top winds of around 80 mph (129 kph) as it headed northwest, the National Hurricane Center said. The NHC expected the storm to intensify rapidly before coming ashore by late Sunday. ...
Full story at Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-gulf-coast-braces-hurricane-ida-after-cuba-takes-hit-2021-08-28/)
On Friday, news outlets reported that the New Orleans mayor said there was no time to evacuate. They've known about this storm for days. What the heck.
https://twitter.com/FOX8NOLA/status/1431568786390495232
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https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431592292578729984
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7AM update...
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
700 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
...IDA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 85.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
===========================================================
Like I mentioned before we are are the point where you basically have to count N's and W's, versus what is expected on NHC track. In the past 3 hours, the storm center clicked .4 increments North Lat, and .5 West long. Since the path up to near landfall is pretty much true NW (315 degrees). Putting it simply more N's than W's favors Lake Charles, More W's than N's favors Mississsippi.
Still no distinictive open eye yet. I expect that the change as this thing ramps up later today. Infrared scan is showing sonce concentric banding, so that might be a precursor of some rapid strenghthening. One highlight I don't hear any mets discussing though, is about the ULL sititng off the south Louisiana coast. That thing was supposed to die, or start dying while moving west. Well that thing has about a 100 mile diameter area of convection right off the coast, and loops aren't showing it moving that awfully mucn west. If it persists, and I could envision storm path slightly shifting westward.
Within the next few hours, we should see the first actual impact on U.S. with some of the early feeder bands (according to vis radar) approaching the AL coast.
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Just found this thread.
Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.
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Just found this thread.
Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.
NOLA is deep in the cone. All depends on the path, and how strong Ida gets hitting the coast. Based on NHC core wind estimates here are my guessimates of the extremes.
(1) Best Case Scenario- Far west path- Cone hits Vermillion Bay. Winds they would see would be strong T.S ... 50-70 mph. Storm surge of maybe 5-7 feet. Rainfall- ??? Really tough, since being on the dirty side of the storm estimates can be all over the map. But they still would consideably less than a direct hit of just east of storm passing.
(2) Worst case scenario- Direct hit. That far inland as a Cat 4 at the coast? 115 mph to 120 mph is not out of the question. Catastrophic damage much like what you saw last year in Lake Charles with Laura last year. And of course that does not take in account if the levees don't hold. Storm surge? They are expecting 10-15 surge at the coast. It could conceivably be near or a little less than that in NOLA.
And finally, when you check NHC's charts for wind probability for NOLA... Here are the odds at the last advisory.
>39 MPH- 93% chance
>58 MPH- 67% chance
>74 MPH (Hurricane)- 39% chance
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https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1431610059201695745
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NOLA is deep in the cone. All depends on the path, and how strong Ida gets hitting the coast. Based on NHC core wind estimates here are my guessimates of the extremes.
(1) Best Case Scenario- Far west path- Cone hits Vermillion Bay. Winds they would see would be strong T.S ... 50-70 mph. Storm surge of maybe 5-7 feet. Rainfall- ??? Really tough, since being on the dirty side of the storm estimates can be all over the map. But they still would consideably less than a direct hit of just east of storm passing.
(2) Worst case scenario- Direct hit. That far inland as a Cat 4 at the coast? 115 mph to 120 mph is not out of the question. Catastrophic damage much like what you saw last year in Lake Charles with Laura last year. And of course that does not take in account if the levees don't hold. Storm surge? They are expecting 10-15 surge at the coast. It could conceivably be near or a little less than that in NOLA.
And finally, when you check NHC's charts for wind probability for NOLA... Here are the odds at the last advisory.
>39 MPH- 93% chance
>58 MPH- 67% chance
>74 MPH (Hurricane)- 39% chance
Thanks @catfish1957
It won’t be another Katrina but it still can be bad.
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Thanks @catfish1957
It won’t be another Katrina but it still can be bad.
If the storm behaves like it is forecasted...yes. OTOH, based on my worst case scenario, it could be considerably worse.
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https://twitter.com/WPLGLocal10/status/1431618446119391238
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https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1431620973678170114
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Anyone ready for a tad of good tropical news?
