Arizona braces for most unpredictable Senate race: ‘An absolute dogfight’
by Samantha-Jo Roth, Congressional Reporter |
July 08, 2023 07:00 AM
PHOENIX — Sixteen months ahead of a major election in one of the nation’s premier battleground states, experts on both sides of the aisle agree on one thing: They have no idea how Arizona’s Senate race in 2024 is going to play out.
The race could feature incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left her party to become an independent last year, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), the progressive likely Democratic nominee who announced his run in January, and Kari Lake, a polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year. This all could ultimately result in a three-way race in a state that is 34% Republican, 34% independent, and 30% Democratic, according to Arizona's data.
Over the last couple of months, the race has been at a standstill. Sinema has not yet said if she is running for a second term. The only Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced his candidacy in April but is widely considered an underdog if he were to be in a Republican primary against Lake, who also has not made her intentions to run official. Gallego appears to be the only candidate actively campaigning, holding multiple monthly town halls across the state.
“Not much has really happened, and that’s because Lake has essentially frozen the field. We thought she was going to announce two-three weeks ago,” said Mike Noble, chief researcher at the independent Phoenix-based polling group Noble Predictive Insights.
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