The 2024 Electoral College map
By
Byron York
May 10, 2024 12:14 pm
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THE 2024 ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP. Historically speaking, the 2024 presidential campaign is at a pretty advanced stage. At this point in some earlier races, we didn’t even know for sure who the candidates would be. Now, both parties have made clear their choice of nominee, the earliest that has ever happened, and we’ve been in general election mode for quite a while.
And that means it’s time to pay serious attention to the Electoral College map. I often use a site called 270towin.com, referring to the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency. You can set the map to show the 2020 Trump-Biden results and then mess around with what the electoral totals would be if this or that state changed one way or the other.
Start by going back a few years. Former President Donald Trump won in 2016 by winning all the states Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) won in 2012 and adding victories in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. It was a stunning 306 to 232 victory in the Electoral College. For years, many analysts had seen the upper Midwestern states as part of a Democratic “blue wall,” and Trump just smashed it down.
Trump lost in 2020 by holding most of the states he won in 2016 but losing Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The results in some of those states were quite close, but in the Electoral College, Joe Biden won 306 to 232.
So now, with a Trump-Biden rematch, what does Trump have to do to win? The first thing to say is that the number of electoral votes in some states has changed because of the 2020 census. For example, in 2020 Trump won 38 votes for winning Texas. He will win 40 for winning Texas in 2024. Biden won 55 votes for winning California in 2020. He will win 54 by winning in 2024. Biden won in 2020 with 306 electoral votes. If he won the same states today, he would win 303 electoral votes and Trump would win 235.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/2999605/the-2024-electoral-college-map/