Tropical Depression 10 has formed about 500-600 miles of the Lesser Antilles.
Why good news? It's heading northward. The great news is the Cape Verde season waves/TD/Storms are now seeing lower latitude steering currents that are taking them to the North Atlantic instead of toward the Caribbean or U.S Atlantic coast. Of course this could change, but for now I think the threat to the U.S. for Cape Verde storms has been minizmized, maybe by at least 3 weeks to a month.
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10 AM advisory....
NHC has honed in to a tighter cone. Hurricane watches have been discontinued from Intercoastal to Cameron. Hurricane warnings now from Intercoastal to LA/MS border. Expected strength at landfall 130 mph. One interesting tidbit from the last advisory is that when Ida landfalls, they only expect the field of hurricane force winds to be 60 miles in diameter. To me that seems alwfully small for a Catergory 4 storm.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
...IDA EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SOON...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 86.1W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431636969419952133
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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431636969419952133
That is an incredibly narrow cone this far out. Kudos to the NHC if they got it right.
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Daniel Chaitin
@danielchaitin7
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1h
Hurricane #Ida could be a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall, according to AccuWeather
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Daniel Chaitin
@danielchaitin7
·
1h
Hurricane #Ida could be a Category 5 storm before it makes landfall, according to AccuWeather
None of the 15 Intensity models predict it, but I guess anythings possible.
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_intensity_latest.png)
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Based on reports on the ground...lots of LA plates are moving like the Taliban taking Kabul coming into FL. Hotels and AirbNb's sold out in the Panhandle over night.
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(https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2021/08/28/16/47211753-9935571-image-a-90_1630166240662.jpg)
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1 PM NHC Public Advisory. Rapid strenghtening underway... 100 mph and growing.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
...IDA INTENSIFYING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama border
* Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mobile Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana
* Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border
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Hurricane Ida Updates: After Hitting Cuba, Storm Heads Toward U.S.
Ida is expected to strike Louisiana on Sunday, the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, possibly as a Category 4 storm.
Read our latest coverage of Hurricane Ida.
Live updates here: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/08/28/us/hurricane-ida-updates
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(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/DCT_SPECIAL38_1280x720.jpg?crop=16:9&width=980&format=pjpg&auto=webp&quality=60)
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1431675457930293250
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431673076039786502
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1431674146577174535
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https://mobile.twitter.com/FEMARegion6/status/1431640040753541123
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https://mobile.twitter.com/StBGov/status/1431668150169374724
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https://mobile.twitter.com/ARCLouisiana/status/1431662932803428354
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https://twitter.com/SenJohnKennedy/status/1431672166525833224
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https://mobile.twitter.com/RedStickReady/status/1431663132087365632
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Storm has incredibly stayed on this 315 degree trajectionary since it was in the vicinty of Cuba.
I am wondering if what Ida may start following is a phenomenon that I call the Gilbert Effect. Those who watch hurricanes may remember that monster back in 1988. It was so strong and powerful that it defied normal climatological and oceanic influences like highs, lows and steering currents. That storm took made an exact bee line from the Caribbean to the Mexican coast.
Forecasters at the time, thought the storm (esp. since it was in Sep) would be drawn northwestward by early fall lows, and the general corilois effect toward a Texas landfall. It never happened. Gilbert had a mind of his own, and hit Mexico.
Since the storm is showing similar trajectory persistence, I am wondering if there will be much deviation from the true NW path. If this ends up being the case, Landfall would be 40-50 miles east of the present projection, putting the Houma area more in play with the bullseye instead of Morgan City. One other issue, is the path, is will be significantly impact NOLA more... Wind and surge.
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https://twitter.com/KPRC2Khambrel/status/1431676901882478598
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We have noticed a lot of Louisianans in our SE Houston area looking for places to stay.
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I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder. Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20212401741_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg)
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To give you a feel and scale of how quickly this storm has grown. At this exact moment there are feeder bands being felt from Ida in Port Arthur, Texas and Cape Coral, Florida.
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Just viewed WWL's hurricane update feed. NHC forcasting 100 mph winds in Baton Rouge.
