Seems to me that once the primary cycle begins, it will become difficult for ol' white joe to "withdraw" -- at least until the primaries are concluded (June?).
Consider -- if he were to withdraw halfway through the primary season, how would replacement candidates get onto the ballots (too late)? And how would the voters in the "early primary" states feel, having lost any influence they may have had, without a "repeat"?
Either during "the break" between the end of the primaries and the convention, or perhaps right at the beginning of the convention, ol' joe will announce that due to unforeseen circumstances, he will retire from the presidency in January 2025.
Once the primary season has ended, the delegates will have been chosen. But now ol' joe can "release" his delegates to vote for whomever they please (or perhaps for the "replacement candidate" of his recommendation, although it will certainly be someone NOT "chosen" by him). And the "superdelegates" will sway to wherever they're "directed", like wheat waving in the wind.
This is my prediction as to how ol' joe will make his exit.
"The Great Switcheroo" of 2024...
(one for the history books)