The Trump FlexColumn: The promise and perils of a confident campaignMatthew Continetti
November 1, 2024The images are indelible: Donald Trump's mugshot. His visit to a New York City bodega. His bloody ear and face and raised fist after being shot. Standing before his name in lights at the RNC. Joining forces with RFK Jr. beneath sparkling fireworks. Praying at the grave of the Lubavitcher Rebbe. Serving French fries at McDonald's. Selling out Madison Square Garden. And then, this week, donning a safety vest and riding in a garbage truck.
If Donald Trump is elected president for a second time on Tuesday, such moments will have been signposts on the road to an extraordinary comeback. Trump's willingness to take risks, his boldness in appearing in places and situations where the old Republican Party feared to tread, his knack for the memorable photo and cutting riposte have defined his political career and the 2024 campaign.
This campaign is notable, moreover, for Trump's confidence in his team, and his team's confidence in their candidate and strategy. McDonald's, MSG, and the garbage truck are examples of a former president flexing his power to command attention, thrill supporters, and expose opponents as aloof and condescending. Such confidence has both strengths and weaknesses. It imbues a campaign with the élan of victory and the determination to succeed. But it may also blind a candidate to realities that limit his appeal.
Trump's confidence stems from the belief that he is stronger than he appears. And he appears strong. He is running ahead of his polls from 2016 and 2020. He is more popular than ever. His coalition is broader than before, reaching Hispanic voters, black men, young men, organized labor, and disaffected Democrats. Trump is also competitive among independents. The electorate leans Republican. Voters prefer the Trump years to the Biden-Harris years. Biden is unpopular and demonstrates on a regular basis why he is a liability. And Biden's chosen successor, lifted upward this summer on clouds of joy, has fallen back to earth.
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