Author Topic: How Groupthink, Misinformation, And Lack Of Self-Correction Undermined Climate Science  (Read 260 times)

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Offline rangerrebew

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WRITTEN BY ROGER PIELKE JR. ON OCT 18, 2023. POSTED IN LATEST NEWS

How Groupthink, Misinformation, And Lack Of Self-Correction Undermined Climate Science

Over the past week, I have documented in two previous posts how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made a consequential error in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2013 in identifying RCP8.5 as the only legitimate baseline scenario for climate research and assessment.

Today in a third and final installment, I provide my explanation for the error — groupthink fueled by a misinformation campaign led by activist climate scientists. [emphasis, links added]


What I cannot explain is why the error has not since been corrected by the IPCC or others in authoritative positions in the scientific community.

In fact, the opposite has occurred — RCP8.5 remains commonly used as a baseline in research and policy, perhaps explaining why it continues to have many defenders.

The graph below shows the minimum radiative forcing 1 in the scenarios of the IPCC designated as baselines — where we thought we might be headed.

https://climatechangedispatch.com/how-groupthink-misinformation-and-lack-of-self-correction-undermined-climate-science/
The legitimate powers of government extend to such acts only as are injurious to others. But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods, or no god. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg.
Thomas Jefferson

Offline The_Reader_David

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All scientific enterprises that might impact public policy should have a "red team" consisting of the most eminent critics of the dominant theory, who should be funded at least as well as any project based on the dominant theory.

Despite the futility of long-term prediction of a non-linear dynamical system with multiple inputs, likely include some unknown unknowns, I'd really like to see what model would be built if one tried to model the earth's climate without assuming greenhouse gasses drove the warming from the end of the Little Ice Age around the middle of the Industrial Revolution to the present, and tried to honestly sort out the contributions of all known climate cycles, effects of both solar irradiance and solar magnetism modulating cosmic ray cloud seeding, greenhouse gas emission, soot emissions changing the albedo of ice packs, and land-use changes (including especially aggregate urban heat island effect).

We know the alarmists have falsely attributed to greenhouse gas emissions at least some warming due to aggregate urban heat island effects, because their models by and large are built using urban and suburban weather stations for the time sequences.  We also know they either ignore or falsely attribute to greenhouse gas warming, changes to ice pack albedo due to light absorbing impurities (e.g. soot).
And when they behead your own people in the wars which are to come, then you will know what this was all about.

Online Fishrrman

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What it used to be:
"Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it"...

Today:
"The weather is out of control, and we're going to do something about it -- by controlling YOU"...