IF that pans out, that would be the strongest storm in BR's history. Beating both the 1947 storm and Gustav.
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I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder. Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20212401741_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg)
Looks exactly like Camille.
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Looks exactly like Camille.
Camille is the storm that first peaked my interest watching hurricanes. I can remember as a 12 year old kid, watching the local weathermen helplessly reporting the storm, and what they thought would happen. You know how bad our forecasting tools were back then? This meteorologist showed his chalkboard map, and the cone was set between Pensacola and Houston. Basically a 1/3 of the US gulf coast And... this just a few days out.
(https://www.weather.gov/images/mob/events/camille/Camille_Sat_Aug16.jpg)
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4 PM update. Winds are now 105 mph sustained...... Moving NW @ 16 mph..... Track might be a hair furhter to the east...... Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and NOLA... all still in cone.
Public Advisory.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
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10 PM Advisory...
First Kudos to the NHC... Projected landfall has not deviated over 50 miles for the entire run. Second... hopefull there are few or no stragglers near the coast as thing approaches. Widespread storm surge of near 15 feet is expected all the way from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi. I am hearing all kind of debate and speculation of how strong this storm will be at landfall. Generally between 115 and 140 mph sustained winds. One map feature that may be some good news inland, that I don't see anyone noticing. There is a tongue of very dry air about 300 miles by 150 miles stretching from about Ft. Smith, Arkansas to Witchita Falls Texas. If that storm can encounter some of that dry air, it might lessen some of the inland flooding that is expected.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
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29 Aug 2021 4A update
Ida strengthens and is approaching SE Louisiana coast, toward Houma/Morgan City area.
NHC advisory
HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 89.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT
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888cryingkitty Ida is now the top story in the country. I’m hoping it can diminish to a 3 or two but it really looks catastrophic.
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This will definitely test the levee upgrades in NOLA. Zero excuses for anyone to be there, however.
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US Gulf Coast residents flee 'extremely dangerous' Hurricane Ida
Aug 28 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ida intensified over warm Gulf of Mexico waters on Saturday, prompting tens of thousands to flee coastal areas, while President Joe Biden pledged aid to help states quickly recover once the storm has passed.
Forecasters said Ida could make a U.S. landfall on Sunday night as an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, generating winds of 140 miles per hour (225 kph), heavy downpours and a tidal surge that could plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline under several feet of water.
On Saturday evening Ida was about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, packing top winds of 105 miles per hour (169 kph) and aiming for the Louisiana coast, the National Hurricane Center said.
https://news.trust.org/item/20210828160737-fu09y
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Live thread
https://youtu.be/3D7pQxnOIjI
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https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1431931377415503872
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https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/status/1431936334281719809
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I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder. Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20212401741_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.jpg)
They look pretty from orbit, but they are nasty at ground level.
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https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1431919579345924102
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https://twitter.com/itsSpencerBrown/status/1431959365582458883
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7/8AM Advisories from the NHC.
It doesn't get much worse. Sustained winds are now 150 mph. Cat 5 (Greater than 156 mph) is not out of the question, since the eye still has a few hours left before landfall. Houma again still seems to be the target, but this large storm has about an 80 mile diameter wind field of over hurricane force winds, damage will not just be local. Let's all pray that there are no people near the SE Louisana coast this morning. Movement has stubbonrly stayed on a NW track since Cuba. The Northward jaunt has been resisted, for reasons I believe I stated a few updates ago.
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
800 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...800 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...
An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a wind
gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 930 mb (27.46 in).
SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 89.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
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Stay safe Briefers..please check in when you can...
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https://twitter.com/MikeFirstAlert/status/1431975363618512896
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https://twitter.com/MikeFirstAlert/status/1431975363618512896
**nononono* **nononono* **nononono*
Radars are showing frequent lightning strikes within the eyewall, which is is often indicative of a storm getting stronger. Cat 5, and >156 mph? Not out of the question.
If there are folks on Grand Isle, they are facing 15 foot storm surge. Very very sad.
