Want the Next President to be a Republican? Steer Clear of Trump

[Kamaji]

Want the Next President to be a Republican?  Steer Clear of Trump

What is the goal of a political battle?

By Carpe Diem
June 1, 2023

Current polling indicates that Donald Trump is likely to become the Republican nominee for the third time. But he does not appear to have a realistic path to the White House.

To win the presidency, Trump will need to convince Americans who are not fervently in his camp, as well as independents and other non Republicans to vote for him. That is no easy task for an individual who has managed to alienate virtually everyone who is not part of the MAGA faithful.

If Trump is the Republican nominee again in 2024, he will likely win few Democrat voters. Even independents fed up with Joe Biden’s failures and utter incompetence are unlikely to choose Trump in the general election.

Despite Trump’s many successes while in the White House, voters seem to have grown tired of his self-serving, narcissistic character, and petulant behavior. Making matters worse, unlike Democratic voters, Republicans are less likely to vote for the GOP nominee, especially one as polarizing as Trump.

And while many voters believe that Trump was cheated out of a second term, it does the Republican Party no favors to nominate him, only to have him lose to a feeble and often confused man, or to whichever radical leftist the Democrats decide to throw out there.

A primary victory followed by what is likely to be an inevitable loss in the general election will not only be a huge blow to the former president, it will also be a blow to the future of America.

*  *  *

Where is the evidence that Trump can win the general election? Several polls—for whatever they’re worth—indicate that if the election were held today, Biden would still defeat Trump in several battleground states, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would defeat Biden in those same polls.

If past precedent is any indication, DeSantis has a far greater shot of picking up Democratic and independent voters in a general election than Trump. Consider that in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, DeSantis won independent voters by at least 20 percent—a 30-point bump in ballot share from his narrow victory in 2018. He won Hispanic voters by at least 14 percent—a 22-point increase in ballot share from 2018 and the highest share of the nonwhite vote for a Republican in Florida history. And perhaps most impressively, DeSantis won female voters by at least 7 percent—a 16-point increase in ballot share from 2018.

*  *  *

Are independents—let alone disenchanted Democrats—clamoring for a second Trump term? How well did Trump’s Senate and congressional candidates do in November compared to DeSantis’ historic, nearly 20-point landslide victory? How many prominent members of Trump’s administration are even lukewarm supporters? One hundred-fifty former Trump officials have already endorsed DeSantis.

*  *  *

Additionally, Trump seems to be moving left on abortion and entitlement reform, so there is no guarantee that if elected he will continue some of his prior conservative policies.

*  *  *

Source:  https://amgreatness.com/2023/06/01/want-the-next-president-to-be-a-republican-steer-clear-of-trump/

[Maj. Bill Martin]

I really hate the "Trump was cheated" mantra because it makes it sound like he is owed the Presidency in 2024.

 If you truly believe the 2020 election was stolen, the outrage should be that we voters were denied our choice in 2020, and so we voters should have our choice in 2024.

The obvious difference between those two ways of looking at things is that we voters may prefer someone other than Trump in 2024, and so he is "owed" nothing by us or by anyone else.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Latest poll I saw showed Trump with an almost 50 point lead over Desantis. I think we're stuck with him.

[Idiot]

Want the Next President to be a Republican?  Steer Clear of Trump

What is the goal of a political battle?

By Carpe Diem
June 1, 2023

Current polling indicates that Donald Trump is likely to become the Republican nominee for the third time. But he does not appear to have a realistic path to the White House.

To win the presidency, Trump will need to convince Americans who are not fervently in his camp, as well as independents and other non Republicans to vote for him. That is no easy task for an individual who has managed to alienate virtually everyone who is not part of the MAGA faithful.

If Trump is the Republican nominee again in 2024, he will likely win few Democrat voters. Even independents fed up with Joe Biden’s failures and utter incompetence are unlikely to choose Trump in the general election.

Despite Trump’s many successes while in the White House, voters seem to have grown tired of his self-serving, narcissistic character, and petulant behavior. Making matters worse, unlike Democratic voters, Republicans are less likely to vote for the GOP nominee, especially one as polarizing as Trump.

And while many voters believe that Trump was cheated out of a second term, it does the Republican Party no favors to nominate him, only to have him lose to a feeble and often confused man, or to whichever radical leftist the Democrats decide to throw out there.

A primary victory followed by what is likely to be an inevitable loss in the general election will not only be a huge blow to the former president, it will also be a blow to the future of America.

*  *  *

Where is the evidence that Trump can win the general election? Several polls—for whatever they’re worth—indicate that if the election were held today, Biden would still defeat Trump in several battleground states, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would defeat Biden in those same polls.

If past precedent is any indication, DeSantis has a far greater shot of picking up Democratic and independent voters in a general election than Trump. Consider that in the 2022 Florida gubernatorial election, DeSantis won independent voters by at least 20 percent—a 30-point bump in ballot share from his narrow victory in 2018. He won Hispanic voters by at least 14 percent—a 22-point increase in ballot share from 2018 and the highest share of the nonwhite vote for a Republican in Florida history. And perhaps most impressively, DeSantis won female voters by at least 7 percent—a 16-point increase in ballot share from 2018.

*  *  *

Are independents—let alone disenchanted Democrats—clamoring for a second Trump term? How well did Trump’s Senate and congressional candidates do in November compared to DeSantis’ historic, nearly 20-point landslide victory? How many prominent members of Trump’s administration are even lukewarm supporters? One hundred-fifty former Trump officials have already endorsed DeSantis.

*  *  *

Additionally, Trump seems to be moving left on abortion and entitlement reform, so there is no guarantee that if elected he will continue some of his prior conservative policies.

