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Why Trump’s big polling lead might slip out from under him on Election Day
mystery-ak:
Why Trump’s big polling lead might slip out from under him on Election Day
By
Ross O'Keefe
May 24, 2024 6:53 pm
.
The New York Times’s Nate Cohn, founder of FiveThirtyEight, raised red flags on former President Donald Trump’s building momentum toward November’s general election Friday.
He pointed out how Trump’s momentum is “built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”
President Joe Biden previously led in that demographic by two points in the 2020 election, but politically unenthusiastic nonvoters have shifted to a 14-point lead for Trump in 2024. Biden has maintained a two-point lead over 2020 voters.
A lead among nonvoters, a constituency who has obviously not proven they will turnout at the polls, could make “it easy to imagine how [the race] could quickly become more volatile” in November.
Cohn notes that nonvoters’ “unusual significance” could create “major challenges for pollsters, who have long known that low-turnout voters are less likely to respond to political surveys,” and a regular pollster could underestimate Trump’s reach.
Millions of voters often vote in one presidential election and stay home for the next, and vice versa. This could refute Cohn’s own argument, as he later says, “Mr. Trump’s big edge among nonvoters means the exact number of new voters could be hugely important or even decisive.”
Cohn sums up the nonvoter situation well.
“Of course, it’s unlikely that disengaged, irregular voters have already formed solid plans about November,” he wrote. “There’s plenty of time for them to make up or change their minds about whom they might vote for — and about whether they’ll vote at all.”
more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3017355/trumps-big-polling-lead-might-slip-election-day/
Right_in_Virginia:
--- Quote ---He pointed out how Trump’s momentum is “built on gains among voters who aren’t paying close attention to politics, who don’t follow traditional news and who don’t regularly vote.”
--- End quote ---
This pointing-up is exactly backwards. Trump's gains are among those who are acutely aware of the inflation, migrant invasion, street crime, and Biden's lawfare. They will be among this year's "across broken glass" voters.
LMAO:
People traditionally do not pay more attention to the campaigns until after Labor Day. That's when elections are won or lost
dfwgator:
I think it's Trump's to lose now. Which of course is entirely possible, but right now, he's riding high.
Right_in_Virginia:
--- Quote from: LMAO on May 25, 2024, 02:14:57 am ---People traditionally do not pay more attention to the campaigns until after Labor Day. That's when elections are won or lost
--- End quote ---
People traditionally pay attention when their lives are affected and they can relate to current events.
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