The Decline of Deterrence
By Mike Coté on January 15, 2024
Deterrence – the ability to prevent enemies from acting against one’s interests by coercion or threat – has always been a mainstay of defense policy. The Romans used walls, outposts, and raids; the British Empire used its fleet and the threat of blockade; the United States and the Soviet Union used nuclear weapons. A quote from the British ‘invasion literature’ classic, The Invasion of 1910, sums up the idea perfectly: “To be weak is to invite war; to be strong is to prevent it.” Deterrence, however, is only as good as the resolve, consistency, and reputation of the power in question. A nation’s geopolitical status can change in an instant; as such, deterrence requires maintenance to remain credible over time. As is the case in life, it takes decades to cement a reputation, but seconds to lose it.
Over the past few years, the beach of American deterrence has eroded through the waves of foreign crises and the Biden administration’s failure to strengthen the proverbial protective dunes. Every additional crisis, if not responded to appropriately, eats away at America’s deterrent capability. Unfortunately, the White House has repeatedly neglected its responsibilities while further undermining deterrence through its policies and actions. As such, despite the stormy international weather, the ongoing decline of American deterrence is entirely avoidable.
The crux of deterrence is the belief that a nation’s enemies will face profound, disproportionate consequences for any malign action against said nation’s interests. Weak responses to attacks only embolden foes to continue up the escalation ladder, inevitably leading to worse outcomes. This was perhaps most infamously exhibited in the run-up to the Second World War, where Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan were allowed to gobble up territory and dominate their neighbors with nary a reply from the democratic West. By the time a serious effort was made, it was too late to avoid cataclysmic warfare. Proper deterrence requires an aggressive response which stirs fear in the enemy. This approach finds an eloquent expositor in Sean Connery’s character from the 1987 film The Untouchables, who describes the Chicago Way: “He pulls a knife, you pull a gun; he sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue.” Without the threat of truly disastrous defeat, many bad geopolitical actors will take risks to score a potential victory.
https://providencemag.com/2024/01/the-decline-of-deterrence/