*  *  *

Source:  https://amgreatness.com/2023/06/01/want-the-next-president-to-be-a-republican-steer-clear-of-trump/

The problem with Trump is that people aren't luke warm about him, you either love him or absolutely hate him.  There are so many people that hate him that he can't possibly win, and you aren't going to change their minds.

[Kamaji]

I really hate the "Trump was cheated" mantra because it makes it sound like he is owed the Presidency in 2024.

 If you truly believe the 2020 election was stolen, the outrage should be that we voters were denied our choice in 2020, and so we voters should have our choice in 2024.

The obvious difference between those two ways of looking at things is that we voters may prefer someone other than Trump in 2024, and so he is "owed" nothing by us or by anyone else.

[Idiot]

Latest poll I saw showed Trump with an almost 50 point lead over Desantis. I think we're stuck with him.

Yup, Trump will win the primaries more than likely, unless he's in jail, which is entirely possible.  Trump will then start to complain that no one is financially supporting him, why would you support a guy that can't possibly win?  When he gets slaughtered in the general election it will be everyone's fault but his.  Just ask him. 

[DB]

He's the Hillary Clinton of the GOP. Can't win, widely disliked, but damn it, they earned it. They will destroy anyone or anything that "cheats" them out of it.

[DefiantMassRINO]

Trump won't let GOP steer clear of him because he has fundraising and primary voter leverage over the Republican Party.

The mainstream GOP keeps hoping Trump will go away, but, yet, continue to enable his dominance over the party.

Anyone who really wants the GOP 2024 Nomination has to be willing to kick both Trump and Biden in the nuts.

Trump's vulnerability is his erratic personality.

Biden's vulnerability is inflation and his inflationary domestic energy policies.

For all his faults, Trump is a media manipulation genius and will offer himself as an alternative to far-right conservatives' scorched earth policy towards Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Benefits.

[Fishrrman]

Once more, if Mr. Trump can't win, then no one else can win, either.

It's not only about personalities this time (and for the future).
It's now about "the election apparatus" that The Party can use to control elections in those five or six critical states without which the Republicans can't win the presidency.

Those states are:
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Georgia

Virginia and North Carolina will be touchy, as well.

But for "the five" -- NOTHING has been done in them that will thwart or even expose "the apparatus".

I've posted this again and again and again.
But no one ever seems willing to challenge it.

So long as the DCommunists can control the outcomes in "the five" states above, it's mathematically impossible for the Pubbies to win the presidency.

Be it Mr. Trump or anyone else (like your darlin' DeSantis)...

[bigheadfred]

Once more, if Mr. Trump can't win, then no one else can win, either.

It's not only about personalities this time (and for the future).
It's now about "the election apparatus" that The Party can use to control elections in those five or six critical states without which the Republicans can't win the presidency.

Those states are:
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Georgia

Virginia and North Carolina will be touchy, as well.

But for "the five" -- NOTHING has been done in them that will thwart or even expose "the apparatus".

I've posted this again and again and again.
But no one ever seems willing to challenge it.

So long as the DCommunists can control the outcomes in "the five" states above, it's mathematically impossible for the Pubbies to win the presidency.

Be it Mr. Trump or anyone else (like your darlin' DeSantis)...

@Fishrrman

I completely agree. Personally, I don't have a pick for POTUS. But I do know I am not going to sit up election night clenching my butt and anxiously watching swing state returns hoping for a miracle.

[corbe]

  Nixon came back 8 years after the Kennedy Clan stole it from him in 60.  Maybe Trump should sit low and allow the 'Young Guns' to take over 

[roamer_1]

He'll play hell winning without Florida. And with all the smack he's been talking about her...

[libertybele]

Once more, if Mr. Trump can't win, then no one else can win, either.

It's not only about personalities this time (and for the future).
It's now about "the election apparatus" that The Party can use to control elections in those five or six critical states without which the Republicans can't win the presidency.

Those states are:
- Pennsylvania
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Arizona
- Georgia

Virginia and North Carolina will be touchy, as well.

But for "the five" -- NOTHING has been done in them that will thwart or even expose "the apparatus".

I've posted this again and again and again.
But no one ever seems willing to challenge it.

So long as the DCommunists can control the outcomes in "the five" states above, it's mathematically impossible for the Pubbies to win the presidency.

Be it Mr. Trump or anyone else (like your darlin' DeSantis)...

By your playbook, then the GOP won't win. They may take AZ and WI, the other states they won't take.

[libertybele]

Trump won't let GOP steer clear of him because he has fundraising and primary voter leverage over the Republican Party.

The mainstream GOP keeps hoping Trump will go away, but, yet, continue to enable his dominance over the party.

Anyone who really wants the GOP 2024 Nomination has to be willing to kick both Trump and Biden in the nuts.

Trump's vulnerability is his erratic personality.

Biden's vulnerability is inflation and his inflationary domestic energy policies.

For all his faults, Trump is a media manipulation genius and will offer himself as an alternative to far-right conservatives' scorched earth policy towards Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Benefits.

Hannity helped Trump to dominate the airwaves.  I don't think that is going to happen this time around.   Trump's greatest asset is his ability to connect with his audience.  However, Trump is losing some of his base.  He's also caught up in legal battles; that's not going to change anytime soon.

Trump has already stated that he refuses to debate, so who do we really have left on the debate stage?  A debate between DeSantis, Christie, Hutchison, Scott and Haley??  DeSantis will have no competition.  OR will the RNC do away with the debates altogether??

[corbe]

By your playbook, then the GOP won't win. They may take AZ and WI, the other states they won't take.

   All we have to do is beat them by an insurmountable margin >5% (more than they can cheat). We've done it before, barely in 2000 and in 2016 in this century alone.
   I'm still hopeful.