The Briefing Room
Briefing Room Polls (Guests Welcome!) => The Briefingroom Polls => Topic started by: corbe on October 31, 2022, 04:52:50 pm
-
The 2022 Midterm Elections: What the Historical Data Suggest.
History suggests Democratic loss of control of both House and Senate.
By John T. Woolley
In the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President's party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats. The president’s party gained seats in the House only three times, but gained seats in the Senate on six occasions. The president’s party has gained seats in both houses only twice.
The incumbent president’s ability to launch new major policy initiatives would be greatly weakened under divided government. If the Democrats lose control of either House, the Administration can expect to be the target of numerous disruptive congressional inquiries.
Using the data we discuss below (and provide here) we would expect Democratic seat losses of around 30 in the House and 3 in the Senate. There are large error bounds around these estimates. The prediction range includes the possibility of a narrow Democratic gain in the Senate, but loss of the majority in the House seems likely. Graphs below show the two-variable relationships.
Democrats have a 9 seat margin currently in the House (with four seats vacant) and the parties are tied in the Senate. A Democratic loss in the House of fewer than 12 seats would be very unexpected.
Like many midterm projections, these estimates are based on aggregated data. There is no measure of current national controversies (for example, abortion or Trump-related litigation controversies). Both will affect turnout. Nor do we have any explicit measure of conditions and candidates in specific elections. Turnout is likely to be larger than normal, and usually that would be expected to favor the Democrats.
<..snip..>
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest (https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest)
H/T @Lando Lincoln
-
:beer:
-
Senate: Gain 4
House: Gain 32
-
Senate: Gain 4
House: Gain 32
That's so close it's scary! It will actually be 33 in the house.
House will be 245 republican (40 in name only) 190 Democrat (aka Communist)
Senate will be 53 republican (5 in name only) 46 democrat one avowed Communist.
-
A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.
Remember this when you vote.
-
If "it's the economy, stupid" still holds up, Dems should get shellacked worse than anticipated.
The Dems domestic policies have economically harmed a large majority of Americans.
-
A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.
Remember this when you vote.
You forgot city and County governments.
-
Senate will be 53 republican (5 in name only) 46 democrat one avowed Communist.
Forty-five Democrats and two Communists. Sanders and King.
-
Republicans will plow the field... and then... nothing.
-
Republicans will plow the field... and then... nothing.
If history is a guide, yes but some in this new crop aren't going to play ball with that crowd. @roamer_1
-
If history is a guide, yes but some in this new crop aren't going to play ball with that crowd. @roamer_1
Even if that is true @Bigun , and Freedom Caucus grows by 25 or 30, it still has a long way to go to have numbers that give it real power inside the GOP... And what, 4 or 5 senators? That won't amount to a row of pins in the RINO GOP senate.
I'll take the win... but still, nothing.
-
A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.
Remember this when you vote.
Agreed. Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats. In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.
-
Even if that is true @Bigun , and Freedom Caucus grows by 25 or 30, it still has a long way to go to have numbers that give it real power inside the GOP... And what, 4 or 5 senators? That won't amount to a row of pins in the RINO GOP senate.
I'll take the win... but still, nothing.
You could be right @roamer_1 but I'm a bit more hopeful today than I was six months ago.
-
Agreed. Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats. In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.
And, believe it or not, THAT stuff is much more important than any of this federal cfrap.
-
You could be right @roamer_1 but I'm a bit more hopeful today than I was six months ago.
Hope always springs eternal @Bigun ... metered only by human nature.
Trust, but verify. :beer:
-
Agreed. Look for lots of action at the State level going forward as R's take more seats. In Arizona, redistricting has been very good for our side.
If it were TEA, I would be more optimistic. :shrug:
-
And, believe it or not, THAT stuff is much more important than any of this federal cfrap.
And that is the truth!
-
Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.
-
Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.
In vino, veritas. One hopes!
-
Okay, here’s the deal. Last November during Wisconsin’s annual deer hunting season - and in what may have been inspired or induced by bourbon - I made a small wager with my brother that the (R)’s would win back 40 seats. I’m sticking with that.
What was the wager?
-
What was the wager?
Friendly. 20 bucks.
-
My bro is a good guy. You can discuss and disagree and the conversation never becomes disagreeable. He lives his life as a conservative but he votes (D). I can’t explain it.
-
Being the optimist that I am ( *****rollingeyes*****), I think that DEMS will hold a majority in the Senate and the GOP will narrowly win a majority in the House.
I'm basing much of that opinion on the DEMS capabilities of stealing elections.
-
:2popcorn:
-
My bro is a good guy. You can discuss and disagree and the conversation never becomes disagreeable. He lives his life as a conservative but he votes (D). I can’t explain it.
