The Briefing Room
General Category => National/Breaking News => Weather => Topic started by: catfish1957 on July 01, 2021, 02:24:15 pm
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Tropical Storm Elsa has formed. It still way out there, at least 500 miles east of the Leeward Island. Elsa is the 5th earliest "E" storm on record, so unfortuantely it seems we might again be in for an above average Tropical season. Long range NHC projections has this storm going into the Carribean, veering NW through Jamaica, Cuba, and South Florida. At this point in the forecast period (and early obviously), NHC has the storm remaining under Hurricane status.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/115028_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021
...ELSA CONTINUING QUICKLY WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...9.6N 50.2W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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ABC7 7/2/2021
Elsa has strengthened to become the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic season.
Elsa's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph as of Friday morning as the storm approaches Barbados.
This is a breaking news update. A previous version of this report is below.
Tropical Storm Elsa is strengthening as it moves toward land in the Caribbean Sea.
The 5 a.m. (AST) update from the National Weather Service found Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and was located about 70 miles east southeast of Barbados.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Dominican Republic as Elsa is expected to continue to strengthen as it moves westward.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for most of the islands in the area.
Elsa's track will move it through the Windward Islands on Friday. On Saturday the storm will approach Hispaniola. Elsa then moves near Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday.
More: https://abc7chicago.com/hurricane-center-tropical-storm-elsa-noaa-tracker/10852881/ (https://abc7chicago.com/hurricane-center-tropical-storm-elsa-noaa-tracker/10852881/)
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Unexpectedly Elsa, has become the first Cape Verde hurricane of the season. Though at minimum strength. NHC forecast has the storm heading NW, clipping the south coast of Hispanola (Haiti/Domincan Republic) then near Cuba/Jamica, thence to the south coast of Florida. Forecast strength has it remaining a hurricane until Hispanola. Finally after a week approaching the FL coast as a strong Tropical Storm Don't forget.... Much can change. Even yesterday, the NHC did not expect the storm to reach Hurricane status.
One point of interest too, is a couple of the models (though outliers) have this storm reaching Cat 3 status.
Here is the 8AM advisory, path graphics, and latest modeling run....
BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021
...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS..
SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/134722_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
(https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al052021.png)
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(https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MicrosoftTeams-image-2021-07-02T090547.274.png?w=632)
source: Accuweather (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-elsa-develops-in-the-atlantic-near-barbados/971809)
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Climate change doncha know.
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(https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/MicrosoftTeams-image-2021-07-02T090547.274.png?w=632)
source: Accuweather (https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-elsa-develops-in-the-atlantic-near-barbados/971809)
9999hair out0000
Looks like another freaking active Hurricane season. I am still cleaning up one property after Laura.
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@libertybele Incoming!
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@libertybele Incoming!
Duck and dodge. LOL I'm not concerned at this point.
Elsa strengthens into the season's first hurricane, and could pose a threat to Florida by next week
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/02/weather/hurricane-elsa-forecast-friday/index.html
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Hurricane Elsa cuts power, batters homes in Barbados
os July 2, 2021. REUTERS/Nigel Browne
CHRIST CHURCH, Barbados, July 2 (Reuters) - Hurricane Elsa blew roofs off homes, toppled trees and sparked flooding in the island nation of Barbados then pounded St. Vincent with heavy rain and winds on Friday, as the storm was tracking towards Haiti.
Minister of Home Affairs, Information and Public Affairs Wilfred A. Abrahams urged Barbadians to shelter in place and only leave their homes if the structures were damaged.
Elsa strengthened into a hurricane earlier in the day and was about 95 miles (153 km) west-northwest of St. Vincent, blowing maximum sustained winds of 85 miles per hour (140 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.
"The island definitely cannot handle any sort of damages at this point because we still haven't recovered from the volcanic eruption yet," said 20-year-old student Queriise Thomas in the community of Choppins in southern St. Vincent........
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/elsa-strengthens-into-hurricane-near-barbados-us-nhc-2021-07-02/
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Not to much change in the status of Elsa in past 24 hours. Early part of the path has shifted slightly North, and storm projection has a good bit of time over Cuba. That is good news for Florida if this happens, as it should at least reduce the chance of the storm strengthening. According to NHC Elsa will remain a minimal hurricane through its trek in the Caribbean. Then turn northwest, then north near the Keys, then to Florida coast itself. The cone basically has about all of Florida, except that bit of the panhandle west of Panama City, Florida. Models generally have about a 100 mile spread, but almost all are aiming at FL. Our FL Briefers should be preparing in case this this strenghens. A few of the models have this reaching Cat 2 status.
