General Category > Elections 2024
Super Tuesday Live Thread
catfish1957:
For us political junkies, outside the November general elections, the most exciting date are the Super Tuesday Primaries.......
A lot at stake this Tuesday, and on the agenda are these states:
Alabama
Alaska - (Republican primary)
American Samoa - (Democratic caucus)
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Iowa - (Democratic primary)
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
I think everyone agrees that the it is a far gone conclusion that outside some sleazy dim shell game, that November race will be Trump v. Biden. So the drama will be minimal in the big picture, but there are some side stories and numbers to watch Tuesday that are important to the narrative.
1. Overall democratic turnout- If these numbers are low, they will either be inidicative of strong Haley cross over, or a litumus test of tepid support for Biden. This will be guaged by the dnc to determine whether the GOTV may be too daunting this year, and a factor of whether dnc might want to switch horses at or just before the convention.
2. Haley Support- Remains to be seen if Haley even has a chance to break 40% in any of the 15 states. VT, and VA, are her best chances. But I give her zero chance of winning any primary beside DC. Question wil be Wednesday, how does she exit with any shred of dignity or political Capital left.
3. MAGA factor- Lots and lots of Senate and House races that will be a barometer of Trump's influence.
4. Watch issue exit polling closely, and the percentage spread of how the voting populus views the border crisis. Laken Riley's death will be fresh on the voter's mind, and there is a good chance her name may be a rallying cry for angry anti-Biden sentiment.
It's going to be interesting, and a pivitol date for the direction this thing takes.
Polls?
Like them, or hate them. It's all we got for macro-trending. I've taken the most recent poll, that are from varying pollsters. Just for info only (Source-RCP, and specific pollster):
VA- Trump +8
CA- Trump +58
MI- Trump-+52
ME Trump- +42
VT- Trump +30
NY- Trump- +40
TX- Trump- +71
GA- Trump- +66
FL- Trump- +71
AZ- Trump-+52
IL- Trump +58
OH- Trump- +67
WI- Trump +42
AL- Trump- +75
OK- Trump- +77
TN- Trump- +70
MA- Trump- +41
MN- Trump- +62
NH- Trump +22
catfish1957:
Anyone voting today? Turnout? Moods? Late breaking news?
We've been blessed / cursed with one of the most closely watched local races in the country in my corner of SE Texas. The Phelan v. Covey race for state representative, has brought out all the guns. But behind the scenes this is an epic struggle between the MAGA and conventional GOP forces. And the center of that fight is Paxton v. Phelan There is a civil war within the GOP, and tonights results will say a lot.
libertybele:
--- Quote from: catfish1957 on March 05, 2024, 07:30:47 pm ---Anyone voting today? Turnout? Moods? Late breaking news?
We've been blessed / cursed with one of the most closely watched local races in the country in my corner of SE Texas. The Phelan v. Covey race for state representative, has brought out all the guns. But behind the scenes this is an epic struggle between the MAGA and conventional GOP forces. And the center of that fight is Paxton v. Covey There is a civil war within the GOP, and tonights results will say a lot.
--- End quote ---
Thanks for the information.
DefiantMassRINO:
I mailed in my Republican ballot. My wife had me put her sealed Dem mail-in ballot in the mail-in drop-off box outside Town Hall. (Ours is a mixed marriage.)
I haven't been to our town in-person voting place.
mystery-ak:
Il isn't in the Super Tues group...our primary is March 12th and I already sent in my ballot.
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