What New 2024 Polling in Six Key Swing States Reveals
Guy Benson
6–7 minutes
Let's extend our polling analysis streak. On Monday, we broke down a fresh New York Times survey, noting major concerns for President Biden in the data, despite his marginal improvement in the series. Yesterday, we underscored additional evidence pointing to former President Trump's strength among 'low propensity' and unregistered voters, which presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Republicans this fall. Today, let's examine new numbers from Echelon Insights, which conducted a survey of voters across half-a-dozen crucial battleground states, commissioned by the conservative Heritage Foundation. The results look strikingly familiar, as compared to similar batches of polling released in recent months:
In this data set, Trump leads modestly-to-comfortably in five of the six states surveyed, and is essentially tied in the sixth. I've written previously that it's ludicrously early to draw any strong conclusions from polling, but also that polling at this stage may be more useful than usual, considering that both presumptive major party nominees have universal name recognition. It's a rematch between two presidents, about whom everyone has fairly entrenched opinions. If the projections embedded above reflect November's outcomes, with all else being equal, Trump would win the presidency with over 300 electoral votes. But will all else be equal? There are any number of factors that could worsen the incumbent's weak standing, while other scenarios could strengthen his position. Democrats will likely heavily outspend Trump and the Republicans, which will matter both in terms of messaging, and 'ballots-in-hands' ground game.
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https://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2024/04/17/what-new-2024-polling-in-six-key-swing-states-reveals-n2637861
