The Briefing Room
General Category => Economy/Business => Topic started by: Elderberry on August 14, 2019, 05:24:38 pm
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Ben Walsh,Barrons.com•August 14, 2019
Recession Worries. All three major U.S. stock market indexes fell sharply as the U.S. Treasury market flashed a recession warning and weak economic data from China and Germany added to investors’ concerns.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both off 2.8% in afternoon trading, while the Nasdaq Composite had lost 3.1%.
More: https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-fell-because-of-a-recession-red-flag-51565800315?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo (https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-fell-because-of-a-recession-red-flag-51565800315?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo)
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Yup! There goes the supposedly great economy. People scoff at my fits over the stock market dipping every Trump moves a muscle, but it's not just the stock market that is jittery. This trade war and Trump's game playing is going to cost everyone something sooner or later.
Ah, but I'm not supposed to be worried about my future -- that's selfish. Even if I lose everything, it's a small price to pay for making America great again. Or something. *****rollingeyes*****
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Yup! There goes the supposedly great economy. People scoff at my fits over the stock market dipping every Trump moves a muscle, but it's not just the stock market that is jittery. This trade war and Trump's game playing is going to cost everyone something sooner or later.
Ah, but I'm not supposed to be worried about my future -- that's selfish. Even if I lose everything, it's a small price to pay for making America great again. Or something. *****rollingeyes*****
You really need to find something less stressful to dwell on.
Or perhaps a drink.
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More of a yellow than a red, and Trump's reelection will probably be scotched if that light actually goes red in the next few quarters. A Recession is defined as, what, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth?
Rats are sure to play the expectation card, and declare a recession even with positive growth. The press will help, as they did with Bubba Clinton in 1992 when a Recession was actually over 3 quarters before the Election. Unfortunately, GDP growth is a lagging indicator.
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You really need to find something less stressful to dwell on.
Or perhaps a drink.
My private bar at the Castle is open 24/7.
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You really need to find something less stressful to dwell on.
Or perhaps a drink.
I have to care about my future. I don't have great amounts of wealth I can afford to lose or to throw around.
You think you are secure. Maybe you don't have much stock. But what you and others don't understand is that Trump's game playing is about to cause a recession. And that recession will hit everyone no matter what kind of investment or retirement strategy you have. It's also going to cost you in your everyday life too. Consumer goods will become more expensive. Real estate is already hitting the skids. And that artificially low unemployment figure is about to rise. BLS won't be able to fudge the numbers enough to hide the increase.
The warning signs are there. If you choose to ignore them and put all your trust in your orange god, that's your business. Just don't come to me with a tin cup begging me for scraps when your income ends up in the toilet. I will be too busy looking for my own next meal.
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Something I learnt about wimmins a while ago. If you say "Calm down," she'll calm right down....
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I have to care about my future. I don't have great amounts of wealth I can afford to lose or to throw around.
You think you are secure. Maybe you don't have much stock. But what you and others don't understand is that Trump's game playing is about to cause a recession. And that recession will hit everyone no matter what kind of investment or retirement strategy you have. It's also going to cost you in your everyday life too. Consumer goods will become more expensive. Real estate is already hitting the skids. And that artificially low unemployment figure is about to rise. BLS won't be able to fudge the numbers enough to hide the increase.
The warning signs are there. If you choose to ignore them and put all your trust in your orange god, that's your business. Just don't come to me with a tin cup begging me for scraps when your income ends up in the toilet. I will be too busy looking for my own next meal.
With all seriousness, you need to seek a competent investment advisor.
If you are retired and/or on a fixed income, you should have very little risk exposure.
And for everyone, it make no sense to have a great deal of unguarded exposure in equities at this point in the cycle.
(These daily ups and downs in the major equity indices should be in the category of "interesting news," not anything for you to be worried about.)
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With all seriousness, you need to seek a competent investment advisor.
If you are retired and/or on a fixed income, you should have very little risk exposure.
And for everyone, it make no sense to have a great deal of unguarded exposure in equities at this point in the cycle.
