Polling Indicates Skipping the Debate Appears to Have Hurt, Not Helped, Donald TrumpBy Joe Cunningham
August 28, 2023
Donald Trump is resolute in his belief that he doesn't need to debate and that none of the other candidates deserve to be on stage with him. So, when last week's debate rolled around, the Republican frontrunner was notably absent. But, looking at the polling numbers, that appears to have cost Trump in ways he was not prepared for.
A string of polls in the wake of last week's debate indicate that Trump's decision may have actually hurt him, rather than help. Overall, his national average has dipped from 54.3 percent to 53 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. There is no state-level polling among early primary states to see if there is an effect on that level.
It also suggests the latest indictment against Trump did not provide a bump in the polling as it had previously.
A poll from Emerson out Monday morning explains some of the effects the debate had on candidate perceptions.
“While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said.
“Different candidates have been able to pull varying demographic support from the Trump base, for example Mike Pence who saw an overall four-point bump in voter support was able to increase his support in the Midwest from 4% to 13% of the vote, while Trump saw his Midwest support drop from 54% to 42% after the debate,” Kimball said. “Nikki Haley’s support increased from about 2% to 9% among voters over 50 while Trump’s support dropped within this age group from about 56% to 49% after the debate.”
Overall, 57% of Republican Primary voters say they will definitely vote for the candidate they selected, a five point decrease from last week. Forty-three percent say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.
“There appears to be a softening of support for Trump since last week’s survey, where 82% of Trump voters said they would definitely support him, compared to 71% after the debate. DeSantis’s support also softened from 32% who would definitely support to 25%, while Ramaswamy support remained consistent from 47% to 45%,” Kimball said.
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Source:
https://redstate.com/joesquire/2023/08/28/polling-indicates-skipping-the-debate-appears-to-have-hurt-not-help-donald-trump-n2163129
