Author Topic: Groundhogs Make Lousy Meteorologists: A Roundup of Rodent Forecasts  (Read 2798 times)

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Ah, Groundhog Day—that annual spectacle where every February 2, we wait with bated breath to hear the alleged forecast from a rodent on whether or not spring will arrive early. If the groundhog sees its shadow, that's supposed to mean six more weeks of winter, but if it doesn't, it means an early spring. If you don't have a local groundhog, you can always rely upon Punxsutawney Phil down in central Pennsylvania, alleged to have been alive for over a century through magic elixirs and claiming 100% accuracy in a nauseating display of kayfabe that requires an extreme level of suspended disbelief.

...and indeed, it's all bunk. First of all, in Punxsutawney Phil's case, the alleged groundhog's predictions, more often than not, don't even match the actual weather conditions on Groundhog Day. The Stormfax Almanac has tracked the conditions for the past 20 years at Punxsutawney and found that, in a shocking two-thirds of cases, the groundhog officially saw his shadow despite it being overcast, rainy or snowy. In fact, Phil's “Inner Circle” decides what he's going to see beforehand... and they're not saying how they do it.

But even so, and we actually assume that the groundhog is seeing or not seeing its shadow based on actual conditions (as is usually the case with most other prognosticating groundhogs), most groundhogs are actually wrong more often than they are right. Whereas even random chance would give most groundhogs a 50/50 chance at an accurate forecast (which is what you'll likely get from your Farmer's Almanac and its glorified horoscope), most objective measurements, as far as they can be discerned given the vagueness of it all, have estimated groundhogs as having somewhere between 25% and 45% accuracy, depending on the groundhog and the standard. In other words, you're more likely to get an accurate picture of the weather for February and March by following the opposite prediction of the groundhog! But how?

Well, consider. When do most areas have the most sunshine? Spring and summer! There's a number of reasons for this, but in general, most places have cloudier skies during the winter months. So, if we were to randomly pick a day during the winter and do what meteorologists like to call “forecast persistence” (that is, assume the weather isn't going to change much), it would in fact indicate an early spring if a shadow is seen and a longer winter if there is no shadow, since the conditions that cause sunny skies are more likely to happen on any given day (such as February 2) during a warmer pattern than a colder, more wintry one.

It's still not a perfect forecast (“reversing the polarity” still only gets to between 55% and 75%), since weather systems can and do change a lot in a six-week span, but it does serve as enough proof that groundhog lore is indeed bunk. Hence the title of this page: “Groundhogs make lousy meteorologists.”

Sorry to burst your bubble. Signed, a meteorologist

And now, for a roundup of what those little rodents predicted for the end of winter 2025:
  • Punsxutawney Phil: 6 more weeks
  • Holtsville Hal (NY-LI): 6 more weeks
  • Staten Island Chuck (NYC): Early spring
  • Malverne Mel (NY-LI): 6 more weeks
  • Dunkirk Dave (WNY): Early spring
  • Patty Pagoda (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Lawrenceville Lucy (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Uni of Myerstown (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Mount Joy Minnie (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Poor Richard of York (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Elliot of Columbia (PA): 6 more weeks
  • Octoraro Orphie of Quarryville (PA): Early spring
  • Octoraro Orphie (PA): 6 more weeks
  • French Creek Freddie (WV): Early spring
  • Buckeye Chuck (OH): Early spring
  • Woody of Howell (MI): Early spring
  • Chuckles of Manchester (CT): Early spring
  • General Beauregard Lee of Lilburn (GA): 6 more weeks
  • Birmingham Jill (AL): Early spring
  • Woodstock Willie (IL): Early spring
  • Jimmy of Sun Prairie (WI): Early spring
  • Shubenacadie Sam (NS): 6 more weeks
  • Fred la Marmotte de Val-d'Espoir (QC): plus 6 semaines
  • Wiarton Willie (ON): Early spring
  • Manitoba Merv (MB): Early spring
  • Balzac Billy (AB): Early spring
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Groundhogs Make Lousy Meteorologists: A Roundup of Rodent Forecasts
« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2025, 02:07:59 am »
Well, I live in ND where it is too cold for groundhogs.
Six more weeks is an early spring up here.
Four above and snowing out.
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Groundhogs Make Lousy Meteorologists: A Roundup of Rodent Forecasts
« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2025, 02:46:10 am »
One of the local TV weathercasters said Phil is correct around 39% of the time. May as well flip a coin.
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