« previous next »
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?  (Read 435 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online mystery-ak

  • Owner
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 383,545
  • Gender: Female
  • Let's Go Brandon!
Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« on: April 20, 2024, 02:31:33 pm »
April 20, 2024
Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
By John Kudla

We are now roughly six and a half months from election day or election month, depending on your state’s election laws.   

Today, we’ll focus on Joe Biden’s recent polling surge, as shown in the Real Clear Politics Poll Average of Trump vs Biden.  You will note Trump is up over Biden by a whopping 0.4 percentage points.  If we remove the possible outlier Rasmussen survey from the average, showing Trump at +8, Joe Biden would be ahead by 0.4.  Republicans might be dismayed by this, and Democrats encouraged.

In January of this year, Trump was ahead of Biden by +4.  Since then, the poll average has tightened.  Is this real, or is there something else going on?

Before getting into some poll internals, let’s see how a few polls have changed since the beginning of 2024.  A good one to start with is Emerson.

1/26  Trump +1

2/13  Trump +1

3/05  Biden +2

4/02  Trump +1

4/16  Trump +3

Next, let’s look at the Economist/YouGov Poll.

1/07  Tie

1/14  Biden +1

1/21  Trump +1

1/28  Biden +1

2/04  Trump +1

2/11  Tie

2/18  Trump +1

2/25  Tie

3/03  Trump +2

3/10  Trump +2

Finally, let’s look at the Quinnipiac Poll.

1/25  Biden +6

2/15  Biden +4

3/21  Biden +3

Looking at the poll trend rather than the chatter, you might conclude that Trump was slowly gaining strength.  But the RCP polling average contains different surveys in different combinations, some of which shouldn’t be included.  For example, the Reuters poll is all over the map on results and highly inconsistent regarding the number of voters included from poll to poll.  Here are the numbers.

more
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/04/is_biden_s_poll_surge_for_real.html
Logged
Proud Supporter of Tunnel to Towers
Support the USO
Democrat Party...the Party of Infanticide

“Therefore do not worry about tomorrow, for tomorrow will worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own.”
-Matthew 6:34

Offline Hoodat

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 36,609
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2024, 02:42:05 pm »
Is the Pope Catholic?
Logged
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Online Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 80,228
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #2 on: April 20, 2024, 05:21:00 pm »
Logged
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Online catfish1957

  • Laken Riley.... Say her Name. And to every past and future democrat voter- Her blood is on your hands too!!!
  • Political Researcher
  • *****
  • Posts: 31,520
  • Gender: Male
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2024, 05:25:48 pm »
No offense, but Rasmussen is about the only example of the lot that doesn't employ push polling or some other stealth biasing mechanism.

Dismissing it as an outlier is absurd.
Logged
I display the Confederate Battle Flag in honor of my great great great grandfathers who spilled blood at Wilson's Creek and Shiloh.  5 others served in the WBTS with honor too.

Online Wingnut

  • That is the problem with everything. They try and make it better without realizing the old is fine.
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 26,600
  • Gender: Male
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #4 on: April 20, 2024, 07:08:05 pm »
Logged
I am just a Technicolor Dream Cat riding this kaleidoscope of life.

Offline libertybele

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 57,474
  • Gender: Female
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2024, 07:34:19 pm »
Who cares about polls???  :shrug:
Logged
Romans 12:16-21

Live in harmony with one another; do not be haughty, but associate with the lowly, do not claim to be wiser than you are.  Do not repay anyone evil for evil, but take thought for what is noble in the sight of all.  If it is possible, so far as it depends on you, live peaceably with all…do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good.

Online Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 80,228
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2024, 08:33:26 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on April 20, 2024, 07:34:19 pm
Who cares about polls???  :shrug:

Not I.  They are engineered to sway public opinion, not measure it as they claim.
Logged
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline Hoodat

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 36,609
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #7 on: April 20, 2024, 08:37:34 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 20, 2024, 08:33:26 pm
Not I.  They are engineered to sway public opinion, not measure it as they claim.

Polls are the media's way of gauging the effectiveness of their propaganda efforts.
Logged
If a political party does not have its foundation in the determination to advance a cause that is right and that is moral, then it is not a political party; it is merely a conspiracy to seize power.

-Dwight Eisenhower-


"The [U.S.] Constitution is a limitation on the government, not on private individuals ... it does not prescribe the conduct of private individuals, only the conduct of the government ... it is not a charter for government power, but a charter of the citizen's protection against the government."

-Ayn Rand-

Online Cyber Liberty

  • Coffee! Donuts! Kittens!
  • Administrator
  • ******
  • Posts: 80,228
  • Gender: Male
  • 🌵🌵🌵
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2024, 08:42:54 pm »
Quote from: Hoodat on April 20, 2024, 08:37:34 pm
Polls are the media's way of gauging the effectiveness of their propaganda efforts.

That is why I either lie like a rug to pollsters, or I don't respond.
Logged
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Online rustynail

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6,133
Re: Is Biden’s Poll Surge for Real?
« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2024, 09:12:55 pm »
Feel the earth shaking Joementum!
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »