Maj. Bill Martin...
Quote from: jafo2010 on September 20, 2023, 10:37:06 pm
Regarding Point 1, when did Putin and his team ever give a crap about Russian lives let alone people of other nations? If they were to deploy nuclear weapons, even tactical nuclear weapons, they would blame NATO for nuclear weapons being used, they would not accept that responsibility.
They actually do care about ethnic Russian lives, and the Russian people will care even more. That's why they've tried to conscript as few ethnic Russians as possible. And nobody is going to believe that the West used nukes against Ukrainian troops. That isn't something that is going to go away quickly, either. It is going to be the permanent poisoning of the ground and water in both Ukraine and Russia, and perhaps in some other nations as well. How will the Turks react to that? How will Belarus react? That's kind of a sensitive topic over there after the whole Chernobyl thing....
The care of ethnic Russians is pure propaganda. If Putin does not care about Russians in Russia, he surely does not care about Russians in Ukraine. All a big fat lie. But it is the kind of propaganda to get folks riled up, just as when Hitler attacked Poland and blamed them for attacking Germany first. all poppycock. And I don't think Putin would care much about fallout, or ruining ground in Ukraine for 1,000 years. Putin is an amoral type of man that does not possess those sentiments. You are using your rational mindset to explain Putin, and he does not think like you, me or most in the western world.
Quote
Point 2...reaction by west...They would have to calculate our providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine or NATO's direct deployment of nuclear devices itself. Or they might bet we just do nothing, for if we arrange a nuclear deployment on Russia, what is to stop it escalating into a full blown nuclear exchange?
They don't know how we'd react -- that's the point. At the barest minimum, you're likely talking about Russian expulsion from every international organization in existence, and a hard embargo. You'd also like see other nations surrounding Russia doing their best to make military alliances with any nuclear power that will have them - China, India, Iran, etc.. Russia would turn itself into an international pariah overnight, and the only one the Russian people could blame for this would be Putin himself.
Russia is largely a pariah, and the Russian people still support Putin. I even know folks here in the states, working for the federal government, former Russian nationals, and they think Putin is righteous. Now, how stupid is that? You may or may not know, all airlines in Europe and airports are closed to Russia. The primary way in and out of Russia is through Turkey. Despite all the sanctions against Russia, life goes on there, and the sanctions have had little to no impact on the people of Russia. Much of the sanctions have been directed at the oligarchs, and with billions, they do not care either really. They are getting by just fine, the ones that Putin hasn't hit yet, that is. Anyone steps out of line, they get whacked. If anything, Putin is consolidating his power.
Quote
China condemning Russia. I doubt it. They haven't done so as yet. They have become more allied, and you can bet if Russia does deploy nuclear weapons, it is with the full agreement of China.
Well sure, but that's begging the question. There is absolutely no way in hell China would want Russia to open the Pandora's Box of using nuclear weapons. China, and Xi, are about business and economic growth. A first-use of nuclear weapons would have almost unimaginable negative consequences for world trade. There's no way in hell China would ever want that, so if you believe China's assent is required...that ain't going to happen.
What makes you think China would not approve? I think China would welcome a confrontation between Russia and the USA/NATO. They can sit on the sidelines and watch mostly. Even with nuclear weapons. Just like in the book/movie Sum of All Fears by Clancy, it would be very easy to escalate to the use of nuclear devices.
Much less be a question of "when not if", as you claimed. It is my humble belief that the world is building to a cataclysmic period in time like the late 30s and 40s of the last century. Too many super rich powerful people want to see the global population destroyed by any means and taken down to 50 - 500 million. They believe by doing so they are righteous and saving the planet. I think the probability is high for them getting exactly what they want by 2050.