One bit of interest, is the extreme forward speed Elsa is taking. I don't ever remember a full cane moving at 31 mph this far south. North Atlantic? Maybe. But in the Caribbean? That is an oddity.
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021
...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/120029_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
(https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al052021.png)
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Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.
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Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.
Yep...we don't do panic porn round here. This ain't no Hurricane Michael.
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Parts of FL may see a tropical storm, or just a lot of rain, that's about it.
That's their thinking right now. But here is the Intensity Model, and it does show one of them having the storm reaching Cat 3 status, and three near Cat 2. But like they always say. It never hurts to over prepare.
(https://web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models/models/al052021_inten.png)
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If Elsa doesn't weaken over Hispanola or Cuba, then I'd say there may be a chance for strengthening.
Local forecast so far isn't showing strengthening. Unfortunately the hurricane guru who called Charley taking a different direction and barreling right towards us when all other forecasters were saying it was going to miss us, has retired.
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Yep...we don't do panic porn round here. This ain't no Hurricane Michael.
Nope, definitely not. I laugh sometimes at the meteorologists who try to sensationalize storms. As usual they are telling people to prepare now. After living down here 30 years, it becomes tiresome.
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Hoarders got to hoard.
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Hoarders got to hoard.
Ya, well, I am guilty. After Charley I bought at least a 6 mo. supply of dehydrated food + MRE's. Well, I've had to throw the MRE's out when we moved because we never needed them and they were beyond expired. I learned.
We bought this house almost 3 years ago new and it came with hurricane shutters --- hopefully they are all there. Never actually put them up to check and hopefully we won't have to. :shrug:
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We bought this house almost 3 years ago new and it came with hurricane shutters --- hopefully they are all there. Never actually put them up to check and hopefully we won't have to. :shrug:
LOL! Ours has Kevlar Covers that cover the windows. My neighbor came by and suggested we do a test fit to make sure the grommets line up with the bolt holes. Sure enough 3 covers were so messed up they had to replace them. Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane) It was funny!
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Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane) It was funny!
In SE Texas, SW Louisana, it is called being snake bitten. Rita, Ike, Laura, Harvey, Imelda...... It's really starting to get old.
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Hoarders got to hoard.
Sounds like an opportunity to make a killing in the plywood futures market.
The current price of a 4X8 sheet of plywood is > $75 at Home Despot.
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LOL! Ours has Kevlar Covers that cover the windows. My neighbor came by and suggested we do a test fit to make sure the grommets line up with the bolt holes. Sure enough 3 covers were so messed up they had to replace them. Another neighbor stopped by as I was standing in my yard looking at all the covers and he asked. "Do you know something we don't" (about a hurricane) It was funny!
:laugh: We had Lexan shutters made for a double window to let light in and purchased a hurricane proof stained glass window for the front door. Other than that we have metal (maybe aluminum) and they are too heavy for me to really handle and I haven't gotten the hubby motivated to put them up to check that all windows will be covered (I'm not the nagging type) ... so ... who knows. Hopefully, we won't have to scramble. We did get a quote to change out the aluminum for accordians, but they wanted $4,500 in addition to the $700+ for the Lexan and the front door wasn't cheap so we passed.
Elsa's been downgraded to a tropical storm anyways.
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@libertybele
bele, saw on TV this morning, they are going to bring down the rest of the condo building before the storm gets there.
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@libertybele
bele, saw on TV this morning, they are going to bring down the rest of the condo building before the storm gets there.
Yes, I saw that as well, they are going to demo within 36 hours. That's smart and all fine and good, but where in the heck are all the residents going to go? Friends and family, hotels, but what about all their belongings? Storage can get expensive.
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Yes, I saw that as well, they are going to demo within 36 hours. That's smart and all fine and good, but where in the heck are all the residents going to go? Friends and family, hotels, but what about all their belongings? Storage can get expensive.
Presently they are being put up in Hotels....
That said, the residents probably will lose all their possessions they did not take with them to the Hotels. I really doubt they will be allowed in to retrieve them in time.
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Presently they are being put up in Hotels.... That said, the residents probably will lose all their possessions they did not take with them to the Hotels. I really doubt they will be allowed in to retrieve them in time.
