Radio Free Europe by Vazha Tavberidze 5/24/2023
Roman Anin is a Russian investigative journalist who worked for Novaya gazeta and was among the founders of the independent iStories outlet in 2020.
He has taught journalism in Moscow and worked with international networks including the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) and the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), in addition to his work investigating millions of documents leaked among the so-called Panama Papers. He has also reported deeply on the leadership within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
In 2021, Russian authorities labeled him a “foreign agent.” He resides abroad.
Anin spoke with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service recently about potential risks to Vladimir Putin stemming from the Russian leader’s decision to invade Ukraine, the current maneuvering for power by men like Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and National Guard head Viktor Zolotov, and whether a possible Russian defeat in Ukraine could spell a new Time of Troubles.
RFE/RL: Many Western experts are skeptical of a scenario in which Putin is challenged or ousted inside Russia and the Kremlin. If the title of your piece (on iStories in January) is anything to go by -- A Clan War For Putin's Throne Has Begun -- you don’t share that skepticism. Why not?
Roman Anin: I believe that the war of clans for his throne has begun. It doesn't mean that they will overthrow him. Putin is 70-something years old; he’s not a young man. That means that his circle understands that sooner rather than later he will die or he will step down. They realize that they need to work on the different scenarios after his death. And the problem of his circle is that it’s so split, they have been constantly fighting against each other for dozens of years now, for access to him, for the opportunity to influence his decisions, for power. These fights were sometimes not “cold” but fought.
There are plenty of examples. Take [Security Council member and National Guard (Rosgvardiya) Director Viktor] Zolotov, for example, who is very close to Putin -- or rather used to be very close to Putin. He used to be his bodyguard, a guy who spends most of his time together with Putin.
Zolotov hates [Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Aleksandr] Bortnikov, and Bortnikov hates Zolotov; they’re constantly fighting. That makes it very difficult for them to agree about a possible successor. And that’s why I think that it actually increases the chances that one of them, or a coalition of them, will start acting even before Putin’s death or before he loses power -- just because they will realize that they don't want to lose time.
RFE/RL: When you write that a battle for Putin’s throne is already raging, what do these people want: to replace Putin or to get closer to the tsar, to whisper in his ear?
Anin: It's even simpler. They want to save their lives, assets, the lives of their relatives. They understand that after Russia loses the war -- because nobody among them believes in the victory anymore -- they understand that it will be the starting point of this battle for the throne. And the one who loses the battle will lose everything -- power, assets….
Imagine that the next president of Russia is somebody from [Nikolai] Patrushev’s clan, who is the head of the National Security Council of Russia, one of the major governmental bodies of the country. That means that people who were fighting against him during all these years will not be able to save their assets, and even [their] lives or maybe freedom, and they understand that. And that’s what I believe will make a war really be fought. They will be fighting for their lives.
Because the other problem is that they're stuck on this boat -- because of the sanctions, because of their involvement in various crimes. They can't leave the country. They can't just say, “OK, let's betray Putin and go somewhere.” They’re stuck there. And imagine snakes stuck in the same bottle and they just hate each other.
RFE/RL: What’s the take of Putin himself on this power struggle? One interpretation is that he’s trying to set his underlings against each other so as to remain strong while they’re being weakened.
Anin: Before the war, that really was a part of his strategy. He loves to behave as judge in those battles of the inner circle. Today, it's obviously not the case, because those public clashes between [former bodyguard and Wagner Group founder Yevgeny] Prigozhin and [Defense Minister Sergei] Shoigu, between Prigozhin and [Chechen Republic head Ramzan] Kadyrov, they definitely don't make Putin's power stronger. It's vice versa; they're making it weaker.
More:
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html
