The Briefing Room
General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: Lando Lincoln on March 09, 2020, 12:40:03 am
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Dow futures down more than 1,000 points, kicking off another rough week for the markets
By Clare Duffy, CNN Business
March 8, 2020
New York (CNN Business) Stock futures were down again Sunday evening as the novel coronavirus outbreak continues to roil financial markets.
Dow (DJI) futures fell by as much as 1,072 points, or about 4.2% Sunday. The S&P (INX) futures were down around 4.5% and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down 4.4%.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell to a record low Sunday evening — below 0.5%.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html)
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Oh boy... 9999hair out0000
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The future appears bright to those who prepared for this carnage.
Lots of opportunities out there.
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With futures down over 1,000 pts it will probably be another record breaking drop in the market. What a great way to start a Monday morning. Global recession may be just around the corner.
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Oh boy... 9999hair out0000
(https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/funny-roller-coaster-photos-9-5a68493d265bf__605.jpg)
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After this clears up maybe we can ween ourselves off of China just a bit...
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After this clears up maybe we can ween ourselves off of China just a bit...
Ya think? Years ago I tried not to buy things made in China -- very difficult. I was unaware of the pharmaceutical hold that they have on us.
Opportunities for companies to comeback to the good ole U.S.A.
Keep America Great Again = Made in the U.S.A.!!!! :patriot: :patriot: :patriot: :patriot:
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I was pretty sure this thing hadn't found bottom yet.
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I was pretty sure this thing hadn't found bottom yet.
Today may be historic.
Oil futures crashing down to under $32/bbl. That is 22% off since Friday's trade date.
DJIA Futures off 1,255 at the moment
30 YR Freakin' Tbond down to 1.22%
Buying opportunites coming up soon.....
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Today may be historic.
Oil futures crashing down to under $32/bbl. That is 22% off since Friday's trade date.
DJIA Futures off 1,2555 at the moment
30 YR Freakin' Tbond down to 1.22%
Buying opportunites coming up soon.....
Looks like its setting up for a big dramatic selling climax.
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Pre - Trading numbers for us in intergrated oils, relatng to today's crash. Again Divy #'s are if these payouts are sustainable.
CVX- 84.50. Divy Yield 6.1%
XOM- 42.70 Divy Yield 8.1%
BP- 25.51 Divy Yield- 9.8%
COP- 37.99 Divy Yield- 4.4%
And at the same time a 30 Yr TBond rate crashing to 1.22%? This is unprecedented and very concerning. Have seen nothing like it, in my 35 years of obsessively watching these things.
Who knows what the bottom is at this point, but unless you think these 4 companies are going away..........
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Looks like its setting up for a big dramatic selling climax.
Today, may be the day.
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Looks like its setting up for a big dramatic selling climax.
I predict we see some circuit breakers enacted today, for the first time, in what I care to remember.
I have said to many all along , that a 25-30,000 DJIA was crazily over-inflated. Through this bull run, I have stuck mostly with High Divy Stalwarts, and went big into bonds.(TBonds and Corporates yielding generally 3-6%) With the interest rates sinking like a rock, that strategy is getting ready to pay off handsomly. Ka-Ching.
The best advise I ever got in my investing life, was the best time to get in, is when everyone else is racing towards the exits panicking. That served me well in ''87, '00, and '08. Now retired, I have to temper that exuberance. Man I would love to be a 25 y.o., and about a half mill to invest.
(update: Fin shows already bringing up that circuit breakers will be enacted at opening. Hold On....
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Cowabunga!!!!
VIX of 50?
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3j2aS43hyNJW8/giphy.gif)
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The SPY, or SPDR ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), which is based off the S&P index but trades as a stock, is as of this post the equivalent of 2760 while the futures are limit down at 2819.
I'm gonna say that's 1500 points on the Dow or so.
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The SPY, or SPDR ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), which is based off the S&P index but trades as a stock, is as of this post the equivalent of 2760 while the futures are limit down at 2819.
I'm gonna say that's 1500 points on the Dow or so.
Surprisingly the VIX is only at 41.59.
VIX was @ 50, which is breathtaking, and numbers I haven't seen in probably 10-15 years or so. Maybe back in '09?
That 1500 drop is probably going being tempered by Circuit Breakers, which may mask true market condtions. We will see shortly..
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VIX was @ 50, which is breathtaking, and numbers I haven't seen in probably 10-15 years or so. Maybe back in '09?
That 1500 drop is probably going being tempered by Circuit Breakers, which may mask true market condtions. We will see shortly..
Yeah '09 is about right.
As far as I know the ETF's have no circuit breakers, so hopefully that's a true reflection of the market.
My VIX quotes are frozen, so that was a misquote.
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April crude futures at $31.50 after bottom at $28 overnite.
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As far as I know the ETF's have no circuit breakers, so hopefully that's a true reflection of the market.