Have you considered a DNA test? They may have switched babies at the hospital.
-
Have you considered a DNA test? They may have switched babies at the hospital.
There is always that one sibling that Mom dropped on their head.
-
RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R). They project 54 for the (R)’s.
-
Everybody remembers when Trump was down a fair amount around 10 days out, then absolutely surged in momentum to win.
I think that's what's happening here. The Dems refuse to yield the path they set themselves on, and their support is cratering.
-
There is always that one sibling that Mom dropped on their head.
What if you're an only child?
-
Everybody remembers when Trump was down a fair amount around 10 days out, then absolutely surged in momentum to win.
I think that's what's happening here. The Dems refuse to yield the path they set themselves on, and their support is cratering.
It's the media and the pollsters painting the numbers, I'll tell you what. Happens every time.
-
Now, please have the earth move under Patty Murray’s feet in Washington.
-
It's the media and the pollsters painting the numbers, I'll tell you what. Happens every time.
Which may come back to bite, because with everything being manipulated to look like Dan Rather 'too close to call' is going to drive right-of-center turnout.
-
Which may come back to bite, because with everything being manipulated to look like Dan Rather 'too close to call' is going to drive right-of-center turnout.
That's why they have been backing off the paint the last two weeks, letting it ease back to the real numbers... They have to in order to seem accurate and remain relevant.
They do it the same every time. Look at the TEA party - same thing.... A mighty tsunami that was not reported until the last month, and really not until the last 2 weeks.
Same with Tumpy... Didn't stand a chance all the way through summer... but all at once, right before the election, it started looking like a tossup... Pay it mind next election. You will see it.
-
Well there's also the problem of conservatives refusing to be polled.
I also really doubt conservatives start cooperating with pollsters as the election nears to explain the swing.
The numbers are just guesses at best.
-
RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R). They project 54 for the (R)’s.
And the Libertarian just dropped out of the AZ Senate race, and endorsed Blake Masters.
-
Well there's also the problem of conservatives refusing to be polled.
I also really doubt conservatives start cooperating with pollsters as the election nears to explain the swing.
The numbers are just guesses at best.
They've pretty much cornered themselves into a trap. There is so much media and swamp pressure to get Dem favored results, that conservatives won't participate anymore, and their false sampling creates fictional numbers.
Then the pollsters try and adjust for that the last week or two to keep their credibility, but it's too late for the Dems to change course as their fabricated support craters in real time.
It's actually a nice opening for conservatives to exploit.
-
(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ef6bdd6778ef19d74df8cae057413804adbb62a55b6a5ec6fc35e8dede4258d.jpg)
-
Now, please have the earth move under Patty Murray’s feet in Washington.
:yowsa: :amen:
-
RCP has just flipped the NH senate race to Bolduc (R). They project 54 for the (R)’s.
I cannot wait to vote next Tuesday, for Don Bolduc and every other Republican on the ballot. New Hampshire has had enough of the Democrats.
We've actually got a decent shot at seeing a GOP governor (as we have now), legislature (ditto), and two Republican congressional representatives and one Senator.
-
A friend of mine is suggesting the Illinois governorship is in play. I don’t believe it since everything is controlled by Cook County. But…
-
What's that rumbling going on? Could it be...
-
A friend of mine is suggesting the Illinois governorship is in play. I don’t believe it since everything is controlled by Cook County. But…
Illinois would be sweet; they've controlled that State since at least 60.
-
I cannot wait to vote next Tuesday, for Don Bolduc and every other Republican on the ballot. New Hampshire has had enough of the Democrats.
We've actually got a decent shot at seeing a GOP governor (as we have now), legislature (ditto), and two Republican congressional representatives and one Senator.
I wish I could get excited about voting. I just can't. I'll vote for DeSantis and my Rep, but I'm really not interested in any other races.
Here are our county's voter requirements -- nothing has changed. Notice that a Voter ID card is not required. One that really floors me is a "neighborhood association" ID. So, as long as you belong to an association, who cares if you're ILLEGAL?? Also, no worries, if you don't have the proper ID, you can vote using a provisional ballot.
Identification Requirements for Voting
General Election - November 8, 2022
When voting at an Early Voting site or on Election Day,
you will be asked to present a current and valid form of
identification that includes a photograph and signature,
for example, a Florida Driver License, or two separate
forms which together contain this information.
Approved forms of identification include:
• Military ID
• Veteran Health ID Card
• Debit or Credit Card
• United States Passport
• Retirement Center ID
• Florida Driver License
• Florida ID Card
• Public Assistance ID
• Neighborhood Association ID
• Student ID
• Government Employee ID
• Florida Concealed Weapon
or Firearm License
If you do not have the required identification, Florida Law
allows you to vote a Provisional Ballot
-
What if you're an only child?
