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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Presidential Campaign: By the Numbers

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libertybele:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Presidential Campaign: By the Numbers

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling as high as 16% in some national presidential surveys. While not enough to win the presidency, it’s certainly enough to spoil another candidate’s bid for the White House.

What’s not immediately clear is which candidate.

Nationally, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck, both polling at 46%, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released Wednesday. When Kennedy is added into the mix, both candidates lose the same percentage of votes, with Biden and Trump polling at 37% and Kennedy at 16%. A Decision Desk HQ poll, which averages 130 presidential polls, shows the same thing: a dead heat between Trump and Biden when Kennedy is in the race.

A well-documented lack of enthusiasm for a potential rematch between Biden and Trump has pushed some voters to look for a third option. And while a small number of third-party or independent candidates have joined the race, Kennedy is the most prominent of them.

It remains to be seen which party’s standard-bearer will be affected more by Kennedy if he’s on the ballot in November. A lifelong Democrat turned independent, his environmentalist background and legacy last name could pull Democrats from Biden. But the noted vaccine skeptic who has publicly advanced a number of conspiracy theories could very well appeal to members of the same anti-establishment faction that have thus far cast their lot with Trump.

In the political website FiveThirtyEight’s collection of favorability polls, 37.7% of Americans polled have a favorable opinion of Kennedy, compared to Trump’s 42.1% and Biden’s 39.9%. Of course, no level of support matters if Kennedy can’t get on the ballot – and some states aren’t making it very easy...............

..................Currently, Trump is ahead in swing states Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. Trump and Biden are tied in swing states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Richards says Kennedy seems to be pulling votes from both candidates. Regardless, Kennedy has the potential to cause either candidate to lose a swing state by a narrow margin, he says.............................

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-04-26/robert-f-kennedy-jr-s-presidential-campaign-by-the-numbers

libertybele:
Below is a link to his ballot access stats.  With only about 6 mos  left to qualify, I don't know if he'll meet the deadlines needed to get onto the ballot in all 50 states.  The two-party 'system' makes it much more difficult for a 3rd party.

https://www.kennedy24.com/ballot-access

Fishrrman:
bele wrote:
"With only about 6 mos  left to qualify, I don't know if he'll meet the deadlines needed to get onto the ballot in all 50 states."

He doesn't have to be on the ballot in all 50 states.
Only in those states where his presence on the ballot could "tip things" towards Mr. Trump.

10-12 states is where it could really make a difference.

libertybele:

--- Quote from: Fishrrman on April 27, 2024, 09:59:09 pm ---bele wrote:
"With only about 6 mos  left to qualify, I don't know if he'll meet the deadlines needed to get onto the ballot in all 50 states."

He doesn't have to be on the ballot in all 50 states.
Only in those states where his presence on the ballot could "tip things" towards Mr. Trump.

10-12 states is where it could really make a difference.

--- End quote ---

That may be, but I was looking at it from the standpoint that there would be no way he could win the presidency and people would be even less likely to vote for him being a 3rd candidate.

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