(These daily ups and downs in the major equity indices should be in the category of "interesting news," not anything for you to be worried about.)
I'm out now, but I was sweating it 2-3 years ago when Trump took office. It was unknown (to economists) what effect that would have. I violated my 5-year investment horizon accidentally by retiring two years earlier than planned. As it turned out, I made out fine.
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I'm out now, but I was sweating it 2-3 years ago when Trump took office. It was unknown (to economists) what effect that would have. I violated my 5-year investment horizon accidentally by retiring two years earlier than planned. As it turned out, I made out fine.
888high58888
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888high58888
888high58888
We're good, now that we got our Castle. I got lucky. I'm risk-averse, so that wasn't a good time for me.
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More of a yellow than a red, and Trump's reelection will probably be scotched if that light actually goes red in the next few quarters. A Recession is defined as, what, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth?
Rats are sure to play the expectation card, and declare a recession even with positive growth. The press will help, as they did with Bubba Clinton in 1992 when a Recession was actually over 3 quarters before the Election. Unfortunately, GDP growth is a lagging indicator.
Technically, a recession is defined as when the BEA says it is. I believe the 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth' is an older definition.
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With all seriousness, you need to seek a competent investment advisor.
If you are retired and/or on a fixed income, you should have very little risk exposure.
And for everyone, it make no sense to have a great deal of unguarded exposure in equities at this point in the cycle.
(These daily ups and downs in the major equity indices should be in the category of "interesting news," not anything for you to be worried about.)
Yep. 20 years from now, the Dow won't be 750 points lower than it would have been if not for today.
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I'm out now, but I was sweating it 2-3 years ago when Trump took office. It was unknown (to economists) what effect that would have. I violated my 5-year investment horizon accidentally by retiring two years earlier than planned. As it turned out, I made out fine.
I got out the day after Obama was elected and do not regret that for one second.
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Who hired this Powell guy? :shrug:
Trump hits 'clueless' Fed chair, 'crazy inverted yield curve' after stocks plunge
By Brett Samuels - 08/14/19 03:43 PM EDT
President Trump on Wednesday slammed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him "clueless" as stocks took a dive amid looming signs that a recession could be on the horizon.
The president spent part of his day hammering away at the Fed and defending his trade policy toward China, but escalated his attacks when he personally targeted Powell and blamed the central bank for any economic woes.
"Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve," Trump tweeted from his golf club in New Jersey.
"Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!"
<..snip..>
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/457448-trump-hits-clueless-fed-chair-crazy-inverted-yield-curve-after-stocks (https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/457448-trump-hits-clueless-fed-chair-crazy-inverted-yield-curve-after-stocks)
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Who hired this Powell guy? :shrug:
Only the best....
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Worse than ought eight. The Congress needs to return now!
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It's really hard to know which is the worst of the evils foisted upon us in 1913 under Woodrow Wilson.
Is it the Fed, the Marxist income tax, or the 17th amendment?
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Technically, a recession is defined as when the BEA says it is. I believe the 'two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth' is an older definition.
It's still a rule of thumb, in the economic sense:
A recession is the contraction phase of the business cycle. It begins after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) describes it this way:
'A recession is a period of decline in total output, income, employment and trade, usually lasting six months to a year and marked by widespread contractions in many sectors of the economy.'
A common rule of thumb for recessions is two quarters of negative GDP growth.
https://study.com/academy/lesson/recession-vs-depression-definitions-and-differentiation.html
In political terms, however, it means what you say..."when the BEA says it is."
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I got out the day after Obama was elected and do not regret that for one second.
I averaged out over time with no regrets as well.
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It's really hard to know which is the worst of the evils foisted upon us in 1913 under Woodrow Wilson.
Is it the Fed, the Marxist income tax, or the 17th amendment?
1913, a very bad year.
Woodrow Wilson, a very bad man.
9999hair out0000
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I got out the day after Obama was elected and do not regret that for one second.
We're in the "out club!" 888high58888
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1913, a very bad year.
