$10 Trillion in US Treasuries Coming to the Market in 2024

[Free Vulcan]

A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year, see the first chart below. The government budget deficit in 2024 will be $1.4 trillion according to the CBO, and the Fed has been running down its balance sheet by $60 billion per month.

The bottom line is that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024. That is more than one-third of US government debt outstanding. And more than one-third of US GDP.

This may be a particular challenge when the biggest holders of US Treasuries, namely foreigners, continue to shrink their share, see the second chart.

More fundamentally, interest rate-sensitive balance sheets such as households, pension, and insurance have been the biggest buyers of Treasuries in 2023, and the question is whether they will continue to buy once the Fed starts cutting rates.

https://apolloacademy.com/10-trillion-in-us-treasuries-coming-to-the-market-in-2024/

[libertybele]

Our debt is going to soon be felt globally -- then what?

Go back to the gold standard or will a foreign currency become dominant?

[catfish1957]

The only positive aspect of this story is around the long bonds.  Back in '94, average rates were about 7%.  This is basically allowing the U.S. to refinance several trillion at a 3 1/2% discount.  $TYX today is at 4.35% at par.

Downside?  Back then these were AAA rated, and didn't have the balooned deficits dragging them down as a pseudo equity play. 
We are two pieces of bad news like a combo of any of these to shrivel up the demand and bond prices.  Not a good outlook.

* BRICS adaptation (adoptation)
* Taiwan invasion
* ME Exapanded War
* Ukraine War expansion
* Tech or Banking Bubble burst
* Infrastructure crackature due to Southern Invasion
* And others that come to mind.

[catfish1957]

Our debt is going to soon be felt globally -- then what?

Go back to the gold standard or will a foreign currency become dominant?

Was yelling that 120 decibles forever, until the QE 1, QE 2, and QE 3 infusion in the late '00's   I think we are too deep now in the fiat shit to even consider that.  If we suddenly went to the Gold standard right now, it would be rightfully be perceived as a mass devaluation, and we would be servants to those nations who had at least some semblence of fiscal restraint.

[LMAO]

We are not going to get out of this mess without pain or disruptions

[catfish1957]

We are not going to get out of this mess without pain or disruptions

Amen.  After kicking the can down the road 10,000 times, what do you do when the can disinergrates. 

[LMAO]

Amen.  After kicking the can down the road 10,000 times, what do you do when the can disinergrates.

And, despite the issue being demagogued by both Biden and Trump, this cannot come even close to getting fixed without serious so-called entitlement reform

And this is one of the disappointments of DeSantis  not getting any traction. He was the only fiscal conservative in the race with the record to back it up.

What’s coming is unavoidable. It’s just a matter of when.

[LMAO]

It's ok, we'll all be dead in a few years anyway.  Climate change will kill us all.  Just ask the weather girl on Good Morning America who this morning said it's the warmest it's been in 100,000 years. 

I’ve been hearing it’s the warmest year ever since the 1980s

At that rate, we should all be well fried and crispy

[Fishrrman]

17-week treasury bills are paying a little over 5% right now.

I've never signed up directly with the Treasury Dept. to buy them at auction, but was thinking about it. Any advice or experiences to share?

[WhatWouldReaganDo]

17-week treasury bills are paying a little over 5% right now.

I've never signed up directly with the Treasury Dept. to buy them at auction, but was thinking about it. Any advice or experiences to share?

I buy t-bills through my brokerage account at Fidelity. No commission. No problems.

[LMAO]

I buy t-bills through my brokerage account at Fidelity. No commission. No problems.

Same here

[libertybele]

To me this indicates that China and other nations aren't buying our treasury notes, which is a huge problem.

As a side note; banks no longer have to keep on hand what their depositors have on record.  That's another huge problem.  So the gov't would cover deposits should they go belly up?  A gov't that is trillions of dollars in debt? I highly doubt it.

[Free Vulcan]

And, despite the issue being demagogued by both Biden and Trump, this cannot come even close to getting fixed without serious so-called entitlement reform

And this is one of the disappointments of DeSantis  not getting any traction. He was the only fiscal conservative in the race with the record to back it up.

What’s coming is unavoidable. It’s just a matter of when.

The $10T rollover this year will be on helluva test.