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Landfall looks to be about an hour or so away. Based on radar imagery, looks like Terribonne Parish between Morgan City and Houma. IF the path holds true, the most direct town in path appears to be this one. Dulac, Louisana, with a most recent population of 2,458
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana)
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10AM advisory. Pretty much speaks for itself. Let's all hope and pray this thing now rapidly weakens and spares as many people inland as possible. As far as the larger towns in that area, seems the ones getting the brunt seem to be Houma, Thibodeaux, and Morgan City. Storm has slowed down from 16 mph to 13 mph. That is not a good trend.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA NEARING THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 90.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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Landfall looks to be about an hour or so away. Based on radar imagery, looks like Terribonne Parish between Morgan City and Houma. IF the path holds true, the most direct town in path appears to be this one. Dulac, Louisana, with a most recent population of 2,458
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana)
This hurricane is a monster and as you had posted up thread, it could pack a punch of a Cat 5!
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I have mentioned a number of towns and areas that are going to see likely catastrophic effects. If you have family or friends in these areas, please closely monitor their well being.
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Initial landfall in the next few minutes. Based on NOLA radar, it looks to be a marsh penninsula at the terminus of La. State Hwy 1.
And... the area of Grand Isle (mentioned above) looks like it might be on the edge the NE quadrant of the eye wall. A true worst case scenario. The article earlier said people stayed. I sure hope not, because they are on a barrier island facing 15 foot storm surge and 150 mph winds. I fear the worst.
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Hurricane Ida live updates: Ida may be 1 mph short of being Category 5 hurricane
https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/?id=79696173
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSJacksonMS/status/1432001128556896256
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1431999182122803211
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11 AM Final update before landfall.... Looks like peak strength may be 150 mph, just 6 mph off making Cat 5. It could still strengthen while in the marshes, but I am guessing it has topped.
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 89 mph (143 km/h) and a wind
gust of 104 mph (167 km/h).
Within the past hour, sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a
gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.
A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.0 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.
A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yatcht
Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.4 feet
above mean higher high water, which is an approximation of
inundation in that area.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 90.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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https://mobile.twitter.com/nolaready/status/1431988504494551043
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https://mobile.twitter.com/FEMARegion6/status/1431960854220652544
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Initial landfall in the next few minutes. Based on NOLA radar, it looks to be a marsh penninsula at the terminus of La. State Hwy 1.
And... the area of Grand Isle (mentioned above) looks like it might be on the edge the NE quadrant of the eye wall. A true worst case scenario. The article earlier said people stayed. I sure hope not, because they are on a barrier island facing 15 foot storm surge and 150 mph winds. I fear the worst.
They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH. This, according to them, is good news.
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They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH. This, according to them, is good news.
NHC reported 13 mph earlier, but realize that these storms as they approach the coast have a tendency to wobble which can sometimes fool the forecasters in reporting forward speed. The million dollar question now, is how the storm will respond to the Bermuda high. Sometimes these storms as they start dealing with latitudinal corrolis effects and curving around pressure gradients will tend to slow and turn. How that high interacts with the storm will tell how the forward speed reacts. Ideally (speed wise) the storm will continue it's 315ish vector and slowly turn north. If we see a sudden 0/360 instead, I'd start getting concerned with slowing and stalling. One point that has been missed..... Early in the track, the NHC predicted a northward turn generally about a 100 miles off shore. It didn't happen.
Though not forecasted, I would not be surprised to see a more westward tendency toward track that we are seeing. Does that put Alexandria in play? Not really sure, it will be that drastic.
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The very dangerous northern eyewall of Hurricane Ida is moving onshore along the southeast Louisiana coast, according to the 12 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center.
The eyewall is the most dangerous part of a hurricane, which contains the highest winds.
The storm continues to pack winds of 150 mph with higher gusts and is still an extremely dangerous, Category 4 hurricane.
The center of Ida was located around 25 miles from Grand Isle, Louisiana. A wind gust of 104 mph was recently reported at Southwest Pass, Louisiana.
Ida will be making landfall over the next hour or so when the center of the eye is halfway over the coast. Extreme winds and surge will accompany landfall over the next several hours.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-ida-updates-08-29-21/index.html
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(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32fe2d7c87e0950c2217281dc7a85ca45820ebbbc4ad8bfb4d42fcc87c250300.jpg)
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They're reporting on the Weather Channel that the storm doesn't appear to be slowing down ....it's still moving at 15 MPH. This, according to them, is good news.
