Steve Deace
@SteveDeaceShow
This will probably fall on deaf ears, but I just can't help myself. When I see something is true, and combine that with I how important I think it is to win this election, I feel compelled to speak up.
Elections are won in the suburbs. Repeat, elections are won in the suburbs.
There's more to it than this we could write a book about, but for now this is good enough. Republicans can't win urban areas, Democrats can't win rural areas.
Only 1 of the top 10 states in urban population % -- UT -- is a red state. The rest are either all blue (CA, NJ, NY, MA, etc) or swing (NV, AZ, FL).
Meanwhile, only 2 of the bottom 10 in urban population % are blue states (VT & ME). The rest are all red with one swing (NH).
https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/1747991807340777748Thus, the suburbs are the battle ground. Since exit polling began in 1972, the party that won the suburbs has won every single election.
In 2016, Trump won suburbans by 4 points. That, paired with his surge in rural support, was enough to win -- barely. Republicans have lost the suburbs in every cycle since, and thus lost.
In Iowa on Monday night, Trump could overcome under-performing his overall statewide turnout in suburban areas by as much as 10 points because we still have enough critical mass of rural voters who love him to overcome that deficiency. And in a Republican caucus, he can even still dominate (and did).
However, no such critical mass of rural voters exists in any of the states that will decide who wins the White House in 292 days -- AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, VA, and WI (120 total electoral votes).
To win any of those states, and a GOP POTUS nominee has to win a whopping 68% of the electoral college votes contained within those states to win the White House, you will have to win the suburbs.
8:38 AM · Jan 18, 2024