Had to look it up, but apparently these 3 generally track the DJIA
DIA, DDM, UDOW
At this exact moment
DIA- - 6.7% 1742 pt. drop
DDM- -12.8% 3314 pt. drop
UDOW- -18.72%- 4824 pt. drop
All over the map. Take your own pick of a guess. A 5,000 pt. drop would be historic.
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Today, may be the day.
From your mouth to God's ears. :laugh:
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From your mouth to God's ears. :laugh:
Well 15 more minutes. Will be glued to the tube afterwards.
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April crude futures at $31.50 after bottom at $28 overnite.
There goes our drilling projects for the year. 8888crybaby
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There goes our drilling projects for the year. 8888crybaby
Sorry to hear that. Don't forget.... These markets nowadays can gyrate 10 X what they used. The story isn't fully written yet.
But if that trend holds, you are right.... U.S Oil CAPEX will drip to near zero. i just hope we can hold on long enough and well enough to maintain energy independence. What you are seeing right now is nothing less than a Russian and Saudi shakedown to see if they can bust us.
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Sorry to hear that. Don't forget.... These markets nowadays can gyrate 10 X what they used. The story isn't fully written yet.
But if that trend holds, you are right.... U.S Oil CAPEX will drip to near zero. i just hope we can hold on long enough and well enough to maintain energy independence. What you are seeing right now is nothing less than a Russian and Saudi shakedown to see if they can bust us.
You are exactly right....
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You are exactly right....
Alright.... Show Time......
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Alright.... Show Time......
Looks like circuit breakers set. DJIA on hold @ 24,041, down 7%.
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How can one of my stocks loose $22 in three minutes? It’s going to be a bumpy ride today.
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Looks like circuit breakers set. DJIA on hold @ 24,041, down 7%.
Still a lot of unknowns out there...fear. I can't see that we've hit bottom quite yet (maximum pain).
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S&P 500 circuit breaker is tripped, -7%.
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Stock trading halted for 15 minutes after the S&P 500 craters 7%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/dow-futures-drop-700-points-as-all-out-oil-price-war-adds-to-coronavirus-stress.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/08/dow-futures-drop-700-points-as-all-out-oil-price-war-adds-to-coronavirus-stress.html)
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Still a lot of unknowns out there...fear. I can't see that we've hit bottom quite yet (maximum pain).
One positive sign is that the FTSE is only down 8%, and other European markets similarly. That at least says globally things aren't in free fall.
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One positive sign is that the FTSE is only down 8%, and other European markets similarly. That at least says globally things aren't in free fall.
Unbelievable. 30 Year T Bond @ 0.86%, 10 Year T Bond 0.44%.
This is unprecedented, and really a concern for world wide liquidity.
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The Rats must be ecstatic this morning...
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If It’s Really A Deep State Coup Against Trump, We’re Down To “Economic Collapse†With A Dash Of Wuhan Coronavirus Thrown In For Good Fun!
Excerpt:
There’s even an argument that the election itself falls within the Fed’s purview. After all, Trump’s reelection arguably presents a threat to the U.S. and global economy, to the Fed’s independence and its ability to achieve its employment and inflation objectives. If the goal of monetary policy is to achieve the best long-term economic outcome, then Fed officials should consider how their decisions will affect the political outcome in 2020.
In other words, in the context of Dudley’s entire op-ed, it’s basically “crash the economy and blame Trumpâ€.
https://www.sgtreport.com/2020/02/if-its-really-a-deep-state-coup-against-trump-were-down-to-economic-collapse-with-a-dash-of-wuhan-coronavirus-thrown-in-for-good-fun/ (https://www.sgtreport.com/2020/02/if-its-really-a-deep-state-coup-against-trump-were-down-to-economic-collapse-with-a-dash-of-wuhan-coronavirus-thrown-in-for-good-fun/)
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VIX was @ 50, which is breathtaking, and numbers I haven't seen in probably 10-15 years or so. Maybe back in '09?
That 1500 drop is probably going being tempered by Circuit Breakers, which may mask true market condtions. We will see shortly..
60 VIX within the last hour. Wow, just wow.
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Crude has scratched itself back up to $34/bbl. (thank goodness)
DJIA down only 1,200 after being down 2000 near open.
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Crude has scratched itself back up to $34/bbl. (thank goodness)
DJIA down only 1,200 after being down 2000 near open.
Day's not over yet. 8888crybaby
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Day's not over yet. 8888crybaby
I'l use the the two biggest domestic integrated oils to kind of show how crazy this particular sector is over sold.
Right now....
Market Cap-
XOM- $185B
CVX- $155B
This is insane. The hardware alone in facilities should easily exceed these values.
Divy- XOM- 7.97%
Divy- CVX- 6.24%
Hate to tell the doomsdayers, but these two companies aren't going away, and will survive. Are these returns sustainable? I am not sure. But think about it.... Even if Divy or stock price has an additonal 50% correction, and stagnated, you'd still have a return of 3 or 4% on your investment.
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Fishrrman's off-the-wall prediction:
Circuit breakers will keep tripping every day this week.
Market will close around 20,000 (or lower) by Friday.