Hmmm... looking at the NHC forecast. They have it at 7PM at just west at NOLA. At 7AM they have it just east of Natchez, MS. That's about a 100 miles movement over a 12 hour period or.... estimate of 8 mph
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WDSU in NOLA's radar loop gives an excellent view of the storm. At least until it gets knocked out by the storm
https://www.wdsu.com/weather/radar# (https://www.wdsu.com/weather/radar#)
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[
The center of Ida was located around 25 miles from Grand Isle, Louisiana. A wind gust of 104 mph was recently reported at Southwest Pass, Louisiana.
Those exact cooridinates put Grand Isle on the NE Corner of the eyewall.
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https://twitter.com/axios/status/1432025393050042368
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https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1432025928356487173
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Hmmm... looking at the NHC forecast. They have it at 7PM at just west at NOLA. At 7AM they have it just east of Natchez, MS. That's about a 100 miles movement over a 12 hour period or.... estimate of 8 mph
Thanks for the update.
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Noon NHC update.....
Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1155 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA...
NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicates that the eye of Ida made
landfall along the southeastern coast of Louisiana near Port
Fourchon around 1155 AM CDT (1655 UTC). Data from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar data indicate that
Ida's maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 150
mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 930 mb (27.46 in).
Within the past hour, sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a
gust to 67 mph (107 km/h) were reported at Lakefront Airport in New
Orleans.
A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge in Shell Beach, Louisiana,
recently reported a water level of 6.4 feet above mean higher high
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area.
A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club,
Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 5.5 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.
SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SW OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
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EMS in NO has been suspended.
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CNN just repotted it’s the 16th anniversary of Katrina hitting New Orleans….
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Yesterday, i mentioned the fact there was a pretty strong dry tongue of air mass AR-OK-TX. I am thinking that may be why we are seeing less than normal precipitation on the west side of the storm. Granted the east is aliway wetter, but outside the area of the storm, but there really isn't alot of strong rain bands on the west side
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Hurricane Ida live updates: Ida may be 1 mph short of being Category 5 hurricane
https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/?id=79696173
I think it's only 'just' that in this day of "...everybody gets a participation trophy", that IDA be awarded CAT 5 Status. :shrug:
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https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/1432066427612286976
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Based on 3PM advisory, looks like Houma will be hit within about an hour. Houma is a pretty large town... 30K people, and will be seeing sustained winds of at least 130 mph. This will be the 1st larger population center getting the brunt of the worst of the storm.
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Levees topped in St. Bernard Parish. There's a refinery in Meraux that got hit bad during Katrina. Rising water levels can cause oil tanks sitting on the ground to become dislodged and float away.
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Levees topped in St. Bernard Parish. There's a refinery in Meraux that got hit bad during Katrina. Rising water levels can cause oil tanks sitting on the ground to become dislodged and float away.
Remembering your screen name, I am guessing you have some connections to NOLA or S. Louisana. Hope you and / or your family members, friends are making out alright. Pretty soon, we will be seeing some footage from Houma. It is not going to be pretty.
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Last 3 frames of the radar loop is seeming to indicate that (finally) expected northward turn of the storm. Or... maybe an extended wobble. We will see.
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4PM Advisory. Seems the Northward rurn and slowing (now 10 mph) I was expecting is panning out. That does not favor NOLA, but may lessen impact on Baton Rouge.
Storm is remaining intact well, and sustained winds are still 130 mph. I did think we would see more weakening at this point.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...IDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 90.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES
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Hurricane Ida remains category 4 storm and moving even slower
https://www.wdsu.com/article/hurricane-ida-louisiana-category-4/37423862
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https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/status/1432098829193601033
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This looks as bad as it gets....
https://mobile.twitter.com/StBGov/status/1432092144341237766
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https://mobile.twitter.com/StBGov/status/1432023410226438149
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https://mobile.twitter.com/StBGov/status/1432049245637521415
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NOLA.com
@NOLAnews
· 4m
JUST IN: Hurricane Ida has left all of New Orleans without power due to "catastrophic transmission damage," according to Entergy New Orleans.
https://nola.com/news/hurricane
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It appears the worst is now along the Mississippi river between Luling and Laplace.