Then you were that "one"
-
(https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c52af1d22463d64e6a323f3d8d65a46d5d77c0ae5db511397ab86bc34138a1c.jpg)
-
Then you were that "one"
That makes my head hurt.
-
With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.
-
With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.
Well I'm going with the theory that conservatives aren't responding to pollsters and therefore the pollsters have no idea what's truly coming down the pipe.
That if pollsters think it's close, it isn't - at least until proven otherwise...
-
That makes my head hurt.
LOL!
-
With all of this optimistic repub news..I'm expecting a disaster. When things look this positive, look out below.
I'm right there with you on that thought.
-
Well I'm going with the theory that conservatives aren't responding to pollsters and therefore the pollsters have no idea what's truly coming down the pipe.
That if pollsters think it's close, it isn't - at least until proven otherwise...
I don't think we're going to see a red tsunami.
-
I don't think we're going to see a red tsunami.
I do.
-
We'll see a red tsunami. And then six months from now, we'll see Republicans begin making excuses why they are unable to stop the Democrat agenda.
-
We'll see a red tsunami. And then six months from now, we'll see Republicans begin making excuses why they are unable to stop the Democrat agenda.
Exactly. We have seen this play over and over and over again.
Exasperated, the American people decide for a change, overwhelmingly, and then
Nothing.
Happens every time.
-
I don't think we're going to see a red tsunami.
I am with you. There is still the Fraud Factor out there.
-
Next week we'll know.
-
I don't think we're going to see a red tsunami.
The Republicans would fare exceedingly better if they actually offered an alternative to the Democrats.
-
If history is a guide, yes but some in this new crop aren't going to play ball with that crowd. @roamer_1
Agree
-
A 'shellacking" should also include Governors, statehouses, Attorneys General, and school boards.
Remember this when you vote.
Yup
I am really liking this Kari Lake. She’s one to watch while she governs AZ
-
Yup
I am really liking this Kari Lake. She’s one to watch while she governs AZ
She has a good backup band, too, and they all do rallies as a team.
-
It seems to me that Biden’s little speech last night may have done what Hillary’s deplorable speech did.
-
The Republicans would fare exceedingly better if they actually offered an alternative to the Democrats.
Yes absolutely!! That message has been very weak.
-
Yes absolutely!! That message has been very weak.
I'm hoping for The Red Wave, simply to show people bold is better than weak. We may see some heretofore "moderates R's" straighten up their voting records in Congress.
-
I'm hoping for The Red Wave, simply to show people bold is better than weak. We may see some heretofore "moderates R's" straighten up their voting records in Congress.
That would be an excellent outcome.
-
Best guess ... and to guard against disappointment ... 20 seats in the House, and 1 additional senate seat. By all rights there should be a large wave, but it has not materialized in the polling. Aside from the midwest, the recent polling hasn't been lousy enough to discount entirely. The weather will be unsettled in western states that mainly vote by mail, so maybe that is a nonfactor.
-
We've seen a huge shift in polling trends since summer towards Republicans, but the absolute numbers are still a mystery.
Polling has been way off the last few elections because even at the end it's still so tilted toward the Rats, due to a number of factors, but mostly because those voting GOP don't answer the polls, but show up to vote.
Even then there are extremely ominous signs that the Rats are cratering. Minorities have shifted away from them, the youth vote is not there, the blue collars are long gone, and the biggest of all - white suburban women in the last month have practically herded toward the GOP.
You have to ask yourself - where the heck is the Rat base vote going to come from? What is left to vote for them, and are even those going to show up?
To me that opens the possibility that this election might be something like '94 or better for the GOP, with them getting seats that weren't even on the radar. It's just too hard to guess, but I guarantee one thing - if things are going right, I will be up all night.
-
We've seen a huge shift in polling trends since summer towards Republicans, but the absolute numbers are still a mystery.
Polling has been way off the last few elections because even at the end it's still so tilted toward the Rats, due to a number of factors, but mostly because those voting GOP don't answer the polls, but show up to vote.
Even then there are extremely ominous signs that the Rats are cratering. Minorities have shifted away from them, the youth vote is not there, the blue collars are long gone, and the biggest of all - white suburban women in the last month have practically herded toward the GOP.
You have to ask yourself - where the heck is the Rat base vote going to come from? What is left to vote for them, and are even those going to show up?
To me that opens the possibility that this election might be something like '94 or better for the GOP, with them getting seats that weren't even on the radar. It's just too hard to guess, but I guarantee one thing - if things are going right, I will be up all night.
It appears that you've not taken into account the most important item.....CHEATING. It's gonna happen, the question is how bad will it be.
