Israeli war cabinet green-lights military push into Rafah over Biden’s objections: report

[mystery-ak]

 Israeli war cabinet green-lights military push into Rafah over Biden’s objections: report
By Social Links for Chris Nesi
Published May 10, 2024, 5:14 p.m. ET

Israel’s war cabinet has approved expanding its Hamas battle plan to include Rafah, a move that could soon see Israel Defense Forces enter the densely populated city, which the Jewish state claims is the last bastion for the terrorists.

The decision came fewer than 48 hours after President Biden — dismayed by the rising civilian death toll in Gaza — told CNN that the US would withhold munitions shipments from Israel if it invaded Rafah.

Two sources with knowledge of the details claim Israel’s adapted war plan constitutes a “measured expansion” that won’t encroach on Biden’s “red line” on Rafah, Axios reported.

But a third source told the outlet that the approved expansion plan could potentially be viewed by the US as crossing it.

A majority of the war cabinet also reportedly told Israeli negotiators working on hammering out a hostage exchange and ceasefire deal with Hamas to continue their efforts despite the “expansion of the area of operation” approved Thursday night.

Hawkish cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to invade Rafah, voted to suspend negotiations, the outlet said.

more
https://nypost.com/2024/05/10/world-news/israeli-war-cabinet-green-lights-military-push-into-rafah-over-bidens-objections-report/

[mystery-ak]

 Israel ordering new evacuations in Rafah, preparing to expand operations
by Filip Timotija - 05/11/24 8:03 AM ET

Israel is ordering new evacuations in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where over one million Palestinians are sheltering, as the country is preparing to expand its military operations.

People in Rafah were told by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to head north to the Al Mawasi area. They were also instructed to head west of Gaza City as the IDF looks to brace for what they say is a Palestinian militant group Hamas’ rebuild in the area, according to IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee’s early Saturday post on social media platform X.

The call for Palestinians to flee the area comes as Israel has faced opposition internationally in its quest to perform a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah. President Biden said earlier this week that he would withhold sending bombs to Israel if the country does go ahead with a full-blown operation in Rafah. 

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), one of the major aid agencies providing food, shelter and medicine to Palestinians, said that “at least” 300,000 people are affected by the new notifications to move out.

The agency estimated that around 150,000 people have fled Rafah since Monday.

more
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4657916-israel-orders-new-evacuations-rafah-prepares-expand-operations/

[mountaineer]

Some analysis:

Andrew Fox
@Mr_Andrew_Fox
The IDF are conducting another assault in the North of Gaza, around Jabalia (see @2023gazawar’s excellent map, below). Critics are asking why the IDF are repeatedly going into areas they have already cleared and claiming this is a flaw in operational design. These critics have totally misunderstood what Israel is trying to do. Here’s what I think:

The answer is simple: the IDF have absolutely no intention of using the clear / hold / build counterinsurgency tactics the West tried in Afghanistan. Why would they? Those tactics were a disaster in Afghanistan.

The flaw in Western analysis is always the same: “we wouldn’t do it that way”. See Russia in Ukraine for another example of another country catching out Western analysts (me included).

If you look at what’s possible, what the best version of “success” looks like, and what Israel are doing… I put it to you that in Gaza we are seeing a masterpiece of operational design.

Ignore the “destroy Hamas” political rhetoric. The IDF are not *trying* to clear Gaza.

So what are they doing? What’s possible? Any kind of political solution? Definitely not. No-one on the international stage has expressed any interest in helping with governance in Gaza. According to polling, 2% of Gazans support an Israeli-backed administration. The majority want Hamas back. Israel’s solution? Let them have Hamas.

But the version of Hamas they’ll get is one heavily degraded militarily, but most importantly, with vast swathes of their tunnels and civilian-embedded infrastructure destroyed.

“Never again is now” isn’t just an empty slogan. Israeli operational design isn’t built around destroying Hamas, or regime change, or political change in Gaza. Those things aren’t possible. The operation is built around making sure 7th October can never happen again. Absent the possibility of any enduring political solution, that’s what success for them looks like for Israel.

Israel have methodically razed what civilian-embedded Hamas infrastructure they could find in Gaza City, Khan Younis, and now Rafah.

They have secured the Netzarim corridor (middle of the map) to control freedom of movement from South to North. It looks like they are trying to do the same thing along the Philadelphi corridor and Gaza’s southern border with Egypt, to cut off the inflow of weapons and supplies to Hamas (see the blue, bottom right corner of the map as the IDF break in to Rafah).

Facial recognition software in controlled areas allows the IDF to stop known Hamas commanders moving around. This also allows the IDF to strike as and when concentrations of Hamas are identified, to degrade their manpower, then withdraw again (see the Shifa hospital operation and the current Jabalia operation).

At the same time they have destroyed buildings to create a 1km buffer zone around the Gaza border. This will prevent any repeat of 7 October. Nobody in Gaza is getting anywhere near the border.

The operational end state here is significant infrastructure destroyed, Hamas fighting capability degraded, and the border secure; with the IDF retaining the capability to strike into Gaza at will. All whilst shifting hundreds of thousands of civilians out of harm’s way and minimising innocent casualties (Hamas’ human shield tactics aside).

The downsides: the destruction of Hamas-infested civil infrastructure has caused enormous damage. Urban warfare always comes with civilian casualties. The Egyptians look very twitchy about Israeli control of the Southern border. This isn’t a long-term political solution. The destruction has, of course, drawn huge international condemnation. Failure to communicate the plan has damaged Israel’s international standing, and they have been crushed in the global information war for the narrative. But: none of these are show-stoppers yet, strategically speaking.

Debate the morality in the comments. But, militarily, this is quite brilliant operational design within the bounds of what was realistically possible.
2:31 PM · May 11, 2024