Pumps are going to be a problem in New Orleans if the power is out.
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David Hammer
@davidhammerWWL
·
34m
BREAKING @WWLTV
: New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board has lost all three feeder lines from Entergy. That means the agency lost 12 megawatts of 60-cycle power to run its newer drainage pumps and is left with only Turbine 6 to make 15 megawatts in-house. #HurricaneIda
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David Hammer
@davidhammerWWL
·
34m
BREAKING @WWLTV
: New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board has lost all three feeder lines from Entergy. That means the agency lost 12 megawatts of 60-cycle power to run its newer drainage pumps and is left with only Turbine 6 to make 15 megawatts in-house. #HurricaneIda
I moved back to Texas from that hellhole in 92, the new and improved levees, paid for by all US, will be breached also.
Is in G_d's wrath or another dem corrupt political system, is for you to decide.
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I moved back to Texas from that hellhole in 92, the new and improved levees, paid for by all US, will be breached also.
Is in G_d's wrath or another dem corrupt political system, is for you to decide.
Let's see how Joe is going to f___ this one up.
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https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1432152400907931649
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Let's see how Joe is going to f___ this one up.
It doesn't matter. He'll just lie like he always does. It's the liberal way! Lie, deflect, blame and never ever accept responsibility.
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I moved back to Texas from that hellhole in 92, the new and improved levees, paid for by all US, will be breached also.
Is in G_d's wrath or another dem corrupt political system, is for you to decide.
Many yrs ago, I had an elderly neighbor that had grown up on the Mississippi. The farmers depended on the annual floods to bring nutrients to their farm land. They hated the thought of levees being built to prevent the floods. So some of the early levees were dynamited.
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Let's see how Joe is going to f___ this one up.
No matter what he does, he'll blame Trump. Just Watch.
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FEMA's top priority right now is relocating Afghan refugees.
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bidet will be making his 16 year pilgrimage to LA (NOT to be confused with Lower ALABAMA) soon enough. It makes for a great photo op.
He won't catch half the hell GWB did.
(https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2005/08/images/20050831_p083105pm-0117jas-515h.jpg)
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He'll put Comealot in charge of sucking all that water out to save Nawlins within a month, wait and see, much to her chagrin.
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. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A9SXZ4W_i5g)
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https://twitter.com/JaredWAFB/status/1432162007827034112
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https://twitter.com/ron_fournier/status/1432164485884747780
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Thanks @Hoodat I needed that, and I was borne there.
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https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1432164160415092736
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https://twitter.com/longpig_tim/status/1432156474898276356
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16 WAPT News
@16WAPTNews
·
27m
Confirmed: the main transmission tower that feeds New Orleans has collapsed into the Mississippi River
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Prioritize.
(http://forums.wakeboarder.com/files/9_164.jpg)
Go get Beer.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1432176947702943747
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Laplace is at 15 inches of rain, and still coming down. Greater New Orleans around 8-10 inches.
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Laplace is at 15 inches of rain, and still coming down. Greater New Orleans around 8-10 inches.
All that Laplace rain will head downstream to the Bonnet Carre. Someone will have to make the decision whether it continues to N.O. I would be heading to the West Bank.
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All that Laplace rain will head downstream to the Bonnet Carre. Someone will have to make the decision whether it continues to N.O. I would be heading to the West Bank.
My little sister is named after that causeway, Bonnie Carre.
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10 PM update... Catastrophic rain event shaping up east of storm center. 105 mph storm still after nearly 12 hours after landfall. That is pretty amazing. Wind wise, LA is pretty lucky right now, as Ida has basically almost equally threaded the needle between NOLA and Baton Rouge. Seeing evidence of some decent SW-NE sheer, as some feeder bands are spirally out as far as North Alabama and North Georgia. Seeing some dry air intrustion into the SW quadrant of storm too. Hopefully that will unfuel this monster is squelch least some of the massive convection
From modeling runs, and NHC slowing the forecast path, I am afraid that starting tomorrow the really big story is going to be flooding
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021
...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES
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NOLA.com
@NOLAnews
· 4m
JUST IN: Hurricane Ida has left all of New Orleans without power due to "catastrophic transmission damage," according to Entergy New Orleans.
https://nola.com/news/hurricane
Whoa!!!!!....
