Alarm Goes Out: Trump Could Win

[Kamaji]

Alarm Goes Out:  Trump Could Win

Byron York
Aug 02, 2023

In the past few days, we've seen a number of political analysts come to a momentous conclusion. Actually, two momentous conclusions. The first is that it is unlikely anyone can catch former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The second is that it is entirely possible Trump, having won the GOP nomination, could go on to win the general election and become President Trump again.

Yes, the analysts include all the necessary caveats -- it's early, the situation is unprecedented, anything can happen, etc. But still: Sober observers are suggesting it's all over in the GOP primaries and game on in the general election. Their case was strengthened Monday morning with the release of a new New York Times poll showing Trump "leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate." Thirty-seven points is big, big, big. Other national polls have shown Trump with similar leads in the Republican race. The most recent surveys included in the RealClearPolitics average of polls have Trump ahead of DeSantis by, going backward in time, 36, 43, 44, 40, 32, 29 and 25 points.

The first analysis comes from Politico with the headline, "A DeSantis come-from-behind win is looking vanishingly unlikely." The report notes that, "Only once has the Republican polling leader in midsummer of the year before the election gone on to lose the party's nomination." That person was Rudy Giuliani, who led the 2008 GOP race all through 2007, with a lead that sometimes stretched to 14 points, only to fall apart when the actual voting began in 2008. At the same time, in 2007, the John McCain campaign imploded, ran out of money and rebooted, with McCain somehow going on to win the nomination.

That's the model, pretty much the only model, for a DeSantis comeback. And remember, Giuliani led the GOP race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, until January 2008. In today's terms, that would translate into Trump leading the GOP polls for five more months before fading. DeSantis, burdened by sinking polls and campaign difficulties, would then stage a McCain-style surge. It's possible, maybe.

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Source:  https://townhall.com/columnists/byronyork/2023/08/02/alarm-goes-out-trump-could-win-n2626489

[LMAO]

The path that Trump might have is a repeat of 2016 were enough democrat voters stayed home to give Trump a squeaker over Hillary through the EC

                          Or

Taking the George W. Bush 2004 states. Both are possible, but unlikely. He’s won’t take Wisconsin and for sure will not  take Michigan like he did in 2016. Unlikely he’ll win Georgia or the southwest

[kevindavis007]

The path that Trump might have is a repeat of 2016 were enough democrat voters stayed home to give Trump a squeaker over Hillary through the EC

                          Or

Taking the George W. Bush 2004 states. Both are possible, but unlikely. He’s won’t take Wisconsin and for sure will not  take Michigan like he did in 2016. Unlikely he’ll win Georgia or the southwest

I also see Trump losing North Carolina

[cato potatoe]

Nominating Trump is exactly what the dems want.  Damaging information will be released throughout 2024.  He isn't going to win Georgia after his trial there, and he isn't going to win Pennsylvania or Michigan where he destroyed the party.  I am going to be surprised if he turns out enough rural voters to carry North Carolina; the suburban voters cannot stand him.  And so, his electoral college advantage is gone. 

[kevindavis007]

Nominating Trump is exactly what the dems want.  Damaging information will be released throughout 2024.  He isn't going to win Georgia after his trial there, and he isn't going to win Pennsylvania or Michigan where he destroyed the party.  I am going to be surprised if he turns out enough rural voters to carry North Carolina; the suburban voters cannot stand him.  And so, his electoral college advantage is gone.

Here are the states that Turmp is going to lose in 2024:


Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Arizona
Georgia
North Carolina


May lose:


Iowa


Win but close

Florida
Texas

[catfish1957]

Here are the states that Turmp is going to lose in 2024:




Win but close


Texas

Biden's toxic here.  Won't be close. GOP POTUS candidate will win by 7-12%  OTOH, Ask me again in about 2032 when the demographics adjust and tighten.

[DefiantMassRINO]

If the GOP nominee is Trump or DeSantis, Biden wins.

Sadistic psychopaths may have a competitive advantage in the GOP primaries, but they will underperform in the General Election.

[Kamaji]

If the GOP nominee is Trump or DeSantis, Biden wins.

Sadistic psychopaths may have a competitive advantage in the GOP primaries, but they will underperform in the General Election.

Trump probably; DeSantis no.

[libertybele]

If the GOP nominee is Trump or DeSantis, Biden wins.

Sadistic psychopaths may have a competitive advantage in the GOP primaries, but they will underperform in the General Election.

So @DefiantMassRINO who do you suggest as the GOP candidate to win over Biden???

Are you referring to DeSantis as a psychopath??

[ScottinVA]

No damned way Trump wins in 2024.  The MAGAs will carry him to the GOP nomination, but he will lose the general election by monumental proportions.  Many dems stayed home in 2016, allowing him to pull off the upset against Hillary, but will turn out in massive numbers and swamp him next time around.