Why Trump’s big polling lead might slip out from under him on Election Day

[mystery-ak]

Why Trump’s big polling lead might slip out from under him on Election Day
By
Ross O'Keefe
May 24, 2024 6:53 pm
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The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, founder of FiveThirtyEight, raised red flags on former President Donald Trump’s building momentum toward November’s general election Friday.

He pointed out how Trump’s momentum is “built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”

President Joe Biden previously led in that demographic by two points in the 2020 election, but politically unenthusiastic nonvoters have shifted to a 14-point lead for Trump in 2024. Biden has maintained a two-point lead over 2020 voters.

A lead among nonvoters, a constituency who has obviously not proven they will turnout at the polls, could make “it easy to imagine how [the race] could quickly become more volatile” in November.

Cohn notes that nonvoters’ “unusual significance” could create “major challenges for pollsters, who have long known that low-turnout voters are less likely to respond to political surveys,” and a regular pollster could underestimate Trump’s reach.

Millions of voters often vote in one presidential election and stay home for the next, and vice versa. This could refute Cohn’s own argument, as he later says, “Mr. Trump’s big edge among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be hugely important or even decisive.”

Cohn sums up the nonvoter situation well.

“Of course, it’s unlikely that disengaged, irregular voters have already formed solid plans about November,” he wrote. “There’s plenty of time for them to make up or change their minds about whom they might vote for — and about whether they’ll vote at all.”

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3017355/trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-election-day/

[Right_in_Virginia]

He pointed out how Trump’s momentum is “built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”

This    is exactly backwards.  Trump's gains are among those who are acutely aware of the inflation, migrant invasion, street crime, and Biden's lawfare.  They will be among this year's "across broken glass" voters.

[LMAO]

People traditionally do not pay more attention to the campaigns until after Labor Day. That's when elections are won or lost

[dfwgator]

I think it's Trump's to lose now.     Which of course is entirely possible,  but right now, he's riding high.

[Right_in_Virginia]

People traditionally do not pay more attention to the campaigns until after Labor Day. That's when elections are won or lost

People traditionally pay attention when their lives are affected and they can relate to current events.

[LMAO]

People traditionally pay attention when their lives are affected and they can relate to current events.

But they pay more attention to what the candidates themselves have to say after Labor Day.

[LMAO]

I think it's Trump's to lose now.     Which of course is entirely possible,  but right now, he's riding high.

A year ago, Trump had no chance. But Biden's decline is getting so bad that every trick his handlers try to hide it is failing. It's a toss up now

[dfwgator]

A year ago, Trump had no chance. But Biden's decline is getting so bad that every trick his handlers try to hide it is failing. It's a toss up now

I think the Bronx rally was a turning point.     He needs to stay on message, and not get dragged back into the 2020 election stuff.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

But they pay more attention to what the candidates themselves have to say after Labor Day.

I think that's less true than it used to be generally, but particularly with these two guys.   Normally, the unknown is the challenger, because people already know the incumbent.  Or in some elections, there is no incumbent so there are two unknowns.

But these guys and what they would do/have done as President is already familiar.  Their words on the campaign trail are going to matter much less than normal, they'll instead be judged on their records.  And the closer we get to the election, the less time there will be for things in the real world to change enough to make a difference.

So while I think the polls will still move between now and November, the magnitude of that movement will be less than in prior elections.

[catfish1957]

A year ago, Trump had no chance. But Biden's decline is getting so bad that every trick his handlers try to hide it is failing. It's a toss up now

My wife and I were caretakers of her parents who succumbed to Alzheimers a number of years  ago.  Biden's decline is so similar to theirs in scope and progression.  I can say with 99.9999% certainty, that he won't survive another term.  And demise is realistically in about 2 years, maybe a tad more.

[LMAO]

My wife and I were caretakers of her parents who succumbed to Alzheimers a number of years  ago.  Biden's decline is so similar to theirs in scope and progression.  I can say with 99.9999% certainty, that he won't survive another term.  And demise is realistically in about 2 years, maybe a tad more.

That walk he does I’ve also seen before in  patients suffering from dementia. It’s almost like a Parkinson’s walk.