Those 69KV 100 foot metal poles aren't exactly base stock in the Utility store yard. No telling how long that is going to take to replace it.
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The parishes south and west of New Orleans are probably in shambles this morning. Water rises would have been significant all over the swamps, and I suspect there is unprecedented wind damage from Grand Isle to Laplace.
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https://twitter.com/TPostMillennial/status/1432405323227271177
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https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1432406509481234443
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https://twitter.com/RepGarretGraves/status/1432406089295925255
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https://twitter.com/RepGarretGraves/status/1432406089295925255
I thought all we would see would be piers and slabs.
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https://twitter.com/RyanAFournier/status/1432420075999477767
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Boy! Ah say boy! Tell us what's happenin' with dat dere hurrahcane!
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https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1432425308443983872
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https://twitter.com/tornadotrackers/status/1432393193669210115
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Weather
·
LIVE
Hurricane Ida downgraded to tropical storm after knocking out power in New Orleans
Ida, which has weakened to a strong tropical storm, has brought extreme winds, heavy rain, dangerous flash flooding and storm surges as it moved across southeastern Louisiana on Monday morning. Entergy confirmed in a statement that due to "catastrophic damage" to the transmission system, all of New Orleans is without power. On Sunday, Hurricane Ida hit Louisiana as a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Reports of the hurricane overtopping a levee in Plaquemines Parish prompted the National Weather Service to instruct people in the area to immediately seek higher ground and a flash flood warning is in effect for New Orleans. Keep it here for the latest.
The Atlantic hurricane season began on Tuesday, June 1, and ends on Tuesday, November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) encourages people residing in states along the Atlantic coast to download the FEMA mobile app and learn about how to prepare for hurricanes by visiting Ready.gov and Listo.gov. There is a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to NOAA.
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Matt Stoller
@matthewstoller
·
5m
Pretty astonishing the levees in New Orleans seem to have held against a category 4 hurricane. Gold star for government competence.
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https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1432425308443983872
And it isn't even nightfall. No social commentary on my behalf
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BREAKING NEWS: Man is killed by an alligator in Louisiana after warning beasts were lurking in Hurricane Ida flood waters
Woman in Slidell, Louisiana called police saying husband was attacked by gator
Animal bit man's arm off, causing him to die; Victim's body hasn't been found
Public officials warned that alligators could be lurking in flood waters
Rescue crews are searching for stranded residents after Ida tore through region
By Ariel Zilber For Dailymail.com
Published: 20:49 EDT, 30 August 2021 | Updated: 21:16 EDT, 30 August 2021
A man was reportedly killed in an alligator attack after the animal bit off his arm while swimming in flood waters caused by Hurricane Ida on Monday.
The attack took place in the town of Slidell in St. Tammany Parish, Louisiana, according to WWL-TV. The victim's body has not been found.
The man's wife called police and told investigators that an alligator attacked her husband.
more
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9941817/Man-killed-alligator-Louisiana-warning-beasts-lurking-Ida-flood-waters.html?ito=social-twitter_mailonline
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Galliano. This is where I used to fly out of.
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/27/7270001a-09bb-11ec-8fca-ef4aafbe0b3d/612d1b8a7d5b7.image.jpg)
(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/7/2e/72e1ca38-09bb-11ec-ae58-d72635153454/612d1b8b3f49e.image.jpg)
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Hurricane Ida’s sweltering aftermath: No power, no water, no gasoline
(https://who13.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2021/08/hurricane-ida.jpeg?w=1000&h=667&crop=1)
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, people wait in line for gas Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021, in New Orleans, La. (AP Photo/Eric Gay
y: Kevin McGill, Chevel Johnson and Melinda Deslatte, Associated Press
Posted: Aug 31, 2021 / 07:25 PM CDT / Updated: Aug 31, 2021 / 07:25 PM CDT
In the aftermath of Hurricane Ida, people wait in line for gas Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2021, in New Orleans, La. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of Louisianans sweltered in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida on Tuesday with no electricity, no tap water, precious little gasoline and no clear idea of when things might improve.