Woodrow Wilson, a very bad man.
9999hair out0000
:amen:
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With all seriousness, you need to seek a competent investment advisor.
If you are retired and/or on a fixed income, you should have very little risk exposure.
And for everyone, it make no sense to have a great deal of unguarded exposure in equities at this point in the cycle.
(These daily ups and downs in the major equity indices should be in the category of "interesting news," not anything for you to be worried about.)
I have a good financial adviser and I have a mix of investments. Problem is that I'm 66 and thanks to some bad advice, bad decisions, an initial period in my working life where I had no control over my pension (my employer invested in mutual funds that went nowhere) and Clinton's supposed great economy in the 1990s and that I had to leave the workforce much sooner than I anticipated (disability) -- I don't have a whole lot of money to play with. So yes, even at my age I still have to have some growth in order to be able to afford to live a while longer.
But you and so many others are just not getting it. I don't care how financially secure you think you are. You aren't. And much of that lack of security is the result of a president who is playing games with our future. He can blame the fed chairman and a whole bunch of other people all he wants, but a collapse is coming and when it does, it will be mostly traced back to him and his whims.
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It's really hard to know which is the worst of the evils foisted upon us in 1913 under Woodrow Wilson.
Is it the Fed, the Marxist income tax, or the 17th amendment?
I'd put them in that order, with the Fed as the worst, worse than the other two combined (which is significant in my book, because I think those two play off each other so powerfully).
Folks can argue about income vs consumption vs tariffs vs blahblahblah. At some point, we need to fund the monster. But debasing the currency, as a mandate, is just outright theft.
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I'd put them in that order, with the Fed as the worst, worse than the other two combined (which is significant in my book, because I think those two play off each other so powerfully).
Folks can argue about income vs consumption vs tariffs vs blahblahblah. At some point, we need to fund the monster. But debasing the currency, as a mandate, is just outright theft.
Like I said, it's really hard to know but you're damned right about the symbiotic relationship between them.
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Something I learnt about wimmins a while ago. If you say "Calm down," she'll calm right down....
Oh, yes, that always works.
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Oh, yes, that always works.
:mauslaff:
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(http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/TED_CRUZ_CROCS_jgfla.jpg)
/JS
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I have a good financial adviser and I have a mix of investments. Problem is that I'm 66 and thanks to some bad advice, bad decisions, an initial period in my working life where I had no control over my pension (my employer invested in mutual funds that went nowhere) and Clinton's supposed great economy in the 1990s and that I had to leave the workforce much sooner than I anticipated (disability) -- I don't have a whole lot of money to play with. So yes, even at my age I still have to have some growth in order to be able to afford to live a while longer.
Well, I am glad that you do have a good financial advisor now (I hope that his fiduciary duty is solely to you). And I have sympathy for your past plight. (Aggressively) averaging out (the opposite of averaging in) of equities may be something for you two to discuss at this point in time. You may decide that it is a good time to lock in the (hopefully bountiful) gains that you have accrued over the past several years, and have that capital available to re-enter when prices become more favorable (great buying opportunities). I truly wish you the best in this endeavor.
But you and so many others are just not getting it. I don't care how financially secure you think you are. You aren't. And much of that lack of security is the result of a president who is playing games with our future. He can blame the fed chairman and a whole bunch of other people all he wants, but a collapse is coming and when it does, it will be mostly traced back to him and his whims.
OK, to be fair it would take hours to unpack all that you have here.... and I doubt that you are all that interested in my version of things... Just a few quick comments:
- no one can legitimately make statements as broad as some of what you have above.
- as mentioned above in this thread, the creation of the Fed in 1913 is the seminal event in starting the process to whatever, and whenever, "crash" may come...
- an overdue stock market correction is not a "crash"
- the creation of the Fed ushered in centralized fractional-reserve banking and a "fiat" currency, meaning that the value of the currency is no longer moored to anything of actual value (e.g., gold), but rather declared via fiat, and able to be created (out of nothing) in an unlimited fashion. You can certainly see where this eventually leads.