Once it drops below 20,000, investors may start cautiously buying again.
"Bottom"?
There is no bottom, other than "0"... ;)
Addendum:
Who here believes this is still going to be an "easy re-election" for Mr. Trump...?
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Fishrrman's off-the-wall prediction:
Circuit breakers will keep tripping every day this week.
Market will close around 20,000 (or lower) by Friday.
Once it drops below 20,000, investors may start cautiously buying again.
"Bottom"?
There is no bottom, other than "0"... ;)
Addendum:
Who here believes this is still going to be an "easy re-election" for Mr. Trump...?
1929-1932 = 88% Correction
Oct. 1987 = 37% Correction
2000-2002 (NASDAQ (dot.com))= 66% Correction
2008-2009 = 49% Correction
A 20,000 DJIA right now would still be a <30% drop.
If the hysteria over COVID-19 continues, I'll guess that number is pretty likely.
And as far as Trump's re-election? With Bernie fading, Trump's chances have dropped considerably.
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2,000 points down for the day.
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Oil Futures looks really, really bad, and probably the cause of almost all of this. Current price was ~$28 per BBL. Contract trading was suspended for several hours, then reopened with the continued free fall.
It's the price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
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Oil Futures looks really, really bad, and probably the cause of almost all of this. Current price was ~$28 per BBL. Contract trading was suspended for several hours, then reopened with the continued free fall.
It's the price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Or more likely a collaborative price fixing scheme between Russia and Saudi's to hurt US Oil production, and US oil independence.
That's even a bigger win-win for those parties. Lot's easier to prop up state owned interest than capitalist ventures.
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Or more likely a collaborative price fixing scheme between Russia and Saudi's to hurt US Oil production, and US oil independence.
That's even a bigger win-win for those parties. Lot's easier to prop up state owned interest than capitalist ventures.
That is a very good probability. It's also possible they are both doing it unilaterally and it's a real price war. Our guys like @Smokin Joe and others are going to be hurt as collateral damage.
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Russia is manipulating our election.
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Russia is manipulating our election.
I smell a Quid Pro Quo! Impeach Putin!
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That is a very good probability. It's also possible they are both doing it unilaterally and it's a real price war. Our guys like @Smokin Joe and others are going to be hurt as collateral damage.
We'll see how bad it gets. The Saudis and Russians aren't doing themselves any favors by crashing the market, either.
Some development drilling in the better plays may well continue, simply because drilling efficiency is up and it is a buyer's market. The company I am doing work for had just made a CAPEX shift to the Bakken from other plays, so I may not be hurt as badly as some. :0001:
It was providence that I am working back close to home, because the exploration end is likely to suffer a lot. If all else fails, I have a plan B that will pay most of the bills, and most of this year's property taxes are paid.
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I predict we see some circuit breakers enacted today, for the first time, in what I care to remember.
I have said to many all along , that a 25-30,000 DJIA was crazily over-inflated. Through this bull run, I have stuck mostly with High Divy Stalwarts, and went big into bonds.(TBonds and Corporates yielding generally 3-6%) With the interest rates sinking like a rock, that strategy is getting ready to pay off handsomly. Ka-Ching.
The best advise I ever got in my investing life, was the best time to get in, is when everyone else is racing towards the exits panicking. That served me well in ''87, '00, and '08. Now retired, I have to temper that exuberance. Man I would love to be a 25 y.o., and about a half mill to invest.
(update: Fin shows already bringing up that circuit breakers will be enacted at opening. Hold On....
you have the same philosophy as me.
Only I had excess amounts of large oils as it was accumulated from companies I had worked for.
Am also heavy into dividend growth companies
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There goes our drilling projects for the year. 8888crybaby
In a year or two you might be reminiscing about the 'good old days' of any drilling project.
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In a year or two you might be reminiscing about the 'good old days' of any drilling project.
An observation: I have been through a couple of real hefty boom/bust cycles, and some of the middlin' muddlin' in between. What I have noticed, though is that there are operators who keep drilling, almost no matter what. The markets get depressed, keeping the iron going is cheaper than picking it back up after it has been stacked for a few months, so drillers prices get marginal for the drilling companies. Not a lot of profit, but they stay in the game, keep their equipment up, and keep a core of capable people around to train the next wave. Some operators are positioned to take advantage of those prices, and do so, continuing with development projects, albeit sometimes at a reduced pace, setting up production for the next price recovery. DUC wells will likely increase in number, until completion costs come back down some. That curve will vary from operator to operator, but the biggies keep looking for the 'next Big Thing' and develop known reserves in anticipation of the next high.
Low prices are the cure for low prices, as those who can't afford to develop see those IP curves drop to long term production levels, which are higher in some basins and provinces than others. While the Saudis and even the Russians may pick up some market share in the interim, the same economics apply. They can't afford to keep production up against depletion if they are selling oil for less than it costs them to get it out of the ground. As a result, I think the tiff will be relatively short lived (a few months at most), and OPEC will sort it out.