-
Best guess ... and to guard against disappointment ... 20 seats in the House, and 1 additional senate seat. By all rights there should be a large wave, but it has not materialized in the polling. Aside from the midwest, the recent polling hasn't been lousy enough to discount entirely. The weather will be unsettled in western states that mainly vote by mail, so maybe that is a nonfactor.
To be totally honest if your outcome occurs, our country is totally lost. If there isn't a massive wave, God help us.
-
It appears that you've not taken into account the most important item.....CHEATING. It's gonna happen, the question is how bad will it be.
The problem is that only in Governor and Senator races do urban counties have the ability to throw their weight, and a good chunk of those do not have Rats in the state leadership.
As far as the House, Detroit for example can't affect what goes on in Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Kalamazoo, and since it votes Rat anyway, it is of no help.
So yes, they can cheat, but not universally like in a Presidential race.
-
To be totally honest if your outcome occurs, our country is totally lost. If there isn't a massive wave, God help us.
Yes and I hope it is large enough to serve as a buffer against whatever happens in 2024. But many contests rest on a knife's edge, and I fear some conservatives are suffering from irrational exuberance. With JD Vance moving out of the danger zone, a pickup of 2 seats may be a reasonable expectation as of this morning.
-
Yes and I hope it is large enough to serve as a buffer against whatever happens in 2024. But many contests rest on a knife's edge, and I fear some conservatives are suffering from irrational exuberance. With JD Vance moving out of the danger zone, a pickup of 2 seats may be a reasonable expectation as of this morning.
But a pickup of 2 seats is really not so great. We still have Mitt Romney, Murkowski and Collins. They are basically democrats. It needs to be a pickup of 5...
-
But a pickup of 2 seats is really not so great. We still have Mitt Romney, Murkowski and Collins. They are basically democrats. It needs to be a pickup of 5...
:thumbsup:
-
With respect to the “Red Wave” hitting the House elections, here is a reference point from the 2010 midterm election. Going in, the (R)’s held 179 seats. After the wave, they gained 63 seats to push the total to 242. Now, in 2022, the (R)’s hold 212 seats - a full 33 seats above the 2010 baseline. If the (R)’s gain 30 seats through this cycle, they will match the result of 2010.
-
But a pickup of 2 seats is really not so great. We still have Mitt Romney, Murkowski and Collins. They are basically democrats. It needs to be a pickup of 5...
Five won't matter either. Remember the Gang of Eight?
-
Five won't matter either. Remember the Gang of Eight?
Until we get rid of old smirky, squatty Mitch, we got nothin'.
-
Until we get rid of old smirky, squatty Mitch, we got nothin'.
Pretty much... And that is no time to rest on your laurels either... Until there is more Conservatives than there are moderates and liberals within the party, there will STILL be nothing.
Folks have to stop voting in fear and start voting for what they believe. That is ALL that will fix the Republican party. And that is ONLY what will fix America.
If not, then we might as well fire up another party. And I have been there for years. I don't think Republicans can be salvaged. PLEASE, prove me wrong. I would love to be wrong.
-
The red wave failed to appear. 8888crybaby
-
Pretty much... And that is no time to rest on your laurels either... Until there is more Conservatives than there are moderates and liberals within the party, there will STILL be nothing.
Folks have to stop voting in fear and start voting for what they believe. That is ALL that will fix the Republican party. And that is ONLY what will fix America.
If not, then we might as well fire up another party. And I have been there for years. I don't think Republicans can be salvaged. PLEASE, prove me wrong. I would love to be wrong.
Very true @roamer_1 Even though Rubio won (and I didn't vote for him) is that truly a victory?? Perhaps he's better than his DEM opponent but he's still a liberal.
I'm all for firing up another party to replace the dwindling GOP. I mean no offense to those who have worked for years and put in many hours to support the GOP, but the GOP has obviously seen much better days.
-
I'm all for firing up another party to replace the dwindling GOP. I mean no offense to those who have worked for years and put in many hours to support the GOP, but the GOP has obviously seen much better days.
Hey, I was extremely active in the Republican party before 07 - I was a hitter on the money side, and know my way around the bundling game. I was a player, and I tried HARD. Even after being jaded on the national scene, I stayed heavy in the state and regional shows. So I don't mean to offend anyone either. I walked that hard mile too.
But at some point it is busted beyond all belief. And think that happened for real and forever in the 2016 campaign with the crap passed at the convention. I think the old dawgs are protected and too powerful to tip. and with that, no new blood, not to mention conservative blood can rise.
Personally I think they've been long gone for a while, but that did them in, and time would be better spent raising up a new Conservative party. And that is where most of my efforts remain.
-
T E R M L I M I T S!!!!!!