- much of what is happening in the political world now is merely "noise" in the larger scheme of things.
- and whether or not you wish to give him credit (I understand that it is a firm "NO" for you!), Trump is actually trying to unwind decades of trade and monetary policy that have destroyed our "main street" economy to the favor of global interests and investment bankers...
- He may succeed against long odds, or he may fail, that is yet to be determined...
- Trump has done a lot to be critical of, but even though you won't recognize it at this point in time, he may end up succeeding to your benefit in this area over time...
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(http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/TED_CRUZ_CROCS_jgfla.jpg)
/JS
:silly:
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Beware of walking under tall buildings in manhattan
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FWIW, the total Dow loss today is 800.49.
And @EdJames
Thank you for your response. I will be talking to my adviser on Friday.
And I appreciate you not being an ass toward me. We might not agree about Trump and where this country is headed, but there is such a thing as disagreeing without being disagreeable. Glad you understand that.
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@EdJames as you @Applewood are two characters I really appreciate around here.
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FWIW, the total Dow loss today is 800.49.
And @EdJames
Thank you for your response. I will be talking to my adviser on Friday.
And I appreciate you not being an ass toward me. We might not agree about Trump and where this country is headed, but there is such a thing as disagreeing without being disagreeable. Glad you understand that.
For my part, I wish you the best of luck also. I'd hate to be facing that at 66.
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FWIW, the total Dow loss today is 800.49.
And @EdJames
Thank you for your response. I will be talking to my adviser on Friday.
And I appreciate you not being an ass toward me. We might not agree about Trump and where this country is headed, but there is such a thing as disagreeing without being disagreeable. Glad you understand that.
I sincerely hope that I am not among those who have been an a$$ toward you @Applewood but if I have, let me take this occasion to apologize.
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FWIW, the total Dow loss today is 800.49.
And @EdJames
Thank you for your response. I will be talking to my adviser on Friday.
And I appreciate you not being an ass toward me. We might not agree about Trump and where this country is headed, but there is such a thing as disagreeing without being disagreeable. Glad you understand that.
888high58888
As @corbe says, we are all together on this 3rd Rock, err, Stone, from the Sun!
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@EdJames as you @Applewood are two characters I really appreciate around here.
I’m sure that Apple and I are like everyone else, we can’t get enough of our @corbe !
888high58888
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888high58888
As @corbe says, we are all together on this 3rd Rock, err, Stone, from the Sun!
Rock. It is a damn rock. corbe is stone(d)
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Rock. It is a damn rock. corbe is stone(d)
But, but, .... he had a YouTube video and everything....
:silly:
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But, but, .... he had a YouTube video and everything....
:silly:
The man is an enigma.
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The Dow dropped 3% today.
That ain't much, when you think about it.
I don't care any more.
I'm pretty much "all cash" these days, and that goes up a good bit every month.
What happens on Wall Street doesn't necessarily reflect how things are going in the heartland. As a [retired] blue-collar deplorable, I don't see much correlation between the well-being of brokers and investors vis-a-vis that of working-class and middle-class folks.
A thought, don't mean nuthin'...
If the economy "goes bad" and the democrat-communists win in 2020...
... then we'll get to see what happens when the economy REALLY goes "bad"...
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I have a good financial adviser and I have a mix of investments. Problem is that I'm 66 and thanks to some bad advice, bad decisions, an initial period in my working life where I had no control over my pension (my employer invested in mutual funds that went nowhere) and Clinton's supposed great economy in the 1990s and that I had to leave the workforce much sooner than I anticipated (disability) -- I don't have a whole lot of money to play with. So yes, even at my age I still have to have some growth in order to be able to afford to live a while longer.
But you and so many others are just not getting it. I don't care how financially secure you think you are. You aren't. And much of that lack of security is the result of a president who is playing games with our future. He can blame the fed chairman and a whole bunch of other people all he wants, but a collapse is coming and when it does, it will be mostly traced back to him and his whims.