Long lines that wrapped around the block formed at the few gas stations that had fuel and generator power to pump it. People cleared rotting food out of refrigerators. Neighbors shared generators and borrowed buckets of swimming pool water to bathe or to flush toilets.
“We have a lot of work ahead of us and no one is under the illusion that this is going to be a short process,” Gov. John Bel Edwards said as the cleanup and rebuilding began across the soggy region in the oppressive late-summer heat.
New Orleans officials announced seven places around the city where people could get a meal and sit in air conditioning. The city was also using 70 transit buses as cooling sites and will have drive-thru food, water and ice distribution locations set up on Wednesday, Mayor LaToya Cantrell said.
Cantrell also ordered a nighttime curfew Tuesday, calling it an effort to prevent crime after Hurricane Ida devastated the power system and left the city in darkness. Police Chief Shaun Ferguson said there had been some arrests for stealing.
more
https://who13.com/news/hurricane-idas-sweltering-aftermath-no-power-no-water-no-gasoline/?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1432872081641795596
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Can't find a hotel room anywhere near Lafayette.
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We've been getting the remnants of Ida since last night and currently this morning, and expect 4"-6" of rain in total.
NBC New York
@NBCNewYork
·
39m
What's left of Ida is expected to make it to dump a month's worth of rain across the region. Here's what you need to know before the worst of the storm system moves in tonight:
(https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/1432299663344951301/xcnwxt7Z?format=png&name=small)
9:00 AM · Sep 1, 2021
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One of the animal shelters I support is down there rescuing animals and bringing them back here.
I saw they already have about a dozens dogs they’re in the process of bring to their shelter.
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https://nypost.com/2021/09/02/at-least-seven-people-killed-overnight-in-nyc-in-historic-flooding/
At least eight people killed overnight in NYC in historic flooding
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NYC Toddler Among 14 Dead as Ida Devastates Tri-State With Historic Rain, Tornado, Flash Floods
At least 14 people died, including a New York City toddler, and tens of thousands were overwhelmed by floods as the remnants of Hurricane Ida devastated the tri-state area overnight with historic rainfall, at least one tornado and savage winds.
Eight of the confirmed fatalities were in two boroughs -- a 2-year-old boy, 45-, 86- and 48-year-old women and 50- and 22-year-old men in Queens and a 66-year-old man in Brooklyn. Five more were confirmed dead in Elizabeth, New Jersey -- all residents of the Oakwood Plaza Apartments complex on Irvington Avenue.
A mayoral spokeswoman had no details on how they died but noted fire department headquarters nearby were under 8 feet of water. Search and rescue teams are continuing efforts to determine where there may be additional casualties inside.
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/at-least-2-dead-as-ida-batters-tri-state-with-historic-rain-flooding-and-tornadoes/3252554/
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NYC Toddler Among 14 Dead as Ida Devastates Tri-State With Historic Rain, Tornado, Flash Floods
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/weather/at-least-2-dead-as-ida-batters-tri-state-with-historic-rain-flooding-and-tornadoes/3252554/
My whole family is flooded out because all the roads are flooded. They should be good in the next day or so. Also tree branches all over.
My sister’s apartment had major flood damage. They’ll have to fix a wall and a ceiling. At least as she said “no one died, and it’s just replacing stuff.”
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Question for anybody in the affected areas (btw, hope you are safe).
My local news cut away for Biden's blah blah blah today and I heard a small portion.
He was bragging how he was pressuring insurance companies because unless people were under a mandatory evac order they would not pay.
Is this true? Is this something to do with flood insurance? Was he just trying to go "corn pop" on the insurance companies?
I've tried to research on line and can't find a definitive answer. I even called my insurance company and they were like ?????.
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I wouldn't expect that many of them have flood insurance, in NY, as floods there are not a common occurrence, AFAIK.