https://www.newsweek.com/trump-isnt-winning-black-voters-hes-losing-white-voters-opinion-1826056In recent weeks, a chorus of conservative media personalities and Trump campaign surrogates have emerged to assure us the former president is poised to secure an unprecedented 20 percent of the Black vote in a rematch against President Biden next year. Such a performance would be a modern-day achievement for the Republican Party. But the chances of it happening are slim to none.
Our team analyzed every poll with publicly available crosstabs featured in RealClearPolitics in the month of August. Seven out of the nine studies showed Trump performing well below his 2020 levels with White voters. An average of all nine polls found Trump's lead over Biden with White voters has shrunk from 17 points in 2020 to just 9 points now.
Mathematically, it would be implausible for Trump to offset his losses with White voters with gains among Black voters, since the former outnumber the latter by a ratio of about 7 to 1. For every one percentage point Trump loses among Whites, he would need seven percentage points among Blacks just to break even—a daunting task.
History offers a stark reminder of what Republicans can expect if Trump were to only win Whites by 9 points. In 2008, John McCain won White voters by 12, and still lost in a landslide while Democrats clinched 21 House seats.
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note: I found it incredibly difficult to excerpt the key points from this because it is so dense with valuable stats.