Sometimes I wish there were still more defined benefit programs out there rather than mostly defined contribution plans. The former mostly take the risk out of your retirement financial future, but come at a price as they are rarely lucrative compared to investing successfully. Call it peace of mind. I decided to cash in my peace of mind and have not regretted it. But that's me.
And I do hope things settle down for you and am sorry about the disability. Keeping a glass half full rather than half empty and a long-term outlook is the most I can offer.
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@EdJames as you @Applewood are two characters I really appreciate around here.
@corbe Thanks. This place wouldn't be the same without you.
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I sincerely hope that I am not among those who have been an a$$ toward you @Applewood but if I have, let me take this occasion to apologize.
No need for an apology. :beer:
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No need for an apology. :beer:
:beer:
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FWIW, the total Dow loss today is 800.49.
And @EdJames
Thank you for your response. I will be talking to my adviser on Friday.
And I appreciate you not being an ass toward me. We might not agree about Trump and where this country is headed, but there is such a thing as disagreeing without being disagreeable. Glad you understand that.
Certainly talk to your advisor. For what its worth; investment advice from a very well known investment advisor that doesn't work on commission in our area:
www.reznywealth.com/media/investment-economic-strategy-updateaugust-13-2019 (http://www.reznywealth.com/media/investment-economic-strategy-updateaugust-13-2019)
And this:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-yield-curve-us-consumers-will-offset-a-recession-says-economist-2019-08-15?mod=mw_theo_homepage (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget-the-yield-curve-us-consumers-will-offset-a-recession-says-economist-2019-08-15?mod=mw_theo_homepage)
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@libertybele
Thank you for your help. My advisor (actually, I have a team) does not work on a commission. The team provides me with daily info on the markets, keeps a close watch on what I have and provides regular updates. The guy I'm talking to tomorrow always tells me to "stop worrying." He will probably say that when I talk to him tomorrow. LOL
I think the MarketWatch article is the first one I've read that says a recession could be offset. Everything I've been reading over the last several months say we are headed for a recession. who to believe? I don't know.
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FWIW: As of a few minutes ago, the Dow was up a modest 48.95.
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The Media has gotten their marching orders from the DNC - Start talking down the economy. So predictable.
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The Media has gotten their marching orders from the DNC - Start talking down the economy. So predictable.
It's predictable because it has worked in the past. As Cora the Coffee Lady once said, "When you find something that works, you stick with it!"
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The Media has gotten their marching orders from the DNC - Start talking down the economy. So predictable.
As sure as the sun comes up in the morning!
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@libertybele
Thank you for your help. My advisor (actually, I have a team) does not work on a commission. The team provides me with daily info on the markets, keeps a close watch on what I have and provides regular updates. The guy I'm talking to tomorrow always tells me to "stop worrying." He will probably say that when I talk to him tomorrow. LOL
I think the MarketWatch article is the first one I've read that says a recession could be offset. Everything I've been reading over the last several months say we are headed for a recession. who to believe? I don't know.
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FWIW: As of a few minutes ago, the Dow was up a modest 48.95.
It is difficult to say. We've worked with the same advisor for over 20 years ... and we are still invested -- though set up so we get income from dividends. The other advisor with the video is fee only and he's looked up to in this area.
It's a hard call. We're in the same spot -- retired -- but an annuity wasn't the answer for income either and the fee only advisor is dead set against them as well.
Perhaps holding some physical gold? If the bottom falls out, it will still have some value.
Anyways, best of luck to you.
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It is difficult to say. We've worked with the same advisor for over 20 years ... and we are still invested -- though set up so we get income from dividends. The other advisor with the video is fee only and he's looked up to in this area.
It's a hard call. We're in the same spot -- retired -- but an annuity wasn't the answer for income either and the fee only advisor is dead set against them as well.
Perhaps holding some physical gold? If the bottom falls out, it will still have some value.
Anyways, best of luck to you.
if the bottom falls out, stick with raw land. Rarely goes down in value and can always plant potatoes to survive.