Are Trump’s Polls Understating His Lead?
David Catron
6–7 minutes

During the two months since President Biden delivered his State of the Union address, a wide variety of legacy news outlets have been at pains to portray an infinitesimal improvement in his polling as a shift of momentum in the presidential race. Last week, for example, USA Today breathlessly reported that “Trump and Biden are ‘darn near even’ in the 2024 election.” If this was meant to provide moral sustenance for worried Democrats it was thin gruel indeed. Biden is an incumbent president struggling to keep up with a challenger most of whose time and money has been devoted to fighting off a ruthless lawfare campaign. Moreover, if history is any guide, it’s probable that the polls understate the strength of Trump’s support.

    The voters remember the peace and prosperity of Trump’s tenure in office and they have had enough of Biden’s penury and warfare.

At present, the RealClearPolitics average indicates that Trump holds a narrow national lead. But the averages that really matter are those which show him ahead in all seven of the battleground states where the election will be decided. It’s a good bet that they are, once again, underestimating the number of votes that will be cast for Trump. Lest you have forgotten amidst the economic and cultural chaos that has attended the return of “the adults” to power, the 2020 polls undercounted Trump voters by wider margins than in 2016. At length, the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) commissioned a task force to assess how badly the polls performed. The conclusion was brutal:

Public opinion polls ahead of the 2020 election were the most inaccurate in a generation … The task force found that polling during the two weeks before the election overstated support for then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 3.9 percentage points, which was the largest polling error since 1980 when support for Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points. The presidential election between Biden, the eventual winner, and incumbent president Donald Trump was much closer than polling had indicated.

more
https://spectator.org/are-trumps-polls-understating-his-lead/

The Runaway Biden Problem Train Is Gathering Steam and Heading Towards the November Cliff
Adam Turner


If the Presidential election were held on May 7, 2024, Republican Donald Trump would probably repeat the feat of Democrat Grover Cleveland – over 100 years ago – to become only the second President ousted from the White House to return four years later.

Trump is currently leading in virtually all of the national and state polling. The RealClearPolitics polling average has him up by 1.3 points nationally, and he has been leading by around two points for almost a year now. To keep this in perspective, during 2016 and 2020, Trump rarely led in any polling, and never led in the average. Also, Trump is leading by an average of 3.2 points in the battleground states, which include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And for Biden to win these battleground states, and thus the electoral college, he will almost certainly have to win the popular vote by at least three points, a five-point swing from where we currently are.

Joe Biden is also facing some huge electoral problems that make things even worse for him. Let’s re-examine the five old problems still facing Biden, and one new (sixth) one, as well.  Here they are, in order of their importance:   

more
https://redstate.com/adam-turner/2024/05/06/the-runaway-biden-problem-train-is-gathering-steam-and-heading-towards-the-november-cliff-n2173773

Stephen L. Miller
@redsteeze
A genocide where the military announces they are going to do a genocide and warns everyone that the genocide is coming
8:53 AM · May 6, 2024

"In his 50+ years in politics ... Biden has been all over the map on abortion," says CNN's Jake Tapper.

— "In '74, he said Roe v. Wade went too far, and that a woman should not have 'the sole right to say what should happen to her body.'"

— "In 2006, he said, 'I do not view abortion as a choice and a right.'"

— "Just this year he said, 'I've never been supportive of, you know, it‘s my body, I can do what I want with it.'"

https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1787175243095663090

Mark Noonan
@Mark_E_Noonan
The West will return to Christianity or it will become Muslim.
Secular liberalism is a false god and it has failed.
5:20 PM · May 5, 2024


https://twitter.com/ManishPangotra5/status/1786996255484506444