The Briefing Room
General Category => Science, Technology and Knowledge => Energy => Topic started by: thackney on April 10, 2019, 02:05:31 pm
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Oil Expected to Average $76+ For the Rest of 2019
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_expected_to_average_76_for_the_rest_of_2019-10-apr-2019-158564-article/ (https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_expected_to_average_76_for_the_rest_of_2019-10-apr-2019-158564-article/)
April 10, 2019
Analysts at Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR) are sticking to their forecast for Brent crude to average $73 per barrel this year, a new report by the company has revealed.
“The market fundamentals have grown increasingly supportive, led by cutbacks on the supply side, but lingering concerns over the health of the global economy continue to drag on both sentiment and prices,†the analysts stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone.
“Given price performance in the year to date, our forecast assumes an average of $76.2 per barrel for the rest of the year, which is strongly bullish compared to spot,†the analysts added.
“We believe that fundamental shifts in the balance of supply and demand have yet to be reflected in Brent and that broader market sentiment is overly bearish,†the analysts continued.
The Bloomberg Consensus, which was highlighted in the report, forecasts that Brent will average $67.5 per barrel this year.
Last month, FSMR analysts lowered their average annual price forecast for Brent for 2019 to $73 per barrel, which marked a $2 decrease from their previous projection of $75....
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Not sure I would do much consultancy work with this outfit as its forecast is not one that appears 'on the money'.
While it highlights the problems in forecasting crude prices(you have several times said if you could do so accurately, you would no longer have to work), I suspect that it and like entities have certain interests in mind when forecasting that may be attempts to sway others.
In looking at their webpage, I saw this unusual statement about slavery which I never read about before.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf (https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf)
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One thing I learned in 35 years in the oil business, is that anyone who thinks they can predict the price of oil past one month, is just plan silly. I chuckle and skip any article of anyone who thinks they can.
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(https://oil-price.net/1m_small.gif)WTI Crude Oil
$53.48 06/5/2019
https://www.oil-price.net/ (https://www.oil-price.net/)
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One thing I learned in 35 years in the oil business, is that anyone who thinks they can predict the price of oil past one month, is just plan silly. I chuckle and skip any article of anyone who thinks they can.
888high58888 It is all bullshit.
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Not sure I would do much consultancy work with this outfit as its forecast is not one that appears 'on the money'.
While it highlights the problems in forecasting crude prices(you have several times said if you could do so accurately, you would no longer have to work), I suspect that it and like entities have certain interests in mind when forecasting that may be attempts to sway others.
In looking at their webpage, I saw this unusual statement about slavery which I never read about before.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf (https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf)
From 29 October 2015 the Transparency in Supply Chain Provisions require businesses to publish an annual statement if they have an annual turnover above a threshold (£36 million).[7] The statement must confirm the steps taken to ensure that slavery and human trafficking are not taking place in the business (or in any supply chain) or declare that no steps to confirm the existence of slavery or trafficking have been taken. It is expected that few businesses would take the latter option as it may place their ethical position into question and affect their reputation. There are, however, no legally binding requirements to conduct due diligence on supply chains and there are no criminal or financial penalties for non-compliance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Slavery_Act_2015 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Slavery_Act_2015)
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Not sure I would do much consultancy work with this outfit as its forecast is not one that appears 'on the money'.
While it highlights the problems in forecasting crude prices(you have several times said if you could do so accurately, you would no longer have to work), I suspect that it and like entities have certain interests in mind when forecasting that may be attempts to sway others.
In looking at their webpage, I saw this unusual statement about slavery which I never read about before.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf (https://www.fitchsolutions.com/sites/default/files/downloads/2019-Modern-Slavery-Act-Statement-FSL.pdf)
I realize this is almost a year old, but is worth looking to see what happened historically to see the value in forecasting.
I had to laugh that this outfit received all sorts of awards for being the most accurate forecaster out there yet failed so miserably.
Fitch Solutions Makes Strong Showing in FocusEconomics' Analyst Forecast Awards 2019
Fitch Solutions-London-30 May 2019: Fitch Solutions is pleased to announce that it has been named amongst the most accurate economic and commodities forecasters globally at FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards 2019.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com/press-releases/fitch-solutions-makes-strong-showing-focuseconomics-analyst-forecast-awards-2019 (https://www.fitchsolutions.com/press-releases/fitch-solutions-makes-strong-showing-focuseconomics-analyst-forecast-awards-2019)