Planning for the Next War Must Be a Mixture of Art & Science
In recent decades, military planning has leaned more heavily on science than art, but success in a peer-level fight will depend on commander’s intent and the art of warfare.
By Rear Admiral Patrick Piercey, U.S. Navy (Retired)
September 2023 Proceedings Vol. 149/9/1,447
THE AMERICAN SEA POWER PROJECT
Simple plans are the hardest to develop because they require critical thinking, creativity, and imagination to distill complex problems to their essence and develop approaches to solve them. Today, the national security environment is more complex and chaotic than in the late Cold War. The environment is characterized by great power competition and the increasing risk of great power conflict. The United States faces threats in more domains, including cyber and space, and the threats range from a multitude of state to nonstate actors. The nation, along with its allies and partners, is developing new resources and capabilities to counter these threats, but harnessing them effectively offers challenges.
Faced with growing complexity and chaos, can the U.S. military still develop and execute plans that are resilient and agile? With limited staff, time, logistics, and weapons, crafting perfect plans wastes resources, and the enemy gets a vote. “Understand the Adversary: Respect Their Intentions and Capabilities” is the first section in Naval History and Heritage Command’s paper on planning the Pacific war.1 Plans will be probed and tested by the enemy and, therefore, must be resilient and agile.
So, how does a staff develop winning plans at the operational level of war? The joint force has planning doctrine to achieve these characteristics, but operational design and the joint planning process (JPP) require focus and must incorporate both the art and science of war. Art weighs more heavily than science in operational design, but science is more essential to the planning process. Understanding the duality of art and science and the symbiotic relationship between operational design and the JPP are key.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/september/planning-next-war-must-be-mixture-art-science
