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Why I think the accurate forecaster predicting a Biden win is wrong

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mystery-ak:
May 1, 2024
Why I think the accurate forecaster predicting a Biden win is wrong
By Andrea Widburg

I have been brooding for days about a story in the Daily Mail that offers an expert’s prediction about who will win in 2024, based on his analysis of past election data: He’s calling it for Joe Biden. Normally, Allan Lichtman is worth taking seriously because he’s predicted the popular vote winner every year since 1984. However, 2024 is an anomalous year, and I think (and hope) that this year, he misunderstands the operative facts.

According to the Daily Mail:

    A historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has declared that 'a lot would have to go wrong' for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump - in November.

    Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, devised a system, which he terms '13 Keys', and wrote a 1980s book explaining the idea.

    He says the technique enables him 'to predict the outcome of the popular vote solely on historical factors and not the use of candidate-preference polls, tactics or campaign events.'

    Despite polls showing Biden in trouble nationally and behind in several swing states, Lichtman believes its [sic] still in the president's favor to retain office, with two of his 13 keys - lack of serious primary challenge and incumbency - already in Biden's favor.

All thirteen keys are as follows:

    Which party controls the House in the midterms
    Whether someone is challenging the incumbent in the primaries
    The fact that one of the candidates is the incumbent
    Whether there’s a significant third party
    Short-term economic prospects
    Long-term economic prospects
    Whether the incumbent brought about major changes in American policies
    Social unrest
    Scandal
    Major military and foreign policy failures
    Major military and foreign policy successes
    Incumbent’s charisma
    Challenger’s charisma

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/05/why_i_think_the_accurate_forecaster_predicting_a_biden_is_wrong.html

Smokin Joe:
None of the usual factors (like who won 'bellweather' states) overcame the FRAUD.

It is virtually guaranteed that this time the Fraud will be even more intense and surgically precise to capture those races the Communists want to win.

Failing that, there will be vicious and widespread rioting, likely conducted by Soros funded illegals and others who couldn't tell you what the 'cause' is, (because it's always about The Revolution!).

Enough chaos, there will be a crisis (which won't be wasted) and no election.

unite for individuality:
Joe Biden's ability to win ANY presidential election is about as good as
Stephen Hawking's ability to win a marathon!

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