Author Topic: Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe  (Read 58 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online rangerrebew

  • TBR Contributor
  • *****
  • Posts: 177,923
Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe
« on: January 30, 2025, 03:42:04 pm »
 
 
Deterring Russia: U.S. Military Posture in Europe
 

   
Brief by Seth G. Jones and Seamus P. Daniels

Published January 27, 2025
 
The Issue
Russia’s continuing conventional war in Ukraine, increase in sabotage and subversive activities in Europe, and threats of nuclear escalation pose a serious and long-term challenge to U.S., European, and international security. While the United States needs to press its European allies to increase their defense spending and capabilities, the United States also needs to maintain a resilient—and sustainable—long-term presence in Europe that is designed to deter Russian aggression and, if deterrence fails, fight and win a great power war.

Introduction
Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing war that has followed, have dramatically shifted the strategic landscape in Europe, triggering the most devastating war on the continent since World War II. More Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine than in all previous Soviet and Russian wars since World War II combined, including Russia’s bloody wars in Afghanistan and Chechnya.1 The Ukraine war has caused the most significant refugee crisis in Europe since World War II, driving over 6 million Ukrainian refugees to Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and other countries.2 The war has also had substantial humanitarian implications, causing widespread civilian deaths and destruction in Ukraine and disrupting public access to water, electricity, heating, health care, and education.3

Despite Russian aggression in Ukraine and increase in gray zone activity across Europe, there has been a robust debate about whether the United States should focus its defense priorities and military posture on the Indo-Pacific to counter China. While the Indo-Pacific is a strategically important region, the United States needs to be prepared to deter two major theater wars—one in Europe and the other in the Indo-Pacific—as well as ensure readiness for contingencies elsewhere, such as in the Middle East and Korean Peninsula. After all, Russia has invaded one country (Ukraine) and waged war in several others, such as Syria. China has not—at least not yet. In its approach to defense planning, the Trump administration should ensure that the allocation of limited forces between the two theaters is tailored to match the unique demands of each region while carefully managing risks and trade-offs.

In examining U.S. posture in Europe, this analysis asks three main questions. What are the main security threats in Europe for the United States and its allies? What are U.S. interests in Europe? What is the appropriate U.S. force posture in Europe? In answering these questions, this analysis comes to several broad conclusions.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/deterring-russia-us-military-posture-europe
The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.
Thomas Jefferson