Why San Francisco is the car break-in capital: Low-risk, high rewardhttps://hotair.com/john-s-2/2023/09/05/why-san-francisco-is-the-car-break-in-capital-low-risk-high-reward-n576049In case you’ve somehow missed all the news coming out of San Francisco for the past several years, the city has the highest rate of property crime in the country. The SF Chronicle published a story today asking the obvious question: “Why is it so bad here — and not elsewhere?” The answer the article comes to is not entirely satisfying but it does make some amount of sense. We’ll get to that in a moment, but first the article does admit there’s a possibility Prop 47 plays a role.
Lobbyists for retailers and some politicians have blamed Proposition 47, a 2014 law that mandated prosecutors charge thefts of under $950 as misdemeanors rather than felonies. While detractors of the law sometimes exaggerate Prop. 47’s effect on overall crime, with break-ins, at least, they’ve got a point. Researchers at the PPIC, including Lofstrom, found a link between Prop. 47 and a 9% statewide upswing in thefts, driven by auto burglaries, from 2014-16.
But car break-in rates began increasing in 2011, three years before Prop. 47 passed. Plus, the reform was statewide, and other cities didn’t see their break-in rates rise to anywhere near this degree.
So Prop 47 probably contributes to the problem but it can’t explain it completely. Another possibility the authors consider is George Gascon who took over as DA in San Francisco in 2011, the same year the break-ins began to spike. Frankly, I think they’re on to something there but the article argues that, based on social science, the likelihood of arrest is a bigger deterrent than prosecution. So what is the likelihood of arrest for these crimes? It’s vanishingly small:
Effects do not necessarily have a single cause. Causes in this situation, IMO:
* Proposition 47 (I voted against it, as the effects were predictable);
* Fruitcake Prog DAs not prosecuting and under-charging;
* Reduction and elimination of bail;
* Police giving lower priority - = limited resources - to crimes they know won't be charged or will be plea-bargained down;
* The numerous ways in which SF coddles and enables - rather than treats - chemical addiction, mental illness, and improvident lifestyle choices.
Among my other similar opinions, I think the Sun will "rise" in the east tomorrow morning.