Uncertainty In Natural Forcing From Wildfire, Dust Aerosols 2 Times Larger Than Total CO2 Forcing
By Kenneth Richard on 22. March 2024
The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate.
It has been estimated that the total change in climate forcing (radiation imbalance) from the 1750 to present CO2 concentration increase has been 1.82 W/m².
Image Source: Feldman et al., 2015
New research suggests today’s climate models omit an “important perturbation to Earth’s energy balance” because they fail to include the natural climate forcing potential from aerosols produced by wildfires and dust loading.
Climate models expressly assume this non-volcanic natural aerosol forcing is not present, or 0.0 W/m², even though it has been estimated that aerosol forcing from wildfire emissions alone – which were much higher during the preindustrial period before declining to today’s levels – deliver a “radiative effect in the current climate of -2 W/m².” Therefore, this natural climate forcing effect can be said to, by itself, fully cancel the surface forcing from the post-industrial CO2 increases.
https://notrickszone.com/2024/03/22/uncertainty-in-natural-forcing-from-wildfire-dust-aerosols-2-times-larger-than-total-co2-forcing/
