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Recession Odds Collapse from 70 Percent to 19 Percent, Lowest Ever Recorded on Polymarket

Jasmyn Jordan 18 Jul 2025

The odds of a U.S. recession have fallen to their lowest level ever recorded on Polymarket, dropping from 70 percent in late April to just 19 percent this week.

The shift follows weeks of economic data indicating continued strength in consumer activity. According to Breitbart Business Digest, “Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8 percent in the first quarter, beating forecasts for 1.2 percent. Durable goods, services, and nondurables all contributed.” Additionally, rising consumer spending, along with stable inflation and real income gains, pointed to underlying momentum in the economy despite the first-quarter GDP contraction.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in March he did not expect a recession, attributing this to $1.3 trillion in new investment and President Trump’s tariff policy. “There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick stated. “You’re going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America as Americans.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed a similar view in May, telling Congress that the initial 0.3 percent GDP contraction may be revised upward. “There is nothing in the data that shows that we are in a recession,” Bessent remarked, citing a detailed analysis and  stronger-than-expected job growth.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/07/18/recession-odds-collapse-from-70-percent-to-19-percent-lowest-ever-recorded-on-polymarket/
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The landscape around Jasper is about as beautiful and pristine as it gets. I'm glad I can't get up there anymore - I would probably weep

Still lots of beautiful areas there that are untouched ... Jasper National Park is huge!
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TBR Kitchen / Re: How to Cook Fried Bread
« Last post by roamer_1 on Today at 07:13:10 pm »
Lots of butter and honey will work, too...

I can't even begin to tell you how many times - Just bannock wrapped around a stick, painted with butter and rolled in cinnamon sugar.

Good eats. The most common dessert in the woods, so long as the flour and baking powder holds out.  :beer:
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Remember those city-owned and operated grocery stores Zorro has promised? It seems it's actually been tried (and, of course, failed). It's funny how communism never actually delivers.


https://twitter.com/scottlincicome/status/1946238974227357771

Story at Washington Post
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TBR Kitchen / Re: How to Cook Fried Bread
« Last post by Smokin Joe on Today at 07:03:04 pm »
Try bannock or indian frybread sometime... SO crazy good! Superb as a pulled pork or beef or chicken taco made with fresh pico

Or if you really want to go crazy, make a frybread and load it up with pizza fixins and pass it under the broiler for a minute or two...

You'll never go back.  :cool:
Lots of butter and honey will work, too...
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Epstein Files / Re: Jeffrey Epstein Hoax
« Last post by Lando Lincoln on Today at 06:54:04 pm »
Oh I think it is exceedingly unlikely too, but don't piss in my pocket and tell me it's raining.

If that happens, it shan’t be me (my uncle always said shan’t).
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General Discussion / Re: !976 I don't do requests
« Last post by Bigun on Today at 06:51:41 pm »
txradioguy profile leads "Last active January 6, 2024."

And only now I realized he was gone...

He pretty much stopped posting here after he got out of the military and got a job in radio as a civilian. At least that's my recollection.
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How many layers of Government does it take to do nothing?
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Show us the evidence or name the source.  Otherwise, it's unsubtantiated gossip.
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The landscape around Jasper is about as beautiful and pristine as it gets. I'm glad I can't get up there anymore - I would probably weep. **nononono*
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