@Cyber Liberty
When I heard the storm was coming, I said out loud to myself, "What else can happen to these poor people." I wanted to "fix" it, but no one can "fix" this.
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@Cyber Liberty
When I heard the storm was coming, I said out loud to myself, "What else can happen to these poor people." I wanted to "fix" it, but no one can "fix" this.
Nope. Thousands of family photos will be lost forever.
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Nope. Thousands of family photos will be lost forever.
C'mon man. They be on the....you know.... the cloud thing.
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C'mon man. They be on the....you know.... the cloud thing.
That will be of comfort to the people who had WW2 photos from Grandpa.
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That will be of comfort to the people who had WW2 photos from Grandpa.
@Cyber Liberty
I have a number of "tintype" pictures of my Mother's family. When son started to major in film, he took the tintypes to class so members could see what these are. Consider the rest in "quotes":
"Tintype photographs were popular for a relatively short time period, so it is fairly easy to determine an approximate date if you have tintypes in your family history collection. Tintypes were introduced in 1856 and were popular until about 1867. Because tintypes are a permanent photographic image, they may still be in good condition if they were stored properly over the years."
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@Cyber Liberty
I have a number of "tintype" pictures of my Mother's family. When son started to major in film, he took the tintypes to class so members could see what these are. Consider the rest in "quotes":
"Tintype photographs were popular for a relatively short time period, so it is fairly easy to determine an approximate date if you have tintypes in your family history collection. Tintypes were introduced in 1856 and were popular until about 1867. Because tintypes are a permanent photographic image, they may still be in good condition if they were stored properly over the years."
Perzackly!
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021
...ELSA SLOWS DOWN AS IT PASSES BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/032356.shtml
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4 Jul 2021 4 a.m. update: Elsa has weakened to Tropical Storm Strength and is presently located at the straits between Jamaica and Haiti, given both countires tropical storm strength winds. Later today the storm will head toward Cuba scraping most of the southhas coast today and tomorrow. Forecast then has it moving towards the keys, veering north and east, finally making landfall NW of Tampa.
NHC forecasts that the storm while in the Caribbean and Gulf will remain at T.S. Strength. Through Wednesday 4-6" inches of rain is expected along the SW Florida coast from the Keys to Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for most of the Key, and a Warning likely issued later today.
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:bkmk:
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Cuba evacuates 70,000 as Tropical Storm Elsa approaches
HAVANA (AP) — Cuba evacuated 70,000 people along the island’s southern region on Sunday amid fears that Tropical Storm Elsa could unleash heavy flooding after battering several Caribbean islands, killing at least three people.
The Cuban government had opened shelters and moved to protect sugarcane and cocoa crops ahead of the storm. Most of those evacuated went to relatives’ homes, while about 23,000 people sheltered at government facilities. Some 400 living in mountainous areas took refuge in natural caves that had been prepared for the emergency.
The storm’s next target was Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 15 counties, including in Miami-Dade County where the high-rise condominium building collapsed last week.
more
https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-cuba-tropical-storms-storms-floods-15098bff76e4d0e938339627501d0ff0
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We'll see. I live in SW FL and I don't think we're going to see a whole lot of rain. The predicted 4-6" mentioned above, really isn't much at all.
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Big Nothing burger for us. I'm not even going to bother hoarding anything.
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Big Nothing burger for us. I'm not even going to bother hoarding anything.
It will probably be a big nothing burger for us as well...I was a little surprised that DeSantis called a state of emergency, but considering the condo that just collapsed he's covering his booty.
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It will probably be a big nothing burger for us as well...I was a little surprised that DeSantis called a state of emergency, but considering the condo that just collapsed he's covering his booty.
One less thing for the leftists to mount a phony baloney attack on him.
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4 Jul 2020 10 a.m. update: No really significant changes since last advisory in path or strength. Almost all the models have a landfall NW of Tampa, with only 4-6" of rain. Since 33 out of 34 of the models now show this storm not reaching hurricane strength, this will be my last advisory unless some one else wants it, or if the situation changes.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/173933_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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One less thing for the leftists to mount a phony baloney attack on him.
IMO either way DeSantis goes on this he's going to catch blame.
They are going to start demolition. Considering that the Israelis have commented that they've seen people rescued after 9 days, it gave me reason to question as to why they are going to demo so soon, especially since the building has been evacuated.
Secondly, looking at the tropical storm models, it sure doesn't look like the Miami area is even gong to be affected.