And I agree with you. If he gets reelected, there is no way he’s going to finish a second term. Either he’ll get so bad that he’ll have to step down or death.


He can no longer successfully read off a Teleprompter. His handlers are unable to successfully hide his decline from the press or the public.

If Trump wins, this will be the issue.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

My father passed from dementia, as did my father in law. Seen it up close over an extended period, and there is zero question Biden has it.  The walk, the way his mouth moves, etc..

Those who have been around it know it when they see it.

[cato potatoe]

Did y’all see his press briefing with the Kenyan president?  It was obvious that much of the event was pre-scripted.  Joe read most of his answers, and I still had an easier time deciphering the Kenyan president. 

Anyway, the election should not be close.  If republicans lose, they are 100% responsible for not finding a better candidate.

[GtHawk]

Did y’all see his press briefing with the Kenyan president?  It was obvious that much of the event was pre-scripted.  Joe read most of his answers, and I still had an easier time deciphering the Kenyan president. 

Anyway, the election should not be close.  If republicans lose, they are 100% responsible for not finding a better candidate.

Are you talking about Barry, or the other guy from Kenya?

Pretty soon the only time the public will see Joe speaking it will be pre recorded and look something like this


That Rodenberry, he had a knack for seeing into the futuere

[catfish1957]

I think Pedo Joe is the reason why AI has been sped up in devlopment and implementation. 

Pretty soon we will get canned AI speeches on the TeeVee, and the dims will eat it up.   All hail....POTUS Max Headroom. 

[DefiantMassRINO]

The point of polls giving Trump a lead is to gaslight the MAGA's into believing the 2024 Election will be stolen and "inspire" them to engage in violent insurrection.

The point of polls giving Biden the lead is to convince Dems that Joe is still "The Guy".

Polls are just another propaganda tool meant to bend thought and sentiment in a manner prescribed by some Machiavellian svengali lurking in the shadows.

[libertybele]

The point of polls giving Trump a lead is to gaslight the MAGA's into believing the 2024 Election will be stolen and "inspire" them to engage in violent insurrection.

The point of polls giving Biden the lead is to convince Dems that Joe is still "The Guy".

Polls are just another propaganda tool meant to bend thought and sentiment in a manner prescribed by some Machiavellian svengali lurking in the shadows.

Violent insurrection by MAGA or MAGA blamed for a violent insurrection??? I'll vote with the later.  J6 is/was an example and a warning shot for his supporters.

Polls cannot be trusted; nor can our government.  MAGA is a movement that is alive and IMO growing.  Perhaps to an extreme that martial law will be declared before election day.

I'm still waiting to see what ole evil Joe has up his sleeve come September at the UN summit.

[LMAO]

The point of polls giving Trump a lead is to gaslight the MAGA's into believing the 2024 Election will be stolen and "inspire" them to engage in violent insurrection.

The point of polls giving Biden the lead is to convince Dems that Joe is still "The Guy".

Polls are just another propaganda tool meant to bend thought and sentiment in a manner prescribed by some Machiavellian svengali lurking in the shadows.

@DefiantMassRINO

Then why is Joe Biden’s approval rating at around 36%? If polls were meant to convince Democrats that Joe was still “the guy,” why wouldn’t they put his approval rating in the 50% range?


I believe whoever loses this November, the losing candidates supporters will be violent. Trump supporters got violent at the Capitol on January 6 but they were riots in DC from the left when Trump was being inaugurated on January 2017. This Is the result of what happens when people refuse to accept election results

Maybe we’ll just have to shrug our shoulders that every four years in January we’ll have to experience a riot.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=SCu2gxVZ4E8

[DefiantMassRINO]

Biden's side is using the fear of a 2nd Trump term to motivate Dems to show up to the polls.

Dems have to use fear of a 2nd Trump term to get malcontents to show up and vote against Trump.

For most voters, there's no good reason to vote for Biden.

Biden's wrong policies have helped a select few at the expense of the many.

[Fishrrman]

"Why Trump’s big polling lead might slip out from under him on Election Day"

It's called the underground and above-ground election apparatus, and I've been posting about it here for years now:

https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,419614.msg2325876.html#msg2325876
and
https://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,419737.msg2325220.html#msg2325220