Author Topic: Can China Be Deterred From Attacking Taiwan?  (Read 479 times)

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Offline rangerrebew

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Can China Be Deterred From Attacking Taiwan?
« on: August 03, 2023, 04:36:46 pm »
Can China Be Deterred From Attacking Taiwan?
By Donald Stoker
June 30, 2023AFP Pool

SPECIAL SERIES:
Best Defense
Before tackling this question, we must set the analytical stage by understanding the parameters for US action: the political aims and grand strategy of the Joseph Biden administration. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken made clear in May 7, 2021 remarks to the United Nations Security Council that the US political aim is maintaining the “rules-based international order.” This is the international system of diplomatic and economic organizations, norms, and responsibilities under which nations have interacted since the Second World War but particularly since the end of the Cold War. Additionally, Biden’s Indo-Pacific Strategy says the administration seeks a free and open Pacific and specifically calls-out China as a threat, saying: “The PRC’s [People’s Republic of China’s] coercion and aggression spans the globe, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific.”

It is important to remember that deterrence is not a political aim but a grand strategy. Combining usage of facets of national power can produce a grand strategy of deterrence. Success here can enable achievement of the administration’s aim of preserving the “rules-based international order.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin tells us in the new National Defense Strategy that China is a “pacing threat” and that America’s strategy—really grand strategy—is “integrated deterrence,” described as “using every tool at the Department’s disposal, in close collaboration with our counterparts across the U.S. Government and with Allies and partners, to ensure that potential foes understand the folly of aggression.”

But can “integrated deterrence” prevent China from invading Taiwan? We tackle this by examining two significant US interactions with the Chinese Communist regime: the Korean War and the Vietnam War.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/06/30/can_china_be_deterred_from_attacking_taiwan_963424.html?utm_source=spotim&utm_medium=spotim_recirculation&spot_im_redirect_source=pitc&spot_im_comment_id=sp_DzWAHE1J_rcd200963424_c_2Rya4YL2tUAAsnOcoW2K2flgYX4&spot_im_highlight_immediate=true
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Offline sneakypete

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Re: Can China Be Deterred From Attacking Taiwan?
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2023, 10:35:36 pm »
They are not going to attack Taiwan.

They are too busy infiltrating Chi-Com agents into Taiwan to take it over peacefully in order to not ruin any profitable commercial activity for the Communists once they do take over. Once they have enough agents infiltrated,they will take over in an election and the new government will invite Red China to come in and take over.

Just like the European Communists are doing with America.

There really is very little actual difference between Chinese Communist leaders and Billionaire traders. Both are total control freaks and both want to be Masters of the Universe.
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Offline Free Vulcan

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Re: Can China Be Deterred From Attacking Taiwan?
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2023, 10:58:36 pm »
They are not going to attack Taiwan.

They are too busy infiltrating Chi-Com agents into Taiwan to take it over peacefully in order to not ruin any profitable commercial activity for the Communists once they do take over. Once they have enough agents infiltrated,they will take over in an election and the new government will invite Red China to come in and take over.

Just like the European Communists are doing with America.

There really is very little actual difference between Chinese Communist leaders and Billionaire traders. Both are total control freaks and both want to be Masters of the Universe.

@sneakypete

Very plausible scenario. They know chip production is Taiwan's golden goose. They will do their best to take over in a bloodless coup, and I don't think the Taiwanese will risk their livelihood to stand up to China.
The Republic is lost.