You are right, the left will find a reason to attack him.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 05 2021
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba today
resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa
approaches the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and coastal
Georgia through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated
flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Mid to late week, heavy
rains across coastal South Carolina and North Carolina may result
in isolated flash and urban flooding.
2. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are
expected to continue across portions of central and western Cuba
today.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Florida Keys and along the Florida west coast tonight through
Tuesday night, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are in effect for
portions of the west coast of Florida and the Florida Big Bend.
4. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions and storm surge
impacts along the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and
Thursday.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/173933_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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The cone is pretty far away from Miami now. Looks like they knocked the building down for nothing.
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The cone is pretty far away from Miami now. Looks like they knocked the building down for nothing.
The bldg. had to eventually come down anyway, but any chances of finding survivors now (though slim) is gone.
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The bldg. had to eventually come down anyway, but any chances of finding survivors now (though slim) is gone.
And everybody who lived in the intact section got to watch all their precious belongs collapse into a pile of dust and rubble. As long as the building still stood, there was a chance they could save their possessions.
No more.
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Tropical Storm Elsa Makes Cuba Landfall; Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Expanded in Florida
A tropical storm warning is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys, from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, and also along the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to the Suwannee River. This includes Key West, Marco Island, Naples, Sanibel Island, Sarasota-Bradenton and Tampa-St. Petersburg. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) are expected to begin in the Lower and Middle Keys tonight and along the west coast of Florida Tuesday.
Tropical storm watches have also been issued in other parts of Florida, from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay, and from north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, near Apalachicola. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) are possible beginning tonight in the Upper Keys and in Florida's Big Bend by Tuesday night.
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6 Jul 2020 8:00 CDT update.
Elsa has started its approach to FL. There is strengthening underway, and is forecasted to be a a 70 mph Tropical Storm at Landfall. The NHC also thinks there might be a slight chance to a minimal hurricane, and Watches have been posted from Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River. 5 foot storm surge is expected just east of landfall. 4-6" of rain generally along the Florida West Coast.
My many experiences tell me this won't be too big a problem, but 70 mph sustained winds sure will be disrupting the power, and be taking down some trees/limbs. Keep us updated FL Briefers.
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(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/114641_3day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
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Looks like my friends near Wilmington, NC, and a cousin in Delaware will get to share in the Elsa experience.
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Looks like my friends near Wilmington, NC, and a cousin in Delaware will get to share in the Elsa experience.
The Outer Banks is the most hurricane prone area in the entire United States. They could probably tell you some "Cane Tales"
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So, will this go down as a 'cane in the books or a TD?
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So, will this go down as a 'cane in the books or a TD?
Based on at this very moment NHC guidance. 90% chance - Tropical Storm, 10% chance- Hurricane. We will know in the next few days.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_wind_probs_64_F120+png/114641.png)
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Looks like my friends near Wilmington, NC, and a cousin in Delaware will get to share in the Elsa experience.
My brother-in law used to live in Wilmington, NC and indeed it's hurricane alley. After they flooded last hurricane, they moved.
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We live a bit north of the Keys. So far, we've have seen some very light rain showers here and there and very little wind. I've spent much of the morning and early afternoon out on our patio. Right now it is not raining and we have no wind, it's just overcast.
Local meteorologists are predicting a Cat 1 hurricane making landfall around Tampa which is further north than where we are.
We still might see some wind gusts of about 50 mph and a little rain with possible storm surge predicted, but we moved off the Gulf onto fresh water, so, the surge won't effect us.
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We live a bit north of the Keys. So far, we've have seen some very light rain showers here and there and very little wind. I've spent much of the morning and early afternoon out on our patio. Right now it is not raining and we have no wind, it's just overcast.
Local meteorologists are predicting a Cat 1 hurricane making landfall around Tampa which is further north than where we are.
We still might see some wind gusts of about 50 mph and a little rain with possible storm surge predicted, but we moved off the Gulf onto fresh water, so, the surge won't effect us.
Latest advisory has it at 10% chance on tiny bit of slice of the west coast of FL. There is a tiny tiny slice having it at 20% about 30 miles offshore.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052021_wind_probs_64_F120+png/180428.png)
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Please be safe, all of you who may be affected by the storm.
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Short update to all those Briefers in potential path. NHC has edged up expected strength of Elsa to minimal hurricane status (74 mph). Didn't see too much difference in the advisory as far as path, surge, or rainfall.