The Briefing Room
State Chapters => Texas => Topic started by: mystery-ak on August 01, 2018, 03:23:02 pm
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Poll: Senate race between Cruz, O'Rourke a dead heat
By Max Greenwood - 08/01/18 11:02 AM EDT
The Texas Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) is neck and neck, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
The 2018 Texas Lyceum Poll showed Cruz leading O'Rourke by a hair — 41-39 percent among likely voters. That's well within the survey's margin of error of 4.67 percentage points.
That's a particularly tight margin for Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in three decades.
The findings come weeks after O'Rourke, a three-term congressman, reported a staggering $10.4 million fundraising haul in the second quarter of the 2018 cycle, bringing his cash-on-hand to just under $14 million.
That's far more than the incumbent Cruz, who raised about $4.1 million in the second quarter and has about $9.3 million in cash on hand, Federal Election Commission filings show.
Texas has normally been a reliably red state, voting for President Trump over his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton by 9 points in 2016.
more
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399858-poll-senate-race-between-cruz-orourke-a-dead-heat (http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399858-poll-senate-race-between-cruz-orourke-a-dead-heat)
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I've never heard of this poll. Is this a real thing in Texas?
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I've never heard of this poll. Is this a real thing in Texas?
N=1,178 ADULTS
Any more questions?
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I've never heard of this poll. Is this a real thing in Texas?
Should we Czech the Pole to see if it's German(e)?
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I've never heard of this poll. Is this a real thing in Texas?
Sadly, it is non-partisan. I think Ted's handling of his relationship with Trump backfired in both directions. Pissed off his base, and those who were lukewarm about him too. Add the frothing dim Trump hating faction into the equation.
Still.... I just don't see my state putting a dim in. It will be closer than we thought though.
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If the fake Hispanic wins, I'm putting all my efforts into secession.
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Always work like you are 20 points down.
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This is a telephone poll of 1178 ADULTS! Not registered voters or likely voters but adults! It is ENTIRELY worthless!
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I've never heard of this poll. Is this a real thing in Texas?
Yep, they've been around 40 years and are pretty accurate. The guy who runs it now, Brad Morrison, is a Republican.
https://texaslyceum.org/texas-lyceum-poll
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This is a telephone poll of 1178 ADULTS! Not registered voters or likely voters but adults! It is ENTIRELY worthless!
When you read the poll narrative, they claim they are enumerating "Likely" and "Registered" voters...
Reference Questions 9-12.
OTOH.... I still don't believe Cruz is behind though
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Paddy O'Furniture wins Senate. TX turns blue.
Saint's begorrah!
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Yep, they've been around 40 years and are pretty accurate.
The poll, conducted by the nonpartisan Texas Lyceum before Tuesday's debate, found 49 percent of likely voters supporting Abbott and 40 percent picking Davis.
Davis claims momentum as Abbott touts $30M in war chest
https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Davis-claims-momentum-as-Abbott-touts-30M-in-war-5795281.php (https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Davis-claims-momentum-as-Abbott-touts-30M-in-war-5795281.php)
October 1, 2014
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2014 General Election
11/4/2014
http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist175_state.htm (http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist175_state.htm)
Governor
Greg Abbott 59.27%
Wendy R. Davis 38.90%
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The poll, conducted by the nonpartisan Texas Lyceum before Tuesday's debate, found 49 percent of likely voters supporting Abbott and 40 percent picking Davis.
Davis claims momentum as Abbott touts $30M in war chest
https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Davis-claims-momentum-as-Abbott-touts-30M-in-war-5795281.php (https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Davis-claims-momentum-as-Abbott-touts-30M-in-war-5795281.php)
October 1, 2014
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2014 General Election
11/4/2014
http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist175_state.htm (http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist175_state.htm)
Governor
Greg Abbott 59.27%
Wendy R. Davis 38.90%
They had Davis's numbers almost exact. I seem to recall Abbot ended up picking up more undecided voters than everyone was speculating.
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They had Davis's numbers almost exact. I seem to recall Abbot ended up picking up more undecided voters than everyone was speculating.
From the same link:
Republicans flagged a number of problems with the Lyceum poll, starting with its finding that 48 percent of Texans approve of President Barack Obama — several points above the national average in a solidly red state. Sullivan said the Lyceum has a “long track record of significantly overstating Democratic numbers in Texas.â€
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They had Davis's numbers almost exact. I seem to recall Abbot ended up picking up more undecided voters than everyone was speculating.
Poll results even worse for the Lt Governor's race the same year, as the poll said Patrick would receive only 47% and yet got 58.1%.
In 2016, it estimated only 42% for Trump and he would up getting 52.2%
I would not think that is